Educational use only. SAVNG is a research tool, not investment advice. Models can be wrong. Past performance does not predict future results. Verify every figure before risking capital.
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Market risk — right now
Across the 3,525 stocks we can value right now
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
41 /100 Elevated ▼ -8 mild
Higher than 3% of the last 36 days we've tracked.
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
62 /100 High ◆ flat
Shiller CAPE 42.6× — U.S. valuations are richer than ~99% of the past ~145 years.
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago (2026-08-09) — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 3,525 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
28 Moderate
▼ -22
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 3,525 stocks.
51 Elevated
◆ flat
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
51 Elevated
▲ +5
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
51.2%
Elevated
▲ +2 pt
Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.
51%
Elevated
▼ -2 pt
Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.
36%
Moderate
▼ -2 pt
Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 5,384 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.
Driving "right now": sentiment at greed.
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Don't outsource your judgment

We backtest our own insider signals in public — winners and losers, nothing deleted.

Most "insider buying beats the market" claims fall apart once you stop double-counting and compare against the right benchmark. Ours mostly does too — so instead of selling you a number, we show you the honest scorecard: every signal type graded against the S&P 500 and small-caps, and a public ledger of every high-conviction call, timestamped before the outcome exists.

281
signals logged & graded as they mature
Broad insider buying: +2.6% vs S&P · -2.0% vs small-caps
Beats the market 41% of the time — not a proven edge. The honest scorecard shows where it is and isn't.
Hypothetical event-study returns from public SEC filings and our own models — no trading costs; past performance does not predict future results. Educational, not investment advice. Methodology & disclosures.

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The underlying readings Regime: Neutral / mid-cycle as of 2026-08-16

No extreme readings in either direction. Stock selection matters more than macro positioning right now.

Shiller CAPE ?Shiller CAPE
Shiller CAPE — the S&P 500 price divided by its 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. The longest valuation record we have (since 1871). Readings above ~38 have happened only twice: the 1999 dot-com peak and today. High CAPE historically means weak long-run returns.
Source: multpl.com (Shiller CAPE)
42.6x
Extreme (near record)
Yield curve (10y–2y) ?Yield curve (10y–2y)
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, in percentage points. An inverted curve (long rates below short) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s. The 10y–3m spread is +82bp.
Source: FRED (T10Y2Y / T10Y3M)
+51bp
Normal (upward)
Credit spread (HY) ?Credit spread (HY)
High-yield credit spread — the extra yield junk bonds pay over Treasuries. Widening spreads mean investors are demanding more for default risk; it's an early stress signal that usually leads equity selloffs.
Source: FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
2.71%
Tight (complacent)
VIX ?VIX
Market expectation of S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days. High = nervous; low = complacent.
Source: Stooq (^VIX)
14.3
Calm
Fear & Greed ?Fear & Greed
Composite of put/call ratios, breadth, momentum, and safe-haven demand. Contrarian indicator — extreme fear historically marks bottoms; extreme greed marks tops.
Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index
65
Greed
10Y Yield ?10Y Yield
Yield on the 10-year US Treasury. Higher rates compress equity valuations and raise the bar for risk-on bets.
Source: FRED (DGS10)
4.63%
Elevated
Inflation (10y exp.) ?Inflation (10y exp.)
10-year breakeven inflation (nominal Treasury minus inflation-protected TIPS yield) — the market's expected average annual inflation over the next decade. It's the silent tax on every nominal return.
Source: FRED (T10YIE)
2.27%
Moderate
DXY ?DXY
US dollar strength vs basket of major currencies. Strong dollar pressures multinational earnings and emerging markets.
Source: Stooq (^DXY)
99.64
Stable
Gold ?Gold
Spot gold. Rising gold often reflects inflation fear or risk-off positioning.
Source: FRED (London PM fix)
$4,437
Per troy oz
Oil (WTI) ?Oil (WTI)
WTI crude oil $/barrel. High oil raises input costs across the economy and pushes inflation up; low oil can signal weakening demand.
Source: FRED (DCOILWTICO)
$84.77
Mid-range
BTC ?BTC
Bitcoin as a risk-on liquidity indicator. Rallies often coincide with broad risk-asset rallies; sharp drops can precede equity weakness.
Source: CoinGecko
$63,153
$63,153
M1 supply ?M1 supply
M1 money supply (cash + checking deposits). Falling M1 signals tightening liquidity; rising suggests stimulus is loose.
Source: FRED (M1SL)
$19.8T
$19.8T
Sources: FRED (rates, curve, credit) · multpl (Shiller CAPE) · CNN Fear & Greed · CoinGecko · Stooq. The verdict block on each stock page interprets these in context.

What you get on every page

Not a black-box buy/sell signal — a transparent valuation snapshot you can sanity-check.

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DCF intrinsic value

Five-model engine (FCF DCF, Residual Income, DDM, Normalized FCF, Growth DCF) auto-routes by sector + data quality. Conservative / base / optimistic scenarios weight into one IV range with margin-of-safety vs current price.

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NCAV bargain screener

Graham's net-net screen surfaces companies trading below liquidation value. Almost always small caps in distress — risky as individual picks, statistically powerful as a basket. We flag, you decide.

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AI news + sentiment

Gemini-summarized recent news, analyst commentary, social sentiment, and three relevant YouTube videos per stock. Lightweight context layer on top of the hard numbers — not a recommendation.

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What people are looking at this week

Most-visited stocks with market cap above $100M.

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Browse the universe

Slice ~10,000 SEC-registered US stocks by sector, theme, size, or verdict.

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Sectors

Technology, Health Care, Financials, Energy, and 7 more — drilled down to industry.
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Themes

AI, Cybersecurity, EVs, Quantum, Graphene, Defense, Nuclear — 50 curated tags.
⬢

By market cap

Mega-cap to micro-cap. Big = stable + heavily covered. Small = volatile + mispriced more often.
◆

By verdict

Undervalued / Fair / Premium based on price vs intrinsic value. Recomputed daily.
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Insider signals

SEC Form 4 buys filtered by the academic "routine vs. opportunistic" method — cluster buys, rare buyers, and our DCF-value overlay.

Ready to look up a stock?

Every page shows our DCF, anchor comparisons, and AI summary side-by-side. Verify every number yourself before risking capital.

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Important. SAVNG is published by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. All content is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Models can be wrong, data sources can be wrong, and the future can surprise everyone. Consult a licensed financial advisor before risking capital. See full disclaimer.