Market Risk

Don't outsource your judgment

Risk is never invisible. It's just quiet until it isn't.

Credit spreads widen, insiders stop buying, valuations stretch — all of it in public, all of it before the headline. This board puts those readings in one place, for the whole market and every sector and theme, with the ingredients and weights shown. A high score is not a prediction and not a sell signal. It's context, early. What you do with it is yours.

The whole market — right now

Sort the sectors and themes below by what looks riskiest

⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months

46 /100 Elevated ▼ -3 slight

Higher than 75% of the last 67 days we've tracked.

Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history

65 /100 High ▲ +1 slight

Shiller CAPE 40.5× — U.S. valuations are richer than ~99% of the past ~145 years.

▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago (2026-09-10) — red = risk rising, green = falling.

Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 3,538 stocks valued

Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.

39 Moderate

▼ -3

Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 3,538 stocks.

52 Elevated

▲ +1

Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.

51 Elevated

▼ -7

Smart money — the three inputs

Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.

52.0%

Elevated

◆ flat pt

Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.

54%

Elevated

◆ flat pt

Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.

35%

Moderate

▼ -6 pt

Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 4,625 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.

Driving "right now": the market is pulling back from its highs · short-selling elevated (52% of volume).

Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.

Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

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