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Verdict

Deep Undervalued

Every analyzed stock in Deep Undervalued — 1,156 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Deep Undervalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Deep Undervalued" here means IRR 10–30 points over Treasuries on a believable coupon (yield ≤ 25%; anything richer is a data flag, shown only on the full table). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR 10–30 points over Treasuries, yield ≤ 25% · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +3.0 pts (859 entries, 262 companies, could be luck). 47% of entries beat the S&P; 18% beat it by 30 points or more; 27% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +1.3 pts.
+3.0 ptsvs S&P, average
47%beat the S&P
18%up 30+ pts vs S&P
27%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+6.2 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
1.9luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.3 pts 47% beat6 mo: +0.1 pts 45% beat12 mo: +3.0 pts 47% beat24 mo: +4.6 pts 43% beat3 yr, per yr: −0.9 pts 39% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today717+1.9 pts t 1.3+5.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)142+8.3 pts t 1.5+10.1 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing271+0.6 pts t 0.2−5.0 pts
Retail & consumer108+10.1 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts
Services84−1.9 pts t -0.3−1.9 pts
Energy70+2.6 pts t 0.4−5.7 pts
Tech hardware & semis62−1.9 pts t -0.5−0.8 pts
Other60−4.2 pts t -0.8−3.3 pts
Finance & real estate46+5.9 pts t 1.5+6.8 pts
Biotech & pharma30−1.8 pts t -0.2−4.7 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +5.4 pts (n 309, t 2.6). From 2018: +1.6 pts (n 550, t 0.8). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−11 pts+6 pts+6 pts−6 pts−4 pts+19 pts+9 pts−10 pts−14 pts+46 pts+5 pts+7 pts−14 pts−12 pts+3 pts
n13244556072455362746079897558

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

TUSK
MAMMOTH ENERGY SERVICES, INC.
Demanding to believe
Energy Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield23.1%
Growth used4.0%
10-yr IRR34.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.99
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +4.0% · above model
OWL
BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC.
Demanding to believe
Financial Services Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield14.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR33.7%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.32
Market implies +4.3%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
DCGO
DocGo Inc.
Demanding to believe
Healthcare Risk 29 · Moderate
Yield23.5%
Growth used3.2%
10-yr IRR33.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.54
Market implies -18.8%/yr vs model +3.2% · below model
CALM
CAL-MAINE FOODS INC
Demanding to believe
Basic Materials Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield19.2%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR33.5%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.42
Market implies -4.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
NUS
NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Defensive Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield24.1%
Growth used2.6%
10-yr IRR33.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.69
Market implies -8.3%/yr vs model +2.6% · below model
CCLD
CareCloud, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield23.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR33.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.37
Market implies -17.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
SKYW
SKYWEST INC
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield19.1%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR33.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.44
Market implies -4.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
CAL
CALERES INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Yield20.5%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR33.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.83
Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +6.2% · above model
TRN
TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield15.4%
Growth used12.9%
10-yr IRR33.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.30
Market implies -7.4%/yr vs model +12.9% · below model
XYF
X Financial
Demanding to believe
Financial Services Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield13.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR33.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.21
Market implies -8.0%/yr vs model +18.8% · below model
FISV
FISERV INC
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 31 · Moderate
Yield15.5%
Growth used12.4%
10-yr IRR32.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.32
Market implies -7.3%/yr vs model +12.4% · below model
DIN
Dine Brands Global, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield19.9%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR32.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.72
Market implies -1.5%/yr vs model +6.5% · below model
PRTH
Priority Technology Holdings, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield13.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR32.7%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.51
Market implies -0.3%/yr vs model +15.3% · below model
WEN
Wendy's Co
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield17.2%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR32.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.24
Market implies -12.0%/yr vs model +9.7% · below model
CAPS
Capstone Holding Corp.
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield22.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR32.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
ALGT
Allegiant Travel CO
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield17.1%
Growth used9.5%
10-yr IRR32.3%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.45
Market implies -5.4%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
MGM
MGM Resorts International
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield13.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR32.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.31
Market implies -4.2%/yr vs model +17.6% · below model
XPOF
Xponential Fitness, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Communication Services Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield13.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR32.0%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.21
Market implies +4.4%/yr vs model +16.0% · below model
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield18.7%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR32.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.37
Market implies -10.5%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
CROX
Crocs, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield13.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR32.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.37
Market implies -1.8%/yr vs model +16.8% · below model
SMPL
Simply Good Foods Co
Demanding to believe
Consumer Defensive Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield17.6%
Growth used8.2%
10-yr IRR31.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.24
Market implies -13.8%/yr vs model +8.2% · below model
ABG
ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield13.4%
Growth used14.4%
10-yr IRR31.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.20
Market implies -10.6%/yr vs model +14.4% · below model
SGC
SUPERIOR GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 68 · High
Yield20.6%
Growth used4.6%
10-yr IRR31.7%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.63
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +4.6% · above model
SAMG
Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc.
Demanding to believe
Financial Services Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield19.8%
Growth used5.4%
10-yr IRR31.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.40
Market implies -11.9%/yr vs model +5.4% · below model
HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield21.8%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR31.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.66
Market implies -5.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
FLO
FLOWERS FOODS INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Defensive Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield21.0%
Growth used3.6%
10-yr IRR31.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.26
Market implies -17.2%/yr vs model +3.6% · below model
NRDS
NERDWALLET, INC.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield12.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR31.1%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.23
Market implies -5.8%/yr vs model +18.9% · below model
HMR
Heidmar Maritime Holdings Corp.
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield12.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR31.1%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.30
Market implies -2.7%/yr vs model +17.9% · below model
ACDC
ProFrac Holding Corp.
Demanding to believe
Energy Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield17.0%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR30.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.28
Market implies -14.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
VLGEA
VILLAGE SUPER MARKET INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Defensive Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield20.2%
Growth used3.9%
10-yr IRR30.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -16.1%/yr vs model +3.9% · below model
CRTO
Criteo S.A.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield17.7%
Growth used6.9%
10-yr IRR30.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.11
Market implies -8.1%/yr vs model +6.9% · below model
IEP
ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P.
Demanding to believe
Energy Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield23.6%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR30.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies -6.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
PVH
PVH CORP. /DE/
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield17.4%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR30.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.57
Market implies -6.1%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
CPRI
Capri Holdings Ltd
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High
Yield16.6%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR30.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.93
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
MNRO
MONRO, INC.
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield21.2%
Growth used2.2%
10-yr IRR29.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.64
Market implies -8.3%/yr vs model +2.2% · below model
IMXI
International Money Express, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield13.3%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR29.9%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.27
Market implies -8.3%/yr vs model +12.7% · below model
JBI
Janus International Group, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield23.1%
Growth used0.2%
10-yr IRR29.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.14
Market implies -1.7%/yr vs model +0.2% · in line
TIMB
TIM S.A.
Demanding to believe
Communication Services Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield16.7%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR29.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.24
Market implies -12.6%/yr vs model +7.3% · below model
FMS
Fresenius Medical Care AG
Demanding to believe
Healthcare Risk 29 · Moderate
Yield17.3%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR29.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.20
Market implies -15.0%/yr vs model +6.5% · below model
LULU
lululemon athletica inc.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield11.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR29.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +15.4% · below model
JCSE
JE Cleantech Holdings Ltd
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Yield12.7%
Growth used13.2%
10-yr IRR29.5%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.19
Market implies -14.5%/yr vs model +13.2% · below model
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Healthcare Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield12.8%
Growth used13.1%
10-yr IRR29.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.45
Market implies +1.4%/yr vs model +13.1% · below model
IRWD
IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS INC
Demanding to believe
Healthcare Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield20.7%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR29.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.74
Market implies -2.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
ALK
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield15.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR29.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.05
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
LOVE
Lovesac Co
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield13.9%
Growth used10.7%
10-yr IRR29.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies -1.7%/yr vs model +10.7% · below model
KBH
KB HOME
Demanding to believe
Industrials Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield16.2%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR29.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies +2.2%/yr vs model +7.3% · below model
PRGS
PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORP /MA
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield11.5%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR29.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.33
Market implies -1.1%/yr vs model +15.1% · below model
CLW
Clearwater Paper Corp
Demanding to believe
Basic Materials Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield22.4%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR29.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.23
Market implies -21.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
TRIP
TripAdvisor, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 64 · High
Yield11.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR28.8%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.33
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model +19.0% · below model
NRP
NATURAL RESOURCE PARTNERS LP
Demanding to believe
Energy Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield16.5%
Growth used6.7%
10-yr IRR28.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.29
Market implies -10.5%/yr vs model +6.7% · below model
F
FORD MOTOR CO
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 22 · Moderate
Yield15.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR28.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.63
Market implies -3.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
OLN
OLIN Corp
Demanding to believe
Basic Materials Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield21.9%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR28.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.46
Market implies -21.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
EVTC
EVERTEC, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield11.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR28.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.31
Market implies -2.7%/yr vs model +15.1% · below model
ADNT
Adient plc
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield18.7%
Growth used3.5%
10-yr IRR28.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies -1.3%/yr vs model +3.5% · below model
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield15.9%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR28.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.59
Market implies -2.9%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
LEG
LEGGETT & PLATT INC
Demanding to believe
Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield23.0%
Growth used-1.4%
10-yr IRR28.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.83
Market implies -8.6%/yr vs model -1.4% · below model
LILAK
Liberty Latin America Ltd.
Demanding to believe
Communication Services Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield16.0%
Growth used6.8%
10-yr IRR28.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.35
Market implies -8.6%/yr vs model +6.8% · below model
TASK
TaskUs, Inc.
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield12.6%
Growth used11.8%
10-yr IRR28.0%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.62
Market implies +5.3%/yr vs model +11.8% · below model
LBTYK
Liberty Global Ltd.
Demanding to believe
Communication Services Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield21.5%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR28.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.30
Market implies -23.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
MRDN
Meridian Holdings Inc./NV
Demanding to believe
Technology Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield10.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR27.9%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.27
Market implies +1.2%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model