Insider Signals

The people who know the business best bought it with their own money.
It didn't make the news.

It was public the whole time — filed with the SEC, free to read, buried in thousands of routine filings nobody has time to sort. Over half of all insider trades carry zero predictive power (Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski, Journal of Finance). We apply their filter to every Form 4 we scan — discarding routine trades and automated 10b5-1 plan sales, isolating irregularly-timed, open-market buys made with the insider's own cash — then rank them against our DCF value, because the research says insider buying pays off mainly in undervalued companies, not expensive ones.

Below is the filter, the signals it surfaces, and an honest scorecard of whether it has actually worked. None of it tells you what to do. It tells you what happened, early enough to matter. You make the call.

Raw SEC Form 4 data
 ├── [FILTER OUT] Routine trades — same calendar month, 3+ consecutive years
 ├── [FILTER OUT] Automated selling — Rule 10b5-1 scheduled plans
 ├── [FILTER OUT] Option exercises & grants — not open-market cash
 └── [ISOLATE] Opportunistic buys — irregular timing, open market, own cash → then scored on skin in the game, and ranked against our DCF value

A board member worth $400M buying $100K of stock is couch-cushion money — closer to PR than conviction. A VP earning $250K putting in $50K and doubling their entire stake is a real bet. Absolute dollars can't tell those apart. Relative size can. So our conviction score (0–100) weighs, in order:

• How much they grew their own stake (or opened a brand-new position) — the heaviest weight.
• Who they are — CFOs and COOs live in the cash flow and the order book; independent directors often buy for optics.
• Cluster (several insiders acting independently) and rarity (someone who almost never buys).
• Personal capital held directly, not moved around inside a trust or LLC.
• Absolute dollars — last, and worth the least.

Conviction measures the insider, not the stock — valuation (P/IV, debt) is kept as a separate column on purpose. And we don't score the offensive/defensive tag or an insider's past hit-rate: both are plausible but unproven on our data.

Full honesty: the scorecard below shows this score, as currently weighted, is not yet beating its own low-conviction control on our de-biased data — and directors have actually outperformed officers, the opposite of the usual assumption. We're publishing that rather than hiding it, and treating it as a mandate to re-weight the score toward what the data supports (relative stake size; price vs the insider's own cost) once the forward ledger backs it up. We won't quietly retrofit the score to fit past data.

Insider buying pays when the market is scared — and barely at all when it isn't.

We tested 69,355 insider buys from 2006 to today. The bars show how much better each period's buys did than a small-company index fund over the next 3 months:

Global financial crisis		+4.8%
Post-crisis recovery		+4.0%
Mid-cycle bull		+1.4%
AI-led recovery (now)		-0.2%

The full picture, explained plainly →

Conviction	Date	Stock	Insider	Buy value	Stake ↑	Signal flags	vs their price	P / IV (our DCF)	D / E	P / E
99	2026-06-04	AADX	McRae Jeffrey L. Chief Financial Officer	$500K	NEW	INITIAL BUY CFO / COO CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	—	—	0.48	—
76	2026-05-11	OLED UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP PA	ELIAS RICHARD C Director	$93K	+219%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-11.3%	2.33	0.00	16.2
84	2026-06-04	AADX	Katzman James C Director	$500K	+588%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	—	—	0.48	—
80	2026-06-04	AADX	Lynch Susan D Director	$160K	NEW	INITIAL BUY CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	—	—	0.48	—
76	2026-05-15	VVV VALVOLINE INC	Slater Jennifer Lynn Director	$33K	NEW	INITIAL BUY CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-1.5%	2.00	3.92	19.5
93	2026-06-05	NVRI ENVIRI Corp	Minan Peter Francis Executive Vice President & CFO	$160K	+103%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+	+18.8%	0.78	0.61	—
72	2026-06-12	CXT Crane NXT, Co.	Saak Aaron W CEO	$1.0M	+59%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+18.8%	0.88	1.15	20.0
70	2026-05-14	VVV VALVOLINE INC	WILLIS J KEVIN Chief Financial Officer	$318K	+44%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+0.7%	2.00	3.92	19.5
87	2026-06-03	NVRI ENVIRI Corp	Hochman Russell C. President and CEO	$1.0M	+55%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+	+17.7%	0.78	0.61	—
68	2026-06-12	CXT Crane NXT, Co.	Cristiano Christina SVP, Chief Financial Officer	$149K	+32%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+19.3%	0.88	1.15	20.0
83	2026-06-09	HTFC Horizon Technology Finance Corp	Seitz Paul G Chief Investment Officer	$50K	+1,500%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE	—	0.73	0.96	—
73	2026-05-13	FCN FTI CONSULTING, INC	Nam Eun Chief Financial Officer	$289K	+10%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+4.9%	0.90	0.76	18.4
64	2026-07-07	UUUU ENERGY FUELS INC	Bhappu Ross R. President and CEO	$968K	+41%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+10.6%	0.00	0.86	—
63	2026-05-14	VVV VALVOLINE INC	Freeland Richard Joseph Director	$100K	+24%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-1.1%	2.00	3.92	19.5
56	2026-05-22	DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc	Myers Jonathan EVP, Chief Revenue Officer	$100K	+3.1%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-6.5%	0.00	0.97	27.0
70	2026-06-11	OUT OUTFRONT Media Inc.	Norton James Michael EVP, CRO, Enterprise	$127K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	-6.0%	1.46	3.65	35.3
70	2026-06-03	XMTR Xometry, Inc.	Biewald Lukas Alexander Director	$4.0M	+583%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+8.9%	1.94	0.03	—
77	2026-05-11	MMSI MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC	Smith Christian Adam Chief Commercial Officer	$99K	+274%	CLUSTER ×5 RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE	+46.9%	0.78	0.44	42.1
67	2026-05-11	ACEL Accel Entertainment, Inc.	WARDINSKI BRUCE D Director	$578K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+2.9%	0.68	2.13	19.8
73	2026-05-12	MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.	Nitkin Robert Chief Operating Officer	$49K	+57%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×4 DIRECT	+20.4%	0.44	0.00	13.1
72	2026-05-12	PSN PARSONS CORP	Holdsworth Mark Keith Director	$348K	+33%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	-7.7%	0.65	0.57	21.6
51	2026-06-12	ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc.	Trivedi Shanker Director	$54K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-32.5%	0.00	0.52	28.2
70	2026-06-03	NVRI ENVIRI Corp	Purvis Edgar M Jr Director	$253K	+41%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+	+26.4%	0.78	0.61	—
56	2026-05-11	NSIT INSIGHT ENTERPRISES INC	Morgado James A. Chief Financial Officer	$200K	+15%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+84.5%	1.04	0.92	33.1
63	2026-06-30	ABSI Absci Corp	Szela Mary T Director	$149K	+154%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	-23.6%	0.00	0.02	—
69	2026-05-11	MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.	Richman Darren See Remarks	$1.1M	NEW	INITIAL BUY CLUSTER ×4 $100K+	+17.2%	0.44	0.00	13.1
55	2026-06-04	AADX	Goldstein Scott (NMN) Director	$10K	+12%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT STRONGEST EVIDENCE	—	—	0.48	—
49	2026-05-22	DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc	Timko Thomas S EVP, CFO	$50K	+0.9%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-7.7%	0.00	0.97	27.0
61	2026-05-15	TTEK TETRA TECH INC	Feeler Jeffrey R Director	$50K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+36.0%	0.57	0.57	38.6
67	2026-06-09	HTFC Horizon Technology Finance Corp	Balkin Michael Chief Executive Officer	$434K	+81%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+	—	0.73	0.96	—
67	2026-05-11	CAI Caris Life Sciences, Inc.	Vacirca Jeff L Director	$501K	+167%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	+55.2%	0.44	0.66	—
53	2026-06-12	XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.	MCKEON BRIAN P Director	$101K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+12.5%	2.26	1.65	—
60	2026-05-13	FCN FTI CONSULTING, INC	Linton Paul Alderman Chief Strategy/Transf. Officer	$346K	+2.7%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+5.3%	0.90	0.76	18.4
52	2026-06-29	RH RH	ALBERINI CARLOS Director	$901K	+55%	RARE BUYER $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-8.3%	1.32	0.04	23.5
52	2026-05-26	CAVA CAVA GROUP, INC.	Thompson Douglas W. Chief Operations Officer	$318K	+63%	DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-23.5%	0.00	0.00	112.5
52	2026-05-13	POOL POOL CORP	PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J Director	$1.8M	+33%	CLUSTER ×4 DEFENSIVE $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+5.3%	1.34	1.10	17.1
64	2026-05-11	MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.	Presa Rachel General Counsel and Secretary	$20K	+70%	CLUSTER ×4 DIRECT	+17.8%	0.44	0.00	13.1
51	2026-05-14	CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE	Soultz Bradley Lee Director	$85K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER OFFENSIVE STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-19.8%	3.31	1.76	14.1
63	2026-06-02	AVR Anteris Technologies Global Corp.	Knight Susan Elizabeth Director	$102K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+	-2.7%	0.00	0.00	—
63	2026-06-01	NHC NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP	Piercey Lisa Director	$175K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+	+18.7%	0.66	0.00	28.5
63	2026-05-13	OTF Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.	Weiler Melissa Director	$109K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+	+3.7%	0.00	0.95	7.4
50	2026-06-26	NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC.	SOOK PERRY A Chief Executive Officer	$2.0M	+1.4%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+9.0%	0.49	5.73	58.9
61	2026-05-22	AFB ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN NATIONAL MUNICIPAL INCOME FUND	GERKEN R JAY Director	$27K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE	-3.1%	0.00	—	—
61	2026-05-11	POR PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/	HOGLUND ROBERT N Director	$98K	+385%	RARE BUYER DIRECT	-0.1%	0.71	1.20	17.6
58	2026-05-22	CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc.	Fieldly John Chief Executive Officer	$249K	+0.9%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	+4.4%	0.88	0.57	122.6
46	2026-06-05	GMEX GMEX Robotics Corp	HRT FINANCIAL LP 10% owner	$60K	+158%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-19.3%	0.00	0.00	—
41	2026-05-27	DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc	Marquez Octavio President and CEO	$49K	+0.6%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-13.7%	0.00	0.97	27.0
41	2026-05-26	DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc	Marquez Octavio President and CEO	$50K	+0.6%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-13.5%	0.00	0.97	27.0
57	2026-06-11	HLNE Hamilton Lane INC	Rogers Hartley R. Executive Co-Chairman	$2.2M	+69%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	+30.9%	0.00	0.29	25.9
57	2026-05-13	PSN PARSONS CORP	Ball George L. Director	$500K	+7.1%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	-4.8%	0.65	0.57	21.6
56	2026-05-21	CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc.	Hanson Eric President & COO	$218K	+11%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	+5.6%	0.88	0.57	122.6
39	2026-05-13	JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.	Markscheid Stephen Director	$50K	+11%	RARE BUYER DIRECT SECTOR UNDER PRESSURE	-52.1%	0.00	4.77	—
54	2026-06-11	MSA MSA Safety Inc	BECK JULIE A Chief Financial Officer	$71K	+13%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT	+18.3%	1.07	0.43	26.5
54	2026-06-09	HTFC Horizon Technology Finance Corp	ALLISON THOMAS J. Director	$26K	+12%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE	—	0.73	0.96	—
49	2026-05-15	AAT American Assets Trust, Inc.	RADY ERNEST S Executive Chairman	$610K	+4,313%	OFFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+7.7%	0.93	1.50	24.3
48	2026-05-29	DLO dLocal Ltd	Pruett William Rodney Director	$237K	+23%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+31.0%	0.00	—	—
52	2026-05-18	NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence plc	Peck James M See Remarks	$1.0M	+39%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	+117.7%	0.57	3.91	—
41	2026-06-25	KMX CARMAX INC	Chawla Sona Director	$107K	+10%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+18.5%	1.97	2.96	37.7
51	2026-05-20	OXSQH Oxford Square Capital Corp.	ROSENTHAL SAUL B President and COO	$167K	+7.0%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+	—	0.00	0.95	83.5
51	2026-05-20	OXSQG Oxford Square Capital Corp.	ROSENTHAL SAUL B President and COO	$167K	+7.0%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+	—	0.00	0.95	80.8
40	2026-06-09	VFC V F CORP	Carucci Richard Director	$515K	+9.8%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-21.7%	1.70	1.90	21.0
40	2026-05-29	CAVA CAVA GROUP, INC.	Thompson Douglas W. Chief Operations Officer	$195K	+24%	DIRECT $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-22.0%	0.00	0.00	112.5
45	2026-05-13	FCN FTI CONSULTING, INC	Gunby Steven Henry CEO, Chairman and President	$484K	+3.2%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+4.8%	0.90	0.76	18.4
45	2026-05-12	XRN Chiron Real Estate Inc.	Marston Ronald Director	$10K	+96%	RARE BUYER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+8.3%	0.00	0.00	—
49	2026-06-10	MZTI MARZETTI CO	Pigott, Thomas K. VP, CFO and Asst. Secretary	$98K	+5.3%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE	-3.3%	0.47	0.00	17.4
49	2026-05-26	HLNE Hamilton Lane INC	Rogers Hartley R. Executive Co-Chairman	$721K	NEW	INITIAL BUY $100K+	+14.0%	0.00	0.29	25.9
39	2026-06-15	XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.	HOSEIN CLYDE Director	$65K	+10%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE STRONGEST EVIDENCE	+14.0%	2.26	1.65	—
38	2026-05-29	CAVA CAVA GROUP, INC.	KADOW JOSEPH JOHN CLO & Secretary	$79K	+20%	DIRECT STRONGEST EVIDENCE	-23.1%	0.00	0.00	112.5
43	2026-06-05	NHI NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS INC	Mendelsohn D. Eric CEO and President	$103K	+1.1%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+3.0%	1.38	0.72	23.5
43	2026-06-04	ABR ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC	Tsunis George Director	$149K	+89%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	-5.9%	0.23	4.00	9.4
43	2026-06-04	ABR-PD	Tsunis George Director	$149K	+89%	DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	—	—	4.00	—
43	2026-06-04	ABR-PE	Tsunis George Director	$149K	+89%	DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	—	—	4.00	—
43	2026-06-04	ABR-PF	Tsunis George Director	$149K	+89%	DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	—	—	4.00	—
43	2026-05-18	AAT American Assets Trust, Inc.	RADY ERNEST S Executive Chairman	$50K	+4,313%	OFFENSIVE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+6.7%	0.93	1.50	24.3
78	2026-05-14	GPGI GPGI, Inc.	Mikkilineni Krishna Director	$100K	+301%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	+10.5%	0.00	0.00	—
46	2026-05-22	OTF Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.	Temple Chris Director	$75K	+140%	DIRECT	+5.5%	0.00	0.95	7.4
45	2026-06-11	HLNE Hamilton Lane INC	BERKMAN DAVID J Director	$1.1M	+150%	DEFENSIVE $100K+	+35.1%	0.00	0.29	25.9
45	2026-05-15	CSPI CSP INC /MA/	FOLGER ANTHONY Director	$23K	+25%	RARE BUYER DIRECT	-13.7%	1.08	0.07	—
45	2026-05-11	PSN PARSONS CORP	McMahon Harry T. Director	$491K	+19%	CLUSTER ×4 DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+	-3.2%	0.65	0.57	21.6
45	2026-05-11	OTF Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.	Kaye Eric A. Director	$11K	+100%	DIRECT	+5.2%	0.00	0.95	7.4
40	2026-06-09	CTEV Claritev Corp	Carol Nutter SVP, Chief People Officer	$25K	+1.9%	RARE BUYER DIRECT FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+35.3%	0.60	—	—
40	2026-06-08	VNO VORNADO REALTY TRUST	WIGHT RUSSELL B JR Director	$15K	+33%	RARE BUYER OFFENSIVE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+143.9%	4.96	0.45	8.7
40	2026-05-12	FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc.	Isaacman Jared 10% owner	$7.8M	+28%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+13.0%	0.00	2.79	—
40	2026-05-11	FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc.	Isaacman Jared 10% owner	$8.1M	+28%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS	+11.0%	0.00	2.79	—
43	2026-05-27	HLNE Hamilton Lane INC	Rogers Hartley R. Executive Co-Chairman	$43K	NEW	INITIAL BUY	+11.2%	0.00	0.29	25.9
43	2026-05-20	OXSQH Oxford Square Capital Corp.	COHEN JONATHAN H Chief Executive Officer	$167K	+6.4%	RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+	—	0.00	0.95	83.5
43	2026-05-20	OXSQG Oxford Square Capital Corp.	COHEN JONATHAN H Chief Executive Officer	$167K	+6.4%	RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+	—	0.00	0.95	80.8
43	2026-05-18	MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.	Gorson Matthew B. Director	$121K	+14%	CLUSTER ×4 DIRECT $100K+	+18.7%	0.44	0.00	13.1
82	2026-05-13	KBR KBR, INC.	Evans Shad E. EVP & Chief Financial Officer	$256K	+24%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+20.3%	0.47	1.59	11.5
41	2026-05-11	LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.	Gray James D Chief Financial Officer	$205K	+17%	CFO / COO DIRECT $100K+	+21.9%	0.86	2.15	24.0
65	2026-06-01	AGBK AGI Inc	Correa Glauber Marques Director and COO	$15K	NEW	INITIAL BUY CFO / COO RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	-7.9%	0.00	—	—
78	2026-05-28	GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc.	Martin John Arthur Chief Financial Officer	$174K	NEW	INITIAL BUY CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+87.8%	0.30	—	62.7
77	2026-05-19	KBR KBR, INC.	Sabater Carlos A. Director	$471K	+68%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+13.4%	0.47	1.59	11.5
59	2026-06-11	GPGI GPGI, Inc.	Knott Thomas R. See remarks	$995K	+194%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	+16.8%	0.00	0.00	—
70	2026-06-02	ALHC Alignment Healthcare, Inc.	Kent Mark D. President - MSO	$198K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+1.7%	0.00	1.22	—
70	2026-05-18	GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc.	Thornthwaite Martin Ellis General Counsel	$208K	NEW	INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+57.1%	0.30	—	62.7
68	2026-06-08	KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.	Tangard Christopher R. SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	$100K	+660%	CFO / COO RARE BUYER $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+22.8%	1.50	0.11	17.2
68	2026-05-14	KBR KBR, INC.	Von Thaer Lewis Director	$92K	+41%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+19.7%	0.47	1.59	11.5
68	2026-05-11	IBP Installed Building Products, Inc.	Wheeler Brad A Chief Operating Officer	$150K	+5.0%	CFO / COO CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+14.1%	1.07	1.72	24.6
63	2026-06-01	RLI RLI CORP	KELLOGG CLARK C Director	$153K	+200%	RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+22.6%	1.08	0.20	14.3
52	2026-05-13	UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc.	Gu Paul Chief Executive Officer	$1.4M	+250%	DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	+2.0%	0.00	0.00	62.3
62	2026-06-02	RDN RADIAN GROUP INC	Weinbach Michael S Chief Executive Officer- Elect	$1.7M	NEW	INITIAL BUY DIRECT $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+7.7%	0.62	0.26	8.9
62	2026-06-01	RDN RADIAN GROUP INC	Weinbach Michael S Chief Executive Officer- Elect	$4.1M	NEW	INITIAL BUY DIRECT $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+8.2%	0.62	0.26	8.9
60	2026-05-12	NWN Northwest Natural Holding Co	Bragdon Peter J Director	$20K	+100%	RARE BUYER DIRECT WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	-2.2%	2.50	1.69	17.8
58	2026-05-11	IBP Installed Building Products, Inc.	Niswonger Jason R Chief Admin. & Sustainability	$98K	+2.7%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+11.1%	1.07	1.72	24.6
56	2026-05-29	GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc.	Langston Patrick Ryan 10% owner	$100K	+56%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+83.4%	0.30	—	62.7
56	2026-05-15	GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc.	Jones Mark E. Jr. President & COO	$99K	+61%	CFO / COO DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+73.9%	0.30	—	62.7
46	2026-06-09	QFIN Qfin Holdings, Inc.	Chen Xiaohuan Director	$58K	+27%	RARE BUYER DIRECT NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	-37.1%	0.17	0.07	2.9
53	2026-05-20	KBR KBR, INC.	MOORE JACK B Director	$126K	+7.9%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+17.1%	0.47	1.59	11.5
53	2026-05-12	AGIG ABUNDIA GLOBAL IMPACT GROUP, INC.	Bailey Robert J. Director	$11K	+10%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	-3.3%	0.00	0.79	—
53	2026-05-12	AGIG ABUNDIA GLOBAL IMPACT GROUP, INC.	LONGO PETER F. Director	$12K	+10%	CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	-3.3%	0.00	0.79	—
52	2026-05-14	AGIG ABUNDIA GLOBAL IMPACT GROUP, INC.	Gillespie Edward Oliver Chief Executive Officer	$15K	+22%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+0.3%	0.00	0.79	—
52	2026-05-13	AGIG ABUNDIA GLOBAL IMPACT GROUP, INC.	Gillespie Edward Oliver Chief Executive Officer	$12K	+22%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	-4.9%	0.00	0.79	—
51	2026-05-11	IBP Installed Building Products, Inc.	Hilsheimer Lawrence A. Director	$98K	+1.7%	CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE NO HISTORICAL EDGE	+15.7%	1.07	1.72	24.6
41	2026-05-13	GPGI GPGI, Inc.	Schoen Kurt See remarks	$50K	+0.7%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	+8.3%	0.00	0.00	—
41	2026-05-12	CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc.	Sidhu Samvir S. CEO	$73K	+0.2%	RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	+9.7%	0.80	0.03	12.7
40	2026-06-15	ABTC American Bitcoin Corp.	Busch Richard Director	$392K	+32%	DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	—	3.59	0.04	—
40	2026-05-29	NTB Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Ltd	Lynch Mark T Director	$565K	+4.4%	RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG	+8.9%	0.82	0.00	11.2
43	2026-06-23	OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/	Jackson Richard A. President and CEO	$250K	+1.1%	RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+14.6%	0.76	0.33	37.3
40	2026-05-18	AGIG ABUNDIA GLOBAL IMPACT GROUP, INC.	Gillespie Edward Oliver Chief Executive Officer	$17K	+8.5%	CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE	+0.9%	0.00	0.79	—
OVR	2026-08-04	AGIO AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.	Automated sellers only 10b5-1 / routine plans — no discretionary sells	$914K	-24.8%	OVERREACTION?	—	0.00	—	—

1. The two "beat" columns are the test, not the raw return. Raw return is mostly the market rising. vs S&P and vs small-caps strip that out. When a signal beats the S&P but not small-caps, the "edge" was just owning small, cheap stocks — you could get it from an index fund.
2. Ignore tiny samples. Rows under 25 company-events are greyed and marked ⚠ — one stock swings them.
3. Hit rate matters as much as the average. A high average with a low hit rate means a couple of lottery winners carried it — not a repeatable edge.

Signal	Company-events	Raw +63d	★ vs S&P	vs small-caps	Beat S&P
The baseline & our own score
All opportunistic buys Every CMP-filtered buy. The honest baseline. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	983	+8.2%	+3.1%	-2.2%	42%
High conviction (70+) Our composite score's top bucket — currently NOT beating its control. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	65	+9.2%	+3.7%	-2.2%	38%
Low conviction (<45) Internal control — should do worse (right now it doesn't). 🔎 show these in the live feed →	333	+7.3%	+2.4%	-1.6%	44%
How much of their own exposure did they change?
Brand-new position Opened a position they didn't hold before. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	104	+10.1%	+5.0%	+0.4%	36%
Doubled+ existing (≥100%) Grew an existing stake by 100%+. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	68	+6.3%	+0.6%	-2.8%	37%
Grew 30–99% A meaningful add to an existing stake. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	96	+18.1%	+12.5%	+9.9%	44%
Grew 10–29% A moderate add. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	113	+9.2%	+3.6%	-1.4%	50%
Grew <10% A token top-up. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	239	+5.1%	+0.3%	-4.9%	42%
Priced vs what the insider themselves paid
15%+ below insider cost You'd pay well under what they did. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	35	-2.1%	-8.0%	-8.4%	9%
0–15% below insider cost Slightly cheaper than the insider. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	202	+12.3%	+7.2%	+1.1%	47%
0–10% above A bit more than the insider paid. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	293	+7.8%	+2.8%	-1.7%	45%
10–30% above Meaningfully above insider cost. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	31	+12.3%	+6.2%	+2.6%	45%
30%+ above Well above what the insider paid. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	28	+5.6%	+0.1%	-2.3%	21%
Who bought
Officers (CEO/CFO/COO/etc.) Named executives. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	326	+6.1%	+0.9%	-3.4%	39%
Directors Board members. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	536	+11.1%	+5.9%	-0.3%	46%
10% owners Large institutional holders. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	68	-0.2%	-4.7%	-6.4%	34%
The folklore — does it survive de-duplication?
Cluster buys (≥3 insiders) The "many insiders agree" belief. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	111	+7.8%	+2.6%	-0.6%	41%
Rare buyers Insiders who almost never trade. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	459	+10.8%	+5.4%	-2.3%	44%
$100K+ buys Big dollar amounts. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	736	+9.1%	+3.9%	-1.6%	43%
Defensive (bought a dip) Bought into a ≥20% drawdown. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	202	+13.0%	+7.2%	+3.2%	46%
Offensive (quiet accumulation) Bought while calm. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	169	+1.3%	-3.7%	-6.9%	30%
Combinations we're testing (hypotheses — check the Beat-S&P column)
Big stake increase + below insider cost A meaningful add, still cheaper than they paid. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	109	+14.4%	+9.0%	+7.0%	39%
New position + below insider cost Fresh conviction at a discount to their price. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	47	+16.4%	+10.9%	+9.1%	36%
Big stake increase + CFO/COO Meaningful add by a top officer. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	53	+14.0%	+9.5%	+2.9%	49%
Big stake increase + bought a dip Added meaningfully into weakness. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	105	+14.3%	+8.4%	+3.3%	40%
Big stake increase + rare buyer Meaningful add by someone who never buys. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	166	+9.9%	+4.2%	-0.8%	39%
New position + CFO/COO A top officer opens a fresh position. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	24 ⚠ too few	+16.9%	+11.7%	+2.8%	42%
Contrarian — a different event type, same grading
★ Overreaction setup (drop on automated selling) Buy a ≥12% drop when insiders sold ONLY via scheduled plans — the possible false alarm. 🔎 show these in the live feed →	125	+18.0%	+9.9%	+5.5%	58%

Why we don't crown a winner: we test ~two dozen buckets and combinations. When you test that many, the best-looking one is often just luck (multiple comparisons) — especially when its average is high but its beat-rate is low, meaning a couple of outliers carried it. So nothing here is presented as proven. The pockets that lean positive on both benchmarks are hypotheses, now tracked forward out-of-sample in the public signal ledger. Forward, real-time results are the only test that counts. Extra caveat on the ★ overreaction row (currently our strongest result, and the only one with |t|≥2): it carries a survivorship bias — a stock that dropped and then delisted (or fell out of our price coverage) can't complete its 63-day window and is excluded, which flatters the number. And it's the price + automated-selling version only; the live filter adds a DCF check this history can't reconstruct.

Pick any signal flags. We'll grade the combination across every matured company-event in our data — same de-duplicated unit, same 2-day entry lag, same dual benchmark as our own scorecard. Then pull up the stocks currently matching it.

Buy month	Signals	Avg 63-day return
2025-05	17	+84.3%
2025-06	32	+10.4%
2025-07	21	+16.6%
2025-08	78	-1.4%
2025-09	45	+2.1%
2025-10	32	+7.5%
2025-11	131	+10.0%
2025-12	89	+0.2%
2026-01	35	+0.5%
2026-02	127	+1.9%
2026-03	146	+14.3%
2026-04	36	+0.7%
2026-05	165	+11.1%
2026-06	29	+8.4%

Why these filters. Insiders sell for dozens of non-informational reasons — taxes, tuition, diversification, scheduled compensation plans. Buying is different: an executive spending six figures of personal cash, at an irregular time, on the open market, is expressing a view. The Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski framework (Journal of Finance, 2012) formalized this: routine trades (same calendar month, 3+ consecutive years) predicted nothing, while opportunistic trades earned ~82 bps/month of abnormal return. We implement that cascade directly on raw SEC Form 4 filings, including the post-2023 mandatory 10b5-1 checkbox and footnote parsing for older filings.

Why the DCF layer. Research in the Journal of Financial Economics shows insider-buying alpha concentrates in value stocks — buying in expensive momentum names is often "corporate theater." Our edge is that every stock here already has a five-model DCF intrinsic value, so the value filter isn't a crude P/B screen: it's a margin-of-safety measure. The "≥15% DCF discount" tab implements exactly the setup the literature supports.

Why cluster & low-density flags. Three or more insiders buying within days of each other is a unified signal (the OpenInsider convention). And recent work shows low-density insiders — executives who almost never trade — precede outsized price moves when they finally act. Both flags are computed per stock, per filing.

Our trading philosophy (and the caveat). A signal is not a plan. Every position needs a thought-through entry and exit — even "buy and hold" is a plan only if you can ride out drawdowns without capitulating. If you can't articulate what would make you exit, the trade is a gamble. Nothing on this page is investment advice; it is an educational research feed built from public SEC data and our own models, both of which can be wrong. Verify filings yourself and consult a licensed advisor before risking capital.