When and where insider buying has worked
Pick an industry, the kind of market, and a period. Green: insider buys, each held 3 months. Grey: the small-company index over the same dates. Where green pulls away, the buys beat the index. The boxes underneath are the evidence for exactly what you picked.
Insider buys, screened — what is in, what is out, and what it has returned
| The screen | |
|---|---|
| Universe | Every SEC Form 4 open-market purchase by an officer, director or 10% holder, all US listings |
| Kept | Opportunistic buys: discretionary, ≥ $10k, on a stock we have a page for |
| Removed | 10b5-1 plan trades, dividend reinvestment, option exercises, grants, routine periodic buyers, implausible values (parse errors) |
| Flags | Cluster (3+ insiders in 10 days) · stake increase (% of prior holding) · first-ever buy · officer vs director · size · price vs our model value |
| Window shown | Last 120 days, newest first; each company counted once |
| How it is graded | |
|---|---|
| Entry | First session after the filing became public (not the trade date) |
| Hold | 21 and 63 trading days |
| Versus | S&P 500 and small caps (IWM) — insider-buy names skew small, so beating the S&P alone can be the size tilt |
| Statistics | One vote per company (clustered t-stat); cells under 40 trades greyed |
| Market state | Sell-off = S&P ≥ 10% below its 1-yr high on the entry day |
| Sector (SEC group) | Sell-offs | Calm | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medical devices | +23.0 pts n 340 | +3.6 pts | Sell-offs only |
| Transport & logistics | +16.4 pts n 172 | +4.1 pts | No reliable edge |
| Other | +10.8 pts n 928 | +1.9 pts | Sell-offs only |
| Construction | +10.2 pts n 113 | −6.0 pts | Sell-offs only; loses in calm |
| Tech hardware & semis | +9.0 pts n 474 | −2.6 pts | Sell-offs only; loses in calm |
| Retail & consumer | +7.6 pts n 694 | +1.7 pts | Sell-offs only |
| Energy | +7.4 pts n 644 | −1.5 pts | Sell-offs only; loses in calm |
| Biotech & pharma | +6.5 pts n 575 | +4.9 pts | No reliable edge |
Entered the session after each filing became public, held three months, graded against small caps, each company counted once. Full sector tables, the strategy variants and today's matching buys are in the research pieces. The live scorecard below is the same test run on this feed since launch.
The people who know the business best bought it with their own money.
It didn't make the news.
It was public the whole time — filed with the SEC, free to read, buried in thousands of routine filings nobody has time to sort. Over half of all insider trades carry zero predictive power (Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski, Journal of Finance). We apply their filter to every Form 4 we scan — discarding routine trades and automated 10b5-1 plan sales, isolating irregularly-timed, open-market buys made with the insider's own cash — then rank them against our DCF value, because the research says insider buying pays off mainly in undervalued companies, not expensive ones.
Below is the filter, the signals it surfaces, and an honest scorecard of whether it has actually worked. None of it tells you what to do. It tells you what happened, early enough to matter. You make the call.
├── [FILTER OUT] Routine trades — same calendar month, 3+ consecutive years
├── [FILTER OUT] Automated selling — Rule 10b5-1 scheduled plans
├── [FILTER OUT] Option exercises & grants — not open-market cash
└── [ISOLATE] Opportunistic buys — irregular timing, open market, own cash → then scored on skin in the game, and ranked against our DCF value
A board member worth $400M buying $100K of stock is couch-cushion money — closer to PR than conviction. A VP earning $250K putting in $50K and doubling their entire stake is a real bet. Absolute dollars can't tell those apart. Relative size can. So our conviction score (0–100) weighs, in order:
- How much they grew their own stake (or opened a brand-new position) — the heaviest weight.
- Who they are — CFOs and COOs live in the cash flow and the order book; independent directors often buy for optics.
- Cluster (several insiders acting independently) and rarity (someone who almost never buys).
- Personal capital held directly, not moved around inside a trust or LLC.
- Absolute dollars — last, and worth the least.
Conviction measures the insider, not the stock — valuation (P/IV, debt) is kept as a separate column on purpose. And we don't score the offensive/defensive tag or an insider's past hit-rate: both are plausible but unproven on our data.
Full honesty: the scorecard below shows this score, as currently weighted, is not yet beating its own low-conviction control on our de-biased data — and directors have actually outperformed officers, the opposite of the usual assumption. We're publishing that rather than hiding it, and treating it as a mandate to re-weight the score toward what the data supports (relative stake size; price vs the insider's own cost) once the forward ledger backs it up. We won't quietly retrofit the score to fit past data.
Insider buying paid in the 2008 crash and its recovery — and has been close to zero most other times.
We tested 36,631 insider buys from 2006 to today, including stocks that later delisted. The bars show how much better each period's buys did than a small-company index fund over the next 3 months:
| Global financial crisis | +2.6% | |
| Post-crisis recovery | +1.2% | |
| Mid-cycle bull | -0.1% | |
| AI-led recovery (now) | +0.4% |
Live insider buys — last 120 days, filterable
Ordering note: this feed is ranked by conviction adjusted for what the 20-year study found about each sector. Banks are down-weighted — they supply about 30% of all insider buys but average under 1%, so they used to crowd the top on volume alone. Energy and tech-hardware buys are promoted only while their sector is actually being sold off, which is the only condition in which they have paid. Nothing is hidden: every adjusted row carries a badge explaining why it moved. See the evidence →
Every filter below matches a bucket in the scorecard — so when a bucket leans positive there, click the same filter here to see the stocks currently in it. (Each scorecard row also has a "🔎 show these in the live feed" link.)
| Conviction | Date | Stock | Insider | Buy value | Stake ↑ | Signal flags | vs their price | P / IV (our DCF) | D / E | P / E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 2026-06-09 | HTFC | Seitz Paul G Chief Investment Officer |
$50K | +1,500% | CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE | — | 0.73 | 0.96 | — |
| 78 | 2026-05-28 | GSHD | Martin John Arthur Chief Financial Officer |
$174K | NEW | INITIAL BUY CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ | +64.6% | 0.30 | — | 55.0 |
| 70 | 2026-06-03 | XMTR | Biewald Lukas Alexander Director |
$4.0M | +583% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ | +1.3% | 1.94 | 0.03 | — |
| 70 | 2026-06-02 | ALHC | Kent Mark D. President - MSO |
$198K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ | -5.3% | 0.00 | 1.22 | — |
| 63 | 2026-06-01 | NHC | Piercey Lisa Director |
$175K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS | +18.7% | 0.66 | 0.00 | 28.5 |
| 68 | 2026-06-08 | KNSL | Tangard Christopher R. SVP, Chief Accounting Officer |
$100K | +660% | CFO / COO RARE BUYER $100K+ | +21.4% | 1.50 | 0.11 | 17.1 |
| 67 | 2026-06-09 | HTFC | Balkin Michael Chief Executive Officer |
$434K | +81% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ | — | 0.73 | 0.96 | — |
| 53 | 2026-05-20 | KBR | MOORE JACK B Director |
$126K | +7.9% | CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ STRONGEST EVIDENCE | +16.4% | 0.47 | 1.59 | 11.4 |
| 63 | 2026-06-30 | ABSI | Szela Mary T Director |
$149K | +154% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ | -28.9% | 0.00 | 0.02 | — |
| 63 | 2026-06-02 | AVR | Knight Susan Elizabeth Director |
$102K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ | -10.2% | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 63 | 2026-06-01 | RLI | KELLOGG CLARK C Director |
$153K | +200% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ | +18.8% | 1.08 | 0.20 | 13.8 |
| 62 | 2026-06-02 | RDN | Weinbach Michael S Chief Executive Officer- Elect |
$1.7M | NEW | INITIAL BUY DIRECT $100K+ | +3.9% | 0.62 | 0.26 | 8.5 |
| 62 | 2026-06-01 | RDN | Weinbach Michael S Chief Executive Officer- Elect |
$4.1M | NEW | INITIAL BUY DIRECT $100K+ | +4.4% | 0.62 | 0.26 | 8.5 |
| 61 | 2026-05-22 | AFB | GERKEN R JAY Director |
$27K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE | -6.5% | 0.00 | — | — |
| 99 | 2026-06-04 | AADX | McRae Jeffrey L. Chief Financial Officer |
$500K | NEW | INITIAL BUY CFO / COO CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | — | — | 0.48 | — |
| 57 | 2026-06-11 | HLNE | Rogers Hartley R. Executive Co-Chairman |
$2.2M | +69% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ | +21.9% | 0.00 | 0.29 | 24.1 |
| 56 | 2026-05-29 | GSHD | Langston Patrick Ryan 10% owner |
$100K | +56% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE | +60.8% | 0.30 | — | 55.0 |
| 56 | 2026-05-22 | DBD | Myers Jonathan EVP, Chief Revenue Officer |
$100K | +3.1% | CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT | -10.6% | 0.00 | 0.97 | 25.8 |
| 54 | 2026-06-11 | MSA | BECK JULIE A Chief Financial Officer |
$71K | +13% | CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT | +12.7% | 1.07 | 0.43 | 25.2 |
| 54 | 2026-06-09 | HTFC | ALLISON THOMAS J. Director |
$26K | +12% | CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE | — | 0.73 | 0.96 | — |
| 52 | 2026-06-29 | RH | ALBERINI CARLOS Director |
$901K | +55% | RARE BUYER $100K+ | -16.8% | 1.32 | 0.02 | 21.3 |
| 52 | 2026-05-26 | CAVA | Thompson Douglas W. Chief Operations Officer |
$318K | +63% | DIRECT $100K+ | -37.1% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.6 |
| 51 | 2026-06-12 | ENPH | Trivedi Shanker Director |
$54K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE | -34.0% | 0.00 | 0.52 | 27.6 |
| 51 | 2026-05-20 | OXSQH | ROSENTHAL SAUL B President and COO |
$167K | +7.0% | CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ | — | 0.00 | 0.95 | 83.7 |
| 51 | 2026-05-20 | OXSQG | ROSENTHAL SAUL B President and COO |
$167K | +7.0% | CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ | — | 0.00 | 0.95 | 80.5 |
| 84 | 2026-06-04 | AADX | Katzman James C Director |
$500K | +588% | CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | — | — | 0.48 | — |
| 49 | 2026-05-26 | HLNE | Rogers Hartley R. Executive Co-Chairman |
$721K | NEW | INITIAL BUY $100K+ | +6.1% | 0.00 | 0.29 | 24.1 |
| 49 | 2026-05-22 | DBD | Timko Thomas S EVP, CFO |
$50K | +0.9% | CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT | -11.8% | 0.00 | 0.97 | 25.8 |
| 80 | 2026-06-04 | AADX | Lynch Susan D Director |
$160K | NEW | INITIAL BUY CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | — | — | 0.48 | — |
| 48 | 2026-05-29 | DLO | Pruett William Rodney Director |
$237K | +23% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ | +25.4% | 0.00 | — | — |
| 93 | 2026-06-05 | NVRI | Minan Peter Francis Executive Vice President & CFO |
$160K | +103% | CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +15.9% | 0.78 | 0.61 | — |
| 46 | 2026-05-22 | OTF | Temple Chris Director |
$75K | +140% | DIRECT | -0.7% | 0.00 | 0.95 | 7.0 |
| 36 | 2026-06-12 | GVA | Romer John Timothy Director |
$53K | +37% | DIRECT OFFENSIVE STRONGEST EVIDENCE | -19.3% | 1.50 | 2.58 | 29.6 |
| 45 | 2026-06-11 | HLNE | BERKMAN DAVID J Director |
$1.1M | +150% | DEFENSIVE $100K+ | +25.8% | 0.00 | 0.29 | 24.1 |
| 35 | 2026-06-15 | GVA | Romer John Timothy Director |
$15K | +37% | DIRECT OFFENSIVE STRONGEST EVIDENCE | -20.7% | 1.50 | 2.58 | 29.6 |
| 87 | 2026-06-03 | NVRI | Hochman Russell C. President and CEO |
$1.0M | +55% | CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +14.8% | 0.78 | 0.61 | — |
| 72 | 2026-06-12 | CXT | Saak Aaron W CEO |
$1.0M | +59% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +23.4% | 0.88 | 1.15 | 20.8 |
| 43 | 2026-05-27 | HLNE | Rogers Hartley R. Executive Co-Chairman |
$43K | NEW | INITIAL BUY | +3.5% | 0.00 | 0.29 | 24.1 |
| 43 | 2026-05-20 | OXSQH | COHEN JONATHAN H Chief Executive Officer |
$167K | +6.4% | RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ | — | 0.00 | 0.95 | 83.7 |
| 43 | 2026-05-20 | OXSQG | COHEN JONATHAN H Chief Executive Officer |
$167K | +6.4% | RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ | — | 0.00 | 0.95 | 80.5 |
| 34 | 2026-06-11 | IBP | Miller Michael Thomas Executive VP & CFO |
$32K | +3.0% | CFO / COO DIRECT DEFENSIVE STRONGEST EVIDENCE | -1.2% | 1.07 | 1.72 | 21.0 |
| 41 | 2026-06-25 | KMX | Chawla Sona Director |
$107K | +10% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ | +10.1% | 1.97 | 2.96 | 35.0 |
| 41 | 2026-05-27 | DBD | Marquez Octavio President and CEO |
$49K | +0.6% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT | -17.5% | 0.00 | 0.97 | 25.8 |
| 41 | 2026-05-26 | DBD | Marquez Octavio President and CEO |
$50K | +0.6% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT | -17.3% | 0.00 | 0.97 | 25.8 |
| 68 | 2026-06-12 | CXT | Cristiano Christina SVP, Chief Financial Officer |
$149K | +32% | CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +23.9% | 0.88 | 1.15 | 20.8 |
| 40 | 2026-06-09 | CTEV | Carol Nutter SVP, Chief People Officer |
$25K | +1.9% | RARE BUYER DIRECT | +26.7% | 0.60 | — | — |
| 40 | 2026-05-29 | CAVA | Thompson Douglas W. Chief Operations Officer |
$195K | +24% | DIRECT $100K+ | -35.8% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.6 |
| 65 | 2026-06-01 | AGBK | Correa Glauber Marques Director and COO |
$15K | NEW | INITIAL BUY CFO / COO RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | -9.2% | 0.00 | — | — |
| 38 | 2026-05-29 | CAVA | KADOW JOSEPH JOHN CLO & Secretary |
$79K | +20% | DIRECT | -36.7% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.6 |
| 38 | 2026-05-28 | RLI | Duclos David B. Director |
$130K | +34% | DIRECT $100K+ | +16.3% | 1.08 | 0.20 | 13.8 |
| 36 | 2026-08-24 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$102K | +0.9% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT $100K+ | +2.6% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 36 | 2026-08-14 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$140K | +0.7% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT $100K+ | +14.4% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 36 | 2026-05-27 | RLI | Klobnak Jennifer L CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
$105K | +2.0% | CFO / COO DIRECT $100K+ | +14.7% | 1.08 | 0.20 | 13.8 |
| 59 | 2026-06-11 | GPGI | Knott Thomas R. See remarks |
$995K | +194% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +11.2% | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 70 | 2026-06-11 | OUT | Norton James Michael EVP, CRO, Enterprise |
$127K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -7.1% | 1.46 | 3.65 | 34.9 |
| 35 | 2026-06-05 | IMNM | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES Director |
$19K | +32% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE | +28.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 70 | 2026-06-03 | NVRI | Purvis Edgar M Jr Director |
$253K | +41% | CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +23.3% | 0.78 | 0.61 | — |
| 34 | 2026-08-21 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$82K | +0.4% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT | +6.7% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 34 | 2026-08-20 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$66K | +0.3% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT | +6.4% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 34 | 2026-08-19 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$45K | +0.2% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT | +0.6% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 34 | 2026-06-25 | KMX | Shinder Marcella Director |
$30K | +2.4% | RARE BUYER DIRECT | +13.1% | 1.97 | 2.96 | 35.0 |
| 34 | 2026-06-11 | HLNE | Kramer Andrea Anigati Chief Operating Officer |
$99K | +1.5% | CFO / COO DIRECT DEFENSIVE | +23.9% | 0.00 | 0.29 | 24.1 |
| 55 | 2026-06-04 | AADX | Goldstein Scott (NMN) Director |
$10K | +12% | CLUSTER ×4 RARE BUYER DIRECT NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | — | — | 0.48 | — |
| 64 | 2026-07-07 | UUUU | Bhappu Ross R. President and CEO |
$968K | +41% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -1.0% | 0.00 | 0.86 | — |
| 53 | 2026-06-12 | XRAY | MCKEON BRIAN P Director |
$101K | NEW | INITIAL BUY RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +3.4% | 2.26 | 1.65 | — |
| 31 | 2026-06-09 | NUVB | Mashal Robert Director |
$118K | +13% | RARE BUYER $100K+ | +25.6% | 0.00 | 0.98 | — |
| 31 | 2026-06-03 | CAVA | KADOW JOSEPH JOHN CLO & Secretary |
$70K | +17% | DIRECT | -28.6% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92.6 |
| 30 | 2026-05-21 | RLI | Kliethermes Craig W CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
$260K | +3.5% | DIRECT $100K+ | +16.3% | 1.08 | 0.20 | 13.8 |
| 58 | 2026-05-22 | CELH | Fieldly John Chief Executive Officer |
$249K | +0.9% | CLUSTER ×3 RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE | -3.8% | 0.88 | 0.57 | 113.0 |
| 28 | 2026-05-27 | RLI | Kliethermes Craig W CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
$104K | +1.3% | DIRECT $100K+ | +16.3% | 1.08 | 0.20 | 13.8 |
| 56 | 2026-05-21 | CELH | Hanson Eric President & COO |
$218K | +11% | CFO / COO CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE | -2.7% | 0.88 | 0.57 | 113.0 |
| 46 | 2026-06-09 | QFIN | Chen Xiaohuan Director |
$58K | +27% | RARE BUYER DIRECT NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | -41.2% | 0.17 | 0.07 | 2.7 |
| 46 | 2026-06-05 | GMEX | HRT FINANCIAL LP 10% owner |
$60K | +158% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | -47.5% | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 26 | 2026-07-31 | CVNA | MAROONE MICHAEL E Director |
$240K | +17% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ | +10.8% | 1.67 | 1.28 | 8.2 |
| 26 | 2026-05-27 | ACCS | BALBIRNIE BRIAN R Director, CEO |
$65K | +1.6% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE | -23.0% | 1.14 | 0.07 | 4.5 |
| 25 | 2026-08-14 | OPEN | Nejatian Kasra Chief Executive Officer |
$100K | +0.0% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ | -26.8% | 1.02 | 2.34 | — |
| 50 | 2026-06-26 | NXST | SOOK PERRY A Chief Executive Officer |
$2.0M | +1.4% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +0.9% | 0.49 | 5.33 | 54.6 |
| 25 | 2026-06-23 | ACCS | BALBIRNIE BRIAN R Director, CEO |
$12K | +0.3% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE | -25.7% | 1.14 | 0.07 | 4.5 |
| 35 | 2026-07-13 | IPX | Hannigan Todd Executive Chairman |
$1.1M | +2.0% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WEAK IN SELLOFFS | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 49 | 2026-06-10 | MZTI | Pigott, Thomas K. VP, CFO and Asst. Secretary |
$98K | +5.3% | CFO / COO RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE | -4.6% | 0.47 | 0.20 | 14.9 |
| 40 | 2026-06-15 | ABTC | Busch Richard Director |
$392K | +32% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | — | 0.00 | 0.04 | — |
| 40 | 2026-06-09 | VFC | Carucci Richard Director |
$515K | +9.8% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | -23.3% | 1.70 | 1.90 | 20.6 |
| 24 | 2026-06-03 | DYN | Posner Brian S Director |
$44K | +13% | DIRECT | +4.2% | 0.00 | 0.28 | — |
| 40 | 2026-05-29 | NTB | Lynch Mark T Director |
$565K | +4.4% | RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +6.1% | 0.82 | 0.00 | 11.0 |
| 24 | 2026-05-26 | DYN | Posner Brian S Director |
$36K | +11% | DIRECT | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.28 | — |
| 24 | 2026-05-21 | SKWD | Kuczinski Anthony J Director |
$47K | +14% | DIRECT OFFENSIVE | +20.2% | 1.25 | 0.00 | 13.9 |
| 24 | 2026-05-20 | DYN | Posner Brian S Director |
$43K | +16% | DIRECT | +6.4% | 0.00 | 0.28 | — |
| 39 | 2026-06-15 | XRAY | HOSEIN CLYDE Director |
$65K | +10% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +4.8% | 2.26 | 1.65 | — |
| 32 | 2026-07-10 | IPX | Hannigan Todd Executive Chairman |
$805K | +2.0% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WEAK IN SELLOFFS | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 43 | 2026-06-23 | OXY | Jackson Richard A. President and CEO |
$250K | +1.1% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +17.3% | 0.76 | 0.33 | 38.2 |
| 43 | 2026-06-05 | NHI | Mendelsohn D. Eric CEO and President |
$103K | +1.1% | RARE BUYER DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +3.0% | 1.38 | 0.72 | 23.5 |
| 43 | 2026-06-04 | ABR | Tsunis George Director |
$149K | +89% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -19.0% | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.1 |
| 43 | 2026-06-04 | ABR-PD | Tsunis George Director |
$149K | +89% | DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | — | — | 4.00 | — |
| 43 | 2026-06-04 | ABR-PE | Tsunis George Director |
$149K | +89% | DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | — | — | 4.00 | — |
| 43 | 2026-06-04 | ABR-PF | Tsunis George Director |
$149K | +89% | DIRECT $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | — | — | 4.00 | — |
| 21 | 2026-09-10 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$121K | +0.5% | DIRECT $100K+ | +1.2% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 21 | 2026-08-31 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$192K | +1.8% | DIRECT $100K+ | -2.8% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 21 | 2026-08-28 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$232K | +1.8% | DIRECT $100K+ | -0.8% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 21 | 2026-08-25 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$102K | +0.9% | DIRECT $100K+ | +2.9% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 30 | 2026-07-10 | IPX | Arima Anastasios Chief Executive Officer |
$497K | +1.1% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WEAK IN SELLOFFS | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 40 | 2026-06-08 | VNO | WIGHT RUSSELL B JR Director |
$15K | +33% | RARE BUYER OFFENSIVE NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +136.2% | 4.96 | 0.45 | 8.4 |
| 33 | 2026-05-29 | ENS | Funk Andrea J. EVP and CFO |
$25K | +0.2% | CFO / COO DIRECT NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | -24.8% | 1.49 | 0.53 | 22.3 |
| 32 | 2026-07-10 | CMC | MATT PETER R President and CEO |
$504K | +4.7% | DIRECT $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +6.0% | 2.47 | 0.73 | 87.8 |
| 19 | 2026-09-14 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$88K | +0.6% | DIRECT | 0.0% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 19 | 2026-09-11 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$53K | +0.6% | DIRECT | -1.4% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 19 | 2026-09-02 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$55K | +0.2% | DIRECT | -2.5% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 19 | 2026-08-27 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$53K | +0.5% | DIRECT | +1.2% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 19 | 2026-08-26 | AFCG | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M Director |
$66K | +0.5% | DIRECT | +2.6% | 4.06 | 0.00 | — |
| 19 | 2026-06-30 | MOGU | Chen Qi Director |
$25K | +1.7% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE | +12.2% | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 31 | 2026-05-29 | TFSL | Weir Daniel F Director |
$111K | +16% | RARE BUYER OFFENSIVE $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +7.3% | 3.14 | 0.00 | 53.2 |
| 26 | 2026-06-03 | AUGO | Sousa Mauad Bruno Director |
$182K | +0.6% | RARE BUYER DEFENSIVE $100K+ WEAK IN SELLOFFS | +34.1% | 0.00 | — | — |
| 30 | 2026-06-01 | CECO | WALLMAN RICHARD F Director |
$1.5M | +23% | $100K+ NUMEROUS, NOT STRONG | +1.9% | 2.06 | 0.36 | 57.2 |
| 36 | 2026-05-22 | CELH | Kravitz Hal Director |
$250K | +3.8% | CLUSTER ×3 DIRECT DEFENSIVE $100K+ WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE | -5.0% | 0.88 | 0.57 | 113.0 |
| 33 | 2026-07-01 | HTO | ATLAS Infrastructure Partners (UK) Ltd. 10% owner |
$130K | +0.0% | RARE BUYER DIRECT OFFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +3.1% | 1.00 | 1.02 | 21.5 |
| 33 | 2026-05-20 | FRPT | BREWSTER DARYL G Director |
$10K | +0.4% | RARE BUYER DIRECT DEFENSIVE WRONG PART OF THE CYCLE | +34.1% | 0.88 | 0.11 | 24.1 |
| 25 | 2026-06-12 | AGIG | Gillespie Edward Oliver Chief Executive Officer |
$13K | +5.8% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -2.5% | 0.00 | 0.79 | — |
| 25 | 2026-05-27 | AAT | RADY ERNEST S Executive Chairman |
$1.8M | +1.3% | OFFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -4.7% | 0.93 | 1.50 | 23.4 |
| 25 | 2026-05-21 | AAT | RADY ERNEST S Executive Chairman |
$1.2M | +1.0% | OFFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -0.9% | 0.93 | 1.50 | 23.4 |
| 20 | 2026-05-28 | AAT | RADY ERNEST S Executive Chairman |
$375K | +1.3% | OFFENSIVE $100K+ NO HISTORICAL EDGE | -6.4% | 0.93 | 1.50 | 23.4 |
| 19 | 2026-07-08 | UUUU | HANSEN BRUCE D Director |
$51K | +1.3% | DIRECT DEFENSIVE NO HISTORICAL EDGE | +2.0% | 0.00 | 0.86 | — |
| OVR | 2026-08-04 | AGIO | Automated sellers only 10b5-1 / routine plans — no discretionary sells |
$914K | -25.4% | OVERREACTION? | — | 0.00 | — | — |
P/IV = price ÷ our DCF value (green ≤ 0.85). D/E = debt-to-equity (green ≤ 1 = balance-sheet safety); P/E green ≤ 15. The research is specific: insider buying pays off mainly in undervalued, low-debt names — the ★ Cheap + low-debt tab is that exact intersection (a discount to our DCF and D/E ≤ 1). Purple OVR rows are the contrarian overreaction setups (drop + automated-only selling) — a different event type, under the ★ Overreaction setups chip. Feed grows as the scan covers more of the universe.
Does it work? The event study, live — and honest
Every opportunistic buy becomes a data point: over the next 21 and 63 trading days, did the stock beat the market? Two things make this scorecard more honest than most you'll see: (1) the unit is a company-event (one ticker + a 10-day window), so five insiders buying the same stock in the same week count once, not five times — that alone erased most of the apparent edge, because it was cluster double-counting. (2) we grade against both the S&P 500 and small-caps (IWM), because insider-buy candidates skew small and cheap — beating the S&P can just be that tilt, not insider insight. Past performance does not predict future results.
- The two "beat" columns are the test, not the raw return. Raw return is mostly the market rising. vs S&P and vs small-caps strip that out. When a signal beats the S&P but not small-caps, the "edge" was just owning small, cheap stocks — you could get it from an index fund.
- Ignore tiny samples. Rows under 25 company-events are greyed and marked ⚠ — one stock swings them.
- Hit rate matters as much as the average. A high average with a low hit rate means a couple of lottery winners carried it — not a repeatable edge.
1,056 matured company-events scored, of ~1,464 in our window (the rest don't yet have enough price history to grade — coverage grows as the price backfill runs), de-duplicated from 2,749 raw filings across 500 stocks. Entry is taken 2 trading days after the insider's transaction, approximating when the Form 4 is public — so no return here is one a follower couldn't have captured. Horizons are real trading days. A signal is only real if it beats both benchmarks and does so more than half the time. Reference: Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski found opportunistic buys earned ~82bps/month abnormal return — de-duplicated and factor-aware, we are not there on the broad set.
Pick any signal flags. We'll grade the combination across every matured company-event in our data — same de-duplicated unit, same 2-day entry lag, same dual benchmark as our own scorecard. Then pull up the stocks currently matching it.
The honest read, bucket by bucket (don't average it into one number): the baseline — "insiders are buying, buy too" — is roughly flat vs the S&P, slightly negative vs small-caps, and beats the market under half the time. Our own conviction score isn't earning its keep yet either — its top bucket isn't beating its low-conviction control, so we won't pretend it ranks. The pockets that lean positive on both benchmarks in the table above — moderate stake increases (30–99%), directors, mild discounts to the insider's own price, and the overreaction setup — are the ones worth watching, each with its sample size and beat-rate right next to it. We treat them as hypotheses to forward-test in the public ledger, not proof.
Month by month — has it worked consistently?
Each row = an equal-weight basket of that month's opportunistic buys, held 63 trading days. Best month: 2025-05 (+84.3%) · worst: 2025-08 (-1.4%). Price history begins ~May 2025, so that's the earliest month shown; the window lengthens over time.
Methodology, philosophy & references
Why these filters. Insiders sell for dozens of non-informational reasons — taxes, tuition, diversification, scheduled compensation plans. Buying is different: an executive spending six figures of personal cash, at an irregular time, on the open market, is expressing a view. The Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski framework (Journal of Finance, 2012) formalized this: routine trades (same calendar month, 3+ consecutive years) predicted nothing, while opportunistic trades earned ~82 bps/month of abnormal return. We implement that cascade directly on raw SEC Form 4 filings, including the post-2023 mandatory 10b5-1 checkbox and footnote parsing for older filings.
Why the DCF layer. Research in the Journal of Financial Economics shows insider-buying alpha concentrates in value stocks — buying in expensive momentum names is often "corporate theater." Our edge is that every stock here already has a five-model DCF intrinsic value, so the value filter isn't a crude P/B screen: it's a margin-of-safety measure. The "≥15% DCF discount" tab implements exactly the setup the literature supports.
Why cluster & low-density flags. Three or more insiders buying within days of each other is a unified signal (the OpenInsider convention). And recent work shows low-density insiders — executives who almost never trade — precede outsized price moves when they finally act. Both flags are computed per stock, per filing.
Our trading philosophy (and the caveat). A signal is not a plan. Every position needs a thought-through entry and exit — even "buy and hold" is a plan only if you can ride out drawdowns without capitulating. If you can't articulate what would make you exit, the trade is a gamble. Nothing on this page is investment advice; it is an educational research feed built from public SEC data and our own models, both of which can be wrong. Verify filings yourself and consult a licensed advisor before risking capital.
• Cohen, L., Malloy, C. & Pomorski, L. — "Decoding Inside Information," Journal of Finance (2012); NBER Working Paper 16454.
• Rozeff & Zaman / Lakonishok & Lee lineage — insider-buying returns concentrate in high book-to-market (value) stocks, Journal of Financial Economics.
• "Low-density insiders" — trades by rarely-trading executives precede large price moves and M&A, International Review of Economics & Finance (2025).
• SEC Rule 10b5-1 (as amended 2023) — mandatory plan-checkbox disclosure on Form 4; cooling-off periods.
• Cluster-buy convention — OpenInsider / SECForm4 screening practice (≥3 distinct insiders, days-level window).