Do dividend payers beat the market? The record
| Market state at entry | Company-years | vs S&P 12 mo | vs small caps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm ◀ today | 2,097 | +1.4 pts t 1.7 | +3.9 pts |
| Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high) | 289 | −2.8 pts t -1.0 | −2.1 pts |
| Sector (SEC group) | n | vs S&P 12 mo | 3 yrs / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials & manufacturing | 704 | +1.7 pts t 1.2 | −4.4 pts |
| Utilities | 262 | −2.5 pts t -1.8 | −3.1 pts |
| Energy | 217 | +1.8 pts t 0.5 | −6.6 pts |
| Retail & consumer | 179 | +2.9 pts t 0.9 | −0.7 pts |
| Tech hardware & semis | 171 | −0.4 pts t -0.1 | −3.1 pts |
| Finance & real estate | 144 | +2.4 pts t 0.9 | +1.8 pts |
| Other | 132 | +1.9 pts t 0.6 | −3.1 pts |
| Services | 106 | −0.5 pts t -0.2 | +0.1 pts |
| REITs | 71 | −5.0 pts t -1.7 | −12.2 pts |
| Biotech & pharma | 68 | +9.2 pts t 0.9 | −2.6 pts |
| Food, drink & tobacco | 68 | −5.6 pts t -2.0 | −6.3 pts |
| Banks | 56 | −2.4 pts t -0.8 | −9.6 pts |
Holds up out of sample? Before 2017: +3.6 pts (n 979, t 3.5). From 2017: −1.0 pts (n 1,407, t -0.9). Flips sign between halves — treat as noise.
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs S&P | +18 pts | +7 pts | +2 pts | +7 pts | +1 pts | −2 pts | +1 pts | +11 pts | +2 pts | +1 pts | −10 pts | +10 pts | +7 pts | +4 pts | −20 pts | −7 pts | +3 pts |
| n | 4 | 48 | 103 | 151 | 175 | 155 | 158 | 185 | 156 | 149 | 157 | 182 | 138 | 136 | 162 | 172 | 155 |
Read the research behind this screen: Dividend yield: a modest, real edge — until it gets extreme → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →
Yield from the fiscal year's declared dividends per share ÷ price on the 10-K filing date. Financials included. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.
