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Regional Banks

Every analyzed stock in Regional Banks — 67 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Regional Banks risk
Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
56 /100 Elevated ▲ +1 slight
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
70 /100 High ◆ flat
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 63 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
50 Elevated
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 63 stocks.
58 Elevated
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
61 High
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
56.4%
Extreme
Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.
41%
Elevated
Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.
57%
Elevated
Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 51 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
This week in Regional Banks
Regional Banks — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Regional Banks Face Valuation Questions, Sanctions Risk, and Mixed Q2 Earnings →
Regional banks experienced a week of mixed signals, with some facing valuation concerns and a new geopolitical risk from Iran sanctions. Second-quarter earnings reports continued to be a focus, influencing investor perspectives on individual bank performance…
ALKT
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC.
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$19.25
Model IV$18.55
P/IV0.98
Premium +4% Return to IV: -3.6%
Market implies -0.5%/yr vs model +30.7% · below model
ASB
ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$30.04
Model IV$25.22
P/IV1.10
Premium +19% Return to IV: -16.0%
ASBA
ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP
Undervalued
Financial Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$24.89
Model IV$30.29
P/IV0.82
Discount 18% Return to IV: +21.7%
AVBC
Avidia Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$21.77
Model IV$12.86
P/IV1.48
Premium +69% Return to IV: -40.9%
BAFN
BayFirst Financial Corp.
Deeply undervalued
Financial Services Risk 29 · Moderate
Price$8.75
Model IV$12.76
P/IV0.49
Discount 31% Return to IV: +45.8%
BCBP
BCB BANCORP INC
Deeply undervalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$8.44
Model IV$16.97
P/IV1.36
Discount 50% Return to IV: +101.1%
BFC
Bank First Corp
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$154.41
Model IV$75.57
P/IV1.84
Premium +104% Return to IV: -51.1%
BFST
Business First Bancshares, Inc.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$31.42
Model IV$30.54
P/IV0.95
Premium +3% Return to IV: -2.8%
BHB
BAR HARBOR BANKSHARES
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$40.70
Model IV$32.96
P/IV1.06
Premium +23% Return to IV: -19.0%
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$71.56
Model IV$53.36
P/IV1.19
Premium +34% Return to IV: -25.4%
BMRC
Bank of Marin Bancorp
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 70 · High
Price$27.65
Model IV$16.95
P/IV1.52
Premium +63% Return to IV: -38.7%
BPRN
Princeton Bancorp, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Financial Services Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$43.60
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
BSBK
Bogota Financial Corp.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$9.21
Model IV$6.23
P/IV1.35
Premium +48% Return to IV: -32.3%
BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$68.25
Model IV$55.76
P/IV0.94
Premium +22% Return to IV: -18.3%
CBFV
CB Financial Services, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$36.70
Model IV$25.53
P/IV1.40
Premium +44% Return to IV: -30.4%
CIVB
CIVISTA BANCSHARES, INC.
Undervalued
Financial Services Risk 28 · Moderate
Price$27.55
Model IV$36.61
P/IV0.71
Discount 25% Return to IV: +32.9%
CZFS
CITIZENS FINANCIAL SERVICES INC
Undervalued
Financial Services Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$82.21
Model IV$82.89
P/IV0.78
Discount 1% Return to IV: +0.8%
FBK
FB Financial Corp
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$54.76
Model IV$35.57
P/IV1.48
Premium +54% Return to IV: -35.0%
FCBC
FIRST COMMUNITY BANKSHARES INC /VA/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 68 · High
Price$47.39
Model IV$28.61
P/IV1.51
Premium +66% Return to IV: -39.6%
FCCO
FIRST COMMUNITY CORP /SC/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$34.23
Model IV$23.54
P/IV1.28
Premium +45% Return to IV: -31.2%
FGBI
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$8.36
Model IV$8.16
P/IV1.17
Premium +2% Return to IV: -2.4%
FMAO
FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$35.47
Model IV$22.58
P/IV1.24
Premium +57% Return to IV: -36.3%
FVCB
FVCBankcorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$18.45
Model IV$11.95
P/IV1.32
Premium +54% Return to IV: -35.2%
GBCI
GLACIER BANCORP, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$45.75
Model IV$29.30
P/IV1.62
Premium +56% Return to IV: -36.0%
HBAN
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$16.77
Model IV$16.52
P/IV0.99
Premium +2% Return to IV: -1.5%
HBANL
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$25.01
Model IV$18.34
P/IV1.37
Premium +36% Return to IV: -26.7%
HBANM
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$19.88
Model IV$18.34
P/IV1.17
Premium +8% Return to IV: -7.7%
HBANP
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$16.25
Model IV$18.34
P/IV0.91
Discount 11% Return to IV: +12.9%
HBANZ
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$19.09
Model IV$18.34
P/IV1.11
Premium +4% Return to IV: -3.9%
HFBL
Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$25.00
Model IV$16.56
P/IV1.18
Premium +51% Return to IV: -33.8%
HNVR
Hanover Bancorp, Inc. /MD
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$27.41
Model IV$21.13
P/IV1.10
Premium +30% Return to IV: -22.9%
HTB
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$48.30
Model IV$35.76
P/IV1.30
Premium +35% Return to IV: -26.0%
JPM
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$356.23
Model IV$234.24
P/IV1.51
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.2%
KEY
KEYCORP /NEW/
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 68 · High
Price$21.84
Model IV$16.82
P/IV1.27
Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.0%
LARK
LANDMARK BANCORP INC
Valuation N/A
Financial Services Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$32.47
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
MCBS
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$35.43
Model IV$34.82
P/IV0.94
Premium +2% Return to IV: -1.7%
MGYR
Magyar Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$19.18
Model IV$14.71
P/IV1.18
Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.3%
MNSB
MainStreet Bancshares, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Financial Services Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$25.26
Model IV$33.29
P/IV0.69
Discount 24% Return to IV: +31.8%
MNSBP
MainStreet Bancshares, Inc.
Undervalued
Financial Services Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$25.09
Model IV$33.29
P/IV0.75
Discount 25% Return to IV: +32.7%
MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 68 · High
Price$33.59
Model IV$14.38
P/IV1.93
Premium +134% Return to IV: -57.2%
MTB
M&T BANK CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$239.83
Model IV$186.89
P/IV1.16
Premium +28% Return to IV: -22.1%
NBBK
NB Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$22.89
Model IV$17.49
P/IV1.15
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.6%
NFBK
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$15.31
Model IV$12.57
P/IV1.13
Premium +22% Return to IV: -17.9%
NTB
Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Ltd
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$59.93
Model IV$68.72
P/IV0.82
Discount 13% Return to IV: +14.7%
OVBC
OHIO VALLEY BANC CORP
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$46.63
Model IV$31.30
P/IV1.54
Premium +49% Return to IV: -32.9%
OVLY
Oak Valley Bancorp
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$34.44
Model IV$34.59
P/IV0.95
Discount 0% Return to IV: +0.4%
OZK
Bank OZK
Valuation N/A
Unknown
Price$49.12
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
OZKAP
Bank OZK
Valuation N/A
Unknown
Price$15.50
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
PBFS
Pioneer Bancorp, Inc./MD
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 70 · High
Price$18.18
Model IV$10.07
P/IV1.48
Premium +81% Return to IV: -44.6%
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$17.52
Model IV$20.48
P/IV0.67
Discount 14% Return to IV: +16.9%
PKBK
PARKE BANCORP, INC.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$34.72
Model IV$34.27
P/IV0.90
Premium +1% Return to IV: -1.3%
PROV
PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$18.63
Model IV$13.05
P/IV1.40
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
QTWO
Q2 Holdings, Inc.
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$60.89
Model IV$41.20
P/IV1.15
Premium +48% Return to IV: -32.3%
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model +12.3% · in line
RBKB
Rhinebeck Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 60 · High
Price$12.82
Model IV$9.15
P/IV1.78
Premium +40% Return to IV: -28.6%
RVSB
RIVERVIEW BANCORP INC
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$5.63
Model IV$5.71
P/IV0.98
Discount 1% Return to IV: +1.5%
SBFG
SB FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$29.14
Model IV$21.42
P/IV1.01
Premium +36% Return to IV: -26.5%
SRBK
SR Bancorp, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$19.49
Model IV$12.68
P/IV1.48
Premium +54% Return to IV: -34.9%
TCBIO
TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX
Deeply undervalued
Financial Services Risk 23 · Moderate
Price$19.71
Model IV$69.26
P/IV0.31
Discount 72% Return to IV: +251.4%
TSBK
TIMBERLAND BANCORP INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$46.47
Model IV$37.50
P/IV1.20
Premium +24% Return to IV: -19.3%
UCB
UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$35.29
Model IV$28.77
P/IV1.15
Premium +23% Return to IV: -18.5%