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Social Media

Every analyzed stock in Social Media — 22 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Social Media risk
Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
60 /100 High ▲ +3 slight
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
75 /100 High ◆ flat
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 14 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
50 Elevated
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 14 stocks.
69 High
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
58 Elevated
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
52.0%
Elevated
Insider data still collecting — showing market-wide short-selling only. Fill it via Admin → Risk Alerts → "Drain the whole universe".
Smart money is showing the neutral market-wide short-selling reading — the insider buyers'-strike signal turns on once the data finishes collecting (Admin → Risk Alerts → "Collect smart-money now" or "Drain the whole universe").
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
This week in Social Media
Social Media — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Snap’s AI Ad Push, Sirius XM’s AI Leadership, and Social Media Risk Score Rises →
This week, Snap initiated a new AI-driven holiday advertising strategy, while Sirius XM's AI product leadership was noted as a potential factor in its investment case. The overall risk score for the Social Media theme increased,…
BMBL
Bumble Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$2.99
Model IV$37.89
P/IV0.08
Discount 92% Return to IV: +1,167.2%
Market implies -34.4%/yr vs model +11.9% · below model
CXM
Sprinklr, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$5.65
Model IV$2.55
P/IV2.45
Premium +122% Return to IV: -54.9%
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +14.0% · above model
DJT
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$8.66
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +124.6%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model
DJTWW
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$4.81
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +81.3%/yr
GRND
Grindr Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$15.28
Model IV$23.80
P/IV0.53
Discount 36% Return to IV: +55.8%
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
ILLR
Triller Group Inc.
Valuation N/A
Financial Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$0.73
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +56.6%/yr vs model +17.2% · above model
JOYY
JOYY Inc.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$77.26
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +49.8%/yr vs model +7.0% · above model
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$670.24
Model IV$263.70
P/IV2.40
Premium +154% Return to IV: -60.7%
Market implies +26.0%/yr vs model +16.2% · above model
MOMO
Hello Group Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 60 · High
Price$4.95
Model IV$2.39
P/IV2.49
Premium +107% Return to IV: -51.7%
Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +0.4% · above model
NXDR
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$2.27
Model IV$0.63
P/IV3.34
Premium +259% Return to IV: -72.1%
Market implies +18.9%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
PINS
PINTEREST, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$18.76
Model IV$12.82
P/IV1.56
Premium +46% Return to IV: -31.7%
Market implies +15.2%/yr vs model +12.8% · in line
RBLX
Roblox Corp
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$45.50
Model IV$28.93
P/IV1.63
Premium +57% Return to IV: -36.4%
Market implies +7.8%/yr vs model +26.4% · below model
RDDT
Reddit, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 61 · High
Price$162.38
Model IV$51.24
P/IV3.44
Premium +217% Return to IV: -68.4%
Market implies +36.2%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
RMSG
Real Messenger Corp
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$0.33
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
RUM
Rumble Inc.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$8.20
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +33.6%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
SJ
Scienjoy Holding Corp
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$0.69
Model IV$1.66
P/IV0.71
Discount 58% Return to IV: +140.2%
Market implies -21.9%/yr vs model -2.9% · below model
SNAP
Snap Inc
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$5.68
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +35.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SPT
Sprout Social, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$10.80
Model IV$28.88
P/IV0.26
Discount 63% Return to IV: +167.4%
Market implies -17.4%/yr vs model +24.9% · below model
TRIP
TripAdvisor, Inc.
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 64 · High
Price$9.09
Model IV$8.40
P/IV1.33
Premium +8% Return to IV: -7.6%
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model +19.0% · below model
WB
WEIBO Corp
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$6.61
Model IV$13.65
P/IV0.58
Discount 52% Return to IV: +106.5%
Market implies -14.7%/yr vs model -0.7% · below model
WSHP
WeShop Holdings Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$5.38
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
YALA
Yalla Group Ltd
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 25 · Moderate
Price$5.50
Model IV$11.52
P/IV0.19
Discount 52% Return to IV: +109.5%
Market implies -4.9%/yr vs model +7.6% · below model