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Social Media

Every analyzed stock in Social Media — 20 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Social Media risk
Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
52 /100 Elevated ▲ +2 slight
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
69 /100 High ◆ flat
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 13 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
28 Moderate
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 13 stocks.
68 High
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
58 Elevated
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
51.2%
Elevated
Insider data still collecting — showing market-wide short-selling only. Fill it via Admin → Risk Alerts → "Drain the whole universe".
Smart money is showing the neutral market-wide short-selling reading — the insider buyers'-strike signal turns on once the data finishes collecting (Admin → Risk Alerts → "Collect smart-money now" or "Drain the whole universe").
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Divergence: insiders are defensive while macro conditions (credit, curve, volatility) stay calm. Insiders are strong judges of their own companies but poor macro timers — historically this pattern favors selective stock-picking (see the opportunistic-buy signals) over exiting the market wholesale.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
This week in Social Media
Social Media — Aug 10 – Aug 14, 2026 (Wk 33): Reddit’s S&P 500 Inclusion Drives Social Media Stock Activity →
Reddit's announcement of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index led to a notable increase in its stock price this week. This event highlights how index inclusions can influence stock performance within the social media sector.
BMBL
Bumble Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$2.71
Model IV$37.89
P/IV0.08
Discount 93% Return to IV: +1,298.1%
Market implies -36.9%/yr vs model +11.9% · below model
DJT
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$8.30
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +123.6%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model
GRND
Grindr Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$15.75
Model IV$23.80
P/IV0.53
Discount 34% Return to IV: +51.1%
Market implies +13.2%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
ILLR
Triller Group Inc.
Valuation N/A
Financial Services Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$1.07
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +62.9%/yr vs model +17.2% · above model
JOYY
JOYY Inc.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$72.17
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +48.8%/yr vs model +7.0% · above model
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$594.97
Model IV$263.70
P/IV2.40
Premium +126% Return to IV: -55.7%
Market implies +24.2%/yr vs model +16.2% · above model
MOMO
Hello Group Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 61 · High
Price$5.75
Model IV$2.39
P/IV2.49
Premium +141% Return to IV: -58.4%
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +0.4% · above model
NXDR
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$2.58
Model IV$0.63
P/IV3.34
Premium +308% Return to IV: -75.5%
Market implies +20.9%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
PINS
PINTEREST, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$24.06
Model IV$12.82
P/IV1.56
Premium +88% Return to IV: -46.7%
Market implies +18.6%/yr vs model +12.8% · above model
RBLX
Roblox Corp
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$37.79
Model IV$28.93
P/IV1.63
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.4%
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +26.4% · below model
RDDT
Reddit, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$158.12
Model IV$51.24
P/IV3.44
Premium +209% Return to IV: -67.6%
Market implies +35.8%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
RMSG
Real Messenger Corp
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$0.38
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
RUM
Rumble Inc.
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$7.54
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +32.3%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
SJ
Scienjoy Holding Corp
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$0.95
Model IV$1.66
P/IV0.71
Discount 43% Return to IV: +74.5%
Market implies -16.8%/yr vs model -2.9% · below model
SNAP
Snap Inc
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$5.41
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +35.1%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
SPT
Sprout Social, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 25 · Moderate
Price$9.97
Model IV$28.88
P/IV0.26
Discount 65% Return to IV: +189.6%
Market implies -18.8%/yr vs model +24.9% · below model
TRIP
TripAdvisor, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$10.97
Model IV$8.40
P/IV1.33
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.4%
Market implies +17.7%/yr vs model +19.0% · in line
WB
WEIBO Corp
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$7.64
Model IV$13.65
P/IV0.58
Discount 44% Return to IV: +78.7%
Market implies -12.4%/yr vs model -0.7% · below model
WSHP
WeShop Holdings Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Price$5.05
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
YALA
Yalla Group Ltd
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$5.48
Model IV$11.52
P/IV0.19
Discount 52% Return to IV: +110.3%
Market implies -5.0%/yr vs model +7.6% · below model