Luxury Archives - savng.com

Luxury

Every analyzed stock in Luxury — 18 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Luxury risk

Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme

⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months

58 /100 Elevated ▼ -4 mild

Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history

78 /100 High ▲ +2 slight

▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.

Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 9 stocks valued

Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.

35 Moderate

Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 9 stocks.

77 High

Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.

58 Elevated

Smart money — the three inputs

Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.

52.0%

Elevated

Insider data still collecting — showing market-wide short-selling only. Fill it via Admin → Risk Alerts → "Drain the whole universe".

Smart money is showing the neutral market-wide short-selling reading — the insider buyers'-strike signal turns on once the data finishes collecting (Admin → Risk Alerts → "Collect smart-money now" or "Drain the whole universe").

Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.

Divergence: insiders are defensive while macro conditions (credit, curve, volatility) stay calm. Insiders are strong judges of their own companies but poor macro timers — historically this pattern favors selective stock-picking (see the opportunistic-buy signals) over exiting the market wholesale.

Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.