Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
This week in Restaurants
Restaurants — Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2026 (Wk 40): Restaurant Stocks: Analyst Ratings Shift, Darden and BJ’s in Focus →This week saw varied analyst ratings for restaurant stocks, with Darden Restaurants receiving multiple 'Buy' and 'Hold' ratings, and BJ's Restaurants experiencing an upgrade. The broader industry faces headwinds, but some companies are positioned to thrive.
ARCO
Deeply undervalued
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
Price$8.12
Model IV$33.94
P/IV0.21
Discount 76%
Return to IV: +317.9%
Market implies -26.6%/yr
vs model +15.2% · below model
BRCB
Undervalued
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.
Price$7.39
Model IV$10.29
P/IV0.70
Discount 28%
Return to IV: +39.2%
Market implies -4.8%/yr
vs model +22.7% · below model
BTBD
Deeply overvalued
BT Brands, Inc.
Price$1.67
Model IV$0.95
P/IV1.77
Premium +77%
Return to IV: -43.4%
Market implies +8.6%/yr
vs model +15.0% · below model
BTBDW
Valuation N/A
BT Brands, Inc.
Price$0.02
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr
vs model +15.0% · below model
CCHH
Valuation N/A
CCH Holdings Ltd
Price$0.97
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +40.2%/yr
vs model +2.0% · above model
CMG
Deeply overvalued
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Price$30.90
Model IV$20.39
P/IV1.56
Premium +52%
Return to IV: -34.0%
Market implies +14.4%/yr
vs model +10.9% · above model
DPZ
Undervalued
DOMINOS PIZZA INC
Price$302.87
Model IV$373.68
P/IV0.80
Discount 19%
Return to IV: +23.4%
Market implies +1.4%/yr
vs model +4.8% · below model
EAT
Undervalued
BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC
Price$190.44
Model IV$260.59
P/IV0.79
Discount 27%
Return to IV: +36.8%
Market implies +3.1%/yr
vs model +9.0% · below model
GTIM
Deeply undervalued
Good Times Restaurants Inc.
Price$1.49
Model IV$13.29
P/IV0.10
Discount 89%
Return to IV: +791.9%
Market implies -50.0%/yr
vs model +3.4% · below model
HCHL
Valuation N/A
Happy City Holdings Ltd
Price$3.96
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +52.1%/yr
JACK
Deeply undervalued
JACK IN THE BOX INC
Price$12.28
Model IV$48.60
P/IV0.26
Discount 75%
Return to IV: +295.8%
Market implies -15.3%/yr
vs model +10.9% · below model
LOCO
Fairly valued
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
Price$14.39
Model IV$13.10
P/IV1.13
Premium +10%
Return to IV: -8.9%
Market implies +6.6%/yr
vs model +7.7% · in line
MB
Deeply undervalued
MASTERBEEF GROUP
Price$3.86
Model IV$7.17
P/IV0.57
Discount 46%
Return to IV: +85.9%
Market implies -4.5%/yr
vs model +8.0% · below model
MCD
Deeply overvalued
MCDONALDS CORP
Price$232.45
Model IV$172.09
P/IV1.44
Premium +35%
Return to IV: -26.0%
Market implies +8.4%/yr
vs model +5.0% · above model
NATH
Deeply overvalued
NATHANS FAMOUS, INC.
Price$101.84
Model IV$69.18
P/IV1.36
Premium +47%
Return to IV: -32.1%
Market implies +11.3%/yr
vs model +8.3% · in line
NDLS
Deeply undervalued
NOODLES & Co
Price$13.87
Model IV$167.44
P/IV0.08
Discount 92%
Return to IV: +1,107.2%
Market implies -50.0%/yr
vs model +15.0% · below model
PAR
Undervalued
PAR TECHNOLOGY CORP
Price$14.50
Model IV$18.95
P/IV0.81
Discount 23%
Return to IV: +30.7%
Market implies -4.7%/yr
vs model +12.7% · below model
PTLO
Deeply overvalued
Portillo's Inc.
Price$3.78
Model IV$2.30
P/IV1.59
Premium +65%
Return to IV: -39.3%
Market implies +11.3%/yr
vs model +8.1% · above model
QSR
Deeply overvalued
Restaurant Brands International Inc.
Price$70.24
Model IV$46.56
P/IV1.54
Premium +51%
Return to IV: -33.7%
Market implies +13.4%/yr
vs model +9.6% · above model
RAVE
Undervalued
RAVE RESTAURANT GROUP, INC.
Price$2.29
Model IV$3.07
P/IV0.90
Discount 25%
Return to IV: +34.0%
Market implies -2.7%/yr
vs model +6.1% · below model
REBN
Deeply overvalued
Reborn Coffee, Inc.
Price$2.10
Model IV$1.19
P/IV0.91
Premium +76%
Return to IV: -43.2%
Market implies +8.2%/yr
vs model +37.3% · below model
SDOT
Valuation N/A
Sadot Group Inc.
Price$10.70
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr
SHAK
Deeply overvalued
Shake Shack Inc.
Price$64.61
Model IV$15.91
P/IV3.68
Premium +306%
Return to IV: -75.4%
Market implies +28.7%/yr
vs model +11.1% · above model
THCH
Deeply undervalued
TH International Ltd
Price$1.22
Model IV$3.48
P/IV0.37
Discount 65%
Return to IV: +185.2%
Market implies -20.3%/yr
vs model +16.4% · below model
VSTD
Valuation N/A
Vestand Inc.
Price$0.00
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr
vs model +25.2% · below model
WEN
Deeply undervalued
Wendy's Co
Price$6.16
Model IV$32.51
P/IV0.24
Discount 81%
Return to IV: +427.8%
Market implies -14.9%/yr
vs model +9.7% · below model
WING
Deeply overvalued
Wingstop Inc.
Price$112.20
Model IV$72.07
P/IV1.36
Premium +56%
Return to IV: -35.8%
Market implies +16.8%/yr
vs model +13.2% · above model
YUM
Overvalued
YUM BRANDS INC
Price$139.84
Model IV$112.36
P/IV1.25
Premium +24%
Return to IV: -19.7%
Market implies +9.1%/yr
vs model +7.3% · in line
YUMC
Undervalued
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Price$40.62
Model IV$57.20
P/IV0.74
Discount 29%
Return to IV: +40.8%
Market implies +3.1%/yr
vs model +9.5% · below model
