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Theme

Restaurants

Every analyzed stock in Restaurants — 28 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Restaurants risk
Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
28 /100 Moderate ▼ -7 mild
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
52 /100 Elevated ◆ flat
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 22 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
35 Moderate
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 22 stocks.
19 Low
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
34 Moderate
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
44.9%
Moderate
Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.
45%
Elevated
Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.
25%
Moderate
Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 20 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
This week in Restaurants
Restaurants — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Restaurant Sector Sees Price Target Adjustments, Board Changes, and Closures →
This week, several restaurant companies experienced analyst price target adjustments, with Darden Restaurants receiving increased targets from Stephens. Some chains announced significant restaurant closures, while others saw changes in board composition. The sector's risk score increased,…
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$8.01
Model IV$32.12
P/IV0.27
Discount 75% Return to IV: +301.0%
Market implies -25.4%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$8.48
Model IV$4.05
P/IV2.05
Premium +109% Return to IV: -52.2%
Market implies +13.3%/yr vs model +22.7% · below model
BTBD
BT Brands, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$1.74
Model IV$1.89
P/IV0.60
Discount 8% Return to IV: +8.6%
Market implies +0.0%/yr vs model +32.4% · below model
BTBDW
BT Brands, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$0.05
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
CCHH
CCH Holdings Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$1.23
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +43.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$36.20
Model IV$20.39
P/IV1.56
Premium +78% Return to IV: -43.7%
Market implies +16.5%/yr vs model +10.9% · above model
DPZ
DOMINOS PIZZA INC
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$323.77
Model IV$662.56
P/IV0.47
Discount 51% Return to IV: +104.6%
Market implies -2.4%/yr vs model +7.6% · below model
EAT
BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$212.49
Model IV$175.99
P/IV0.81
Premium +21% Return to IV: -17.2%
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +11.3% · in line
GTIM
Good Times Restaurants Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$1.51
Model IV$13.29
P/IV0.10
Discount 89% Return to IV: +783.1%
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +3.4% · below model
JACK
JACK IN THE BOX INC
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$14.78
Model IV$48.60
P/IV0.26
Discount 70% Return to IV: +228.8%
Market implies -12.0%/yr vs model +10.9% · below model
LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$15.18
Model IV$13.10
P/IV1.13
Premium +16% Return to IV: -13.7%
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +7.7% · in line
MB
MASTERBEEF GROUP
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$4.33
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
MCD
MCDONALDS CORP
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Price$252.53
Model IV$172.09
P/IV1.47
Premium +47% Return to IV: -31.9%
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
NATH
NATHANS FAMOUS, INC.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$97.72
Model IV$217.81
P/IV0.46
Discount 55% Return to IV: +122.9%
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
NDLS
NOODLES & Co
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$13.74
Model IV$167.44
P/IV0.08
Discount 92% Return to IV: +1,118.6%
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
PAR
PAR TECHNOLOGY CORP
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$18.00
Model IV$18.95
P/IV0.81
Discount 5% Return to IV: +5.3%
Market implies -1.4%/yr vs model +12.7% · below model
PTLO
Portillo's Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$4.09
Model IV$9.94
P/IV0.43
Discount 59% Return to IV: +142.9%
Market implies -18.3%/yr vs model +8.2% · below model
QSR
Restaurant Brands International Inc.
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$75.49
Model IV$104.64
P/IV0.71
Discount 28% Return to IV: +38.6%
Market implies +5.4%/yr vs model +11.7% · below model
RAVE
RAVE RESTAURANT GROUP, INC.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 34 · Moderate
Price$2.90
Model IV$5.83
P/IV0.52
Discount 50% Return to IV: +100.9%
Market implies -3.3%/yr vs model +11.7% · below model
REBN
Reborn Coffee, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$0.79
Model IV$1.46
P/IV1.37
Discount 46% Return to IV: +86.3%
Market implies -11.3%/yr vs model +38.4% · below model
SDOT
Sadot Group Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High
Price$12.39
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$63.65
Model IV$17.88
P/IV3.60
Premium +256% Return to IV: -71.9%
Market implies +30.2%/yr vs model +15.2% · above model
THCH
TH International Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$1.36
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
VSTD
Vestand Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$0.00
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +25.2% · below model
WEN
Wendy's Co
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$7.63
Model IV$32.51
P/IV0.24
Discount 77% Return to IV: +326.1%
Market implies -12.0%/yr vs model +9.7% · below model
WING
Wingstop Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$100.84
Model IV$114.94
P/IV1.37
Discount 12% Return to IV: +14.0%
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +21.7% · below model
YUM
YUM BRANDS INC
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$140.77
Model IV$166.26
P/IV0.89
Discount 15% Return to IV: +18.1%
Market implies +4.7%/yr vs model +8.2% · below model
YUMC
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$41.69
Model IV$57.20
P/IV0.74
Discount 27% Return to IV: +37.2%
Market implies +3.5%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model