← All sectors

Sector

Consumer Cyclical

Every analyzed stock in Consumer Cyclical — 495 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Consumer Cyclical risk

Near-term vs. long-term risk for this sector

⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months

42 /100 Elevated ▼ -3 slight

Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history

52 /100 Elevated ◆ flat

▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.

Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 358 stocks valued

Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.

33 Moderate

Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 358 stocks.

39 Moderate

◆ flat

Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.

59 Elevated

▼ -1

Smart money — the three inputs

Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.

54.0%

High

Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.

62%

Elevated

Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.

41%

Moderate

Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 375 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.

Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.

Divergence: insiders are defensive while macro conditions (credit, curve, volatility) stay calm. Insiders are strong judges of their own companies but poor macro timers — historically this pattern favors selective stock-picking (see the opportunistic-buy signals) over exiting the market wholesale.

Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest

This week in Consumer Cyclical

Consumer Cyclical — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Consumer Cyclical Sector: Mixed Analyst Sentiments, Elevated Risk, and Insider Buys →

This week saw varied analyst opinions on consumer cyclical stocks, with some price targets lowered while others maintained support despite recent stock slides. The sector's risk score increased, and a notable insider purchase occurred, indicating diverse…

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 69 · High

Premium +216% Return to IV: -68.4%

Market implies +19.0%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate

Model IV$957.18

Discount 79% Return to IV: +366.6%

Market implies -10.6%/yr vs model +14.4% · below model

Able View Global Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated

Premium +145% Return to IV: -59.2%

Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model

Able View Global Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +0.5% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated

Discount 19% Return to IV: +24.1%

Market implies -1.3%/yr vs model +3.5% · below model

AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +45% Return to IV: -30.9%

Market implies +12.3%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model

Aeva Technologies, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Market implies +90.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Market implies +48.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate

Discount 75% Return to IV: +300.5%

Market implies -25.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP /DE/

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated

Premium +61% Return to IV: -37.9%

Market implies +13.1%/yr vs model +9.1% · above model

A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDING CORP.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Discount 68% Return to IV: +211.4%

Market implies -21.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated

Model IV$113.63

Premium +12% Return to IV: -10.5%

Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +6.5% · in line

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 64 · High

Premium +48% Return to IV: -32.3%

Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +7.4% · above model

AMC Robotics Corp

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Market implies +45.5%/yr vs model +15.0% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated

Premium +12% Return to IV: -11.0%

Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +10.6% · in line

AMAZE HOLDINGS, INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 48 · Elevated

Market implies +3.8%/yr vs model +3.7% · in line

Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High

Market implies +39.0%/yr

AUTONATION, INC.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated

Model IV$142.96

Premium +42% Return to IV: -29.8%

Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +3.6% · above model

ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Model IV$141.62

Premium +3% Return to IV: -2.5%

Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +12.8% · in line

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Discount 23% Return to IV: +30.5%

Market implies +2.2%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model

American Outdoor Brands, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +98% Return to IV: -49.6%

Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Discount 31% Return to IV: +45.3%

Market implies +0.4%/yr vs model +7.2% · below model

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Discount 75% Return to IV: +301.0%

Market implies -25.4%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High

Premium +35% Return to IV: -26.1%

Market implies +13.8%/yr vs model +12.7% · in line

ARK RESTAURANTS CORP

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Discount 93% Return to IV: +1,304.1%

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +5.9% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated

Premium +83% Return to IV: -45.3%

Market implies +16.2%/yr vs model +10.3% · above model

Amer Sports, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 64 · High

Premium +33% Return to IV: -24.6%

Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd

Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated

Premium +21% Return to IV: -17.4%

Market implies +21.5%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High

Premium +96% Return to IV: -49.1%

Market implies +14.7%/yr vs model +6.1% · above model

APTARGROUP, INC.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated

Premium +72% Return to IV: -42.0%

Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model

ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES INC

Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated

Model IV$145.87

Premium +12% Return to IV: -11.0%

Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +11.7% · in line

Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated

Model IV$3,531.48

Discount 19% Return to IV: +23.5%

Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +11.1% · below model

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated

Discount 75% Return to IV: +307.0%

Market implies -24.8%/yr vs model +16.5% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Market implies +27.4%/yr vs model +6.3% · above model

BED BATH & BEYOND, INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +3% Return to IV: -3.1%

Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP INC

Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated

Discount 42% Return to IV: +73.4%

Market implies -0.1%/yr vs model +11.0% · below model

Bath & Body Works, Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate

Discount 66% Return to IV: +191.8%

Market implies -10.5%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model

BEST BUY CO INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Premium +38% Return to IV: -27.6%

Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +2.7% · above model

FLANIGANS ENTERPRISES INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate

Discount 22% Return to IV: +27.7%

Market implies +2.6%/yr vs model +9.8% · below model

BIRKS GROUP INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +5.6% · below model

Biglari Holdings Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Limited data — see page

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Market implies +17.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

Birkenstock Holding plc

Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High

Limited data — see page

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +48% Return to IV: -32.5%

Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model

BJs RESTAURANTS INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated

Premium +163% Return to IV: -62.0%

Market implies +20.1%/yr vs model +9.4% · above model

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated

Discount 35% Return to IV: +54.1%

Market implies -3.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated

Premium +32% Return to IV: -24.3%

Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line

Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Model IV$104.81

Discount 42% Return to IV: +73.6%

Market implies -10.5%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model

Bloomin' Brands, Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate

Discount 39% Return to IV: +63.7%

Market implies -2.9%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated

Discount 32% Return to IV: +46.2%

Market implies -3.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Bob's Discount Furniture, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Beachbody Company, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High

Discount 27% Return to IV: +36.5%

Market implies -18.0%/yr vs model -10.0% · below model

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +139% Return to IV: -58.2%

Market implies +20.4%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model

Boqii Holding Ltd

Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated

Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.0%

Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model +6.8% · in line

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High

Premium +109% Return to IV: -52.2%

Market implies +13.3%/yr vs model +22.7% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated

Market implies -30.9%/yr vs model +4.9% · below model

Dutch Bros Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated

Premium +33% Return to IV: -24.8%

Market implies +6.6%/yr vs model +34.7% · below model