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Consumer Cyclical

Every analyzed stock in Consumer Cyclical — 495 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Consumer Cyclical risk
Near-term vs. long-term risk for this sector
⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months
48 /100 Elevated ▲ +3 slight
Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history
52 /100 Elevated ◆ flat
▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.
Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 358 stocks valued
Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.
50 Elevated
Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 358 stocks.
39 Moderate
◆ flat
Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.
59 Elevated
▼ -1
Smart money — the three inputs
Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.
54.1%
High
Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.
62%
Elevated
Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.
41%
Moderate
Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 373 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.
Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.
Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.
Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
This week in Consumer Cyclical
Consumer Cyclical — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Consumer Cyclical Sector: Mixed Analyst Sentiments, Elevated Risk, and Insider Buys →
This week saw varied analyst opinions on consumer cyclical stocks, with some price targets lowered while others maintained support despite recent stock slides. The sector's risk score increased, and a notable insider purchase occurred, indicating diverse…
BSET
BASSETT FURNITURE INDUSTRIES INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$17.69
Model IV$12.38
P/IV1.21
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
Market implies +3.6%/yr vs model +1.3% · in line
BTBD
BT Brands, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$1.74
Model IV$1.89
P/IV0.60
Discount 8% Return to IV: +8.6%
Market implies +0.0%/yr vs model +32.4% · below model
BTBDW
BT Brands, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$0.05
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$239.04
Model IV$220.23
P/IV1.19
Premium +9% Return to IV: -7.9%
Market implies -1.3%/yr vs model +5.5% · below model
BWA
BORGWARNER INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$66.65
Model IV$51.69
P/IV1.39
Premium +29% Return to IV: -22.4%
Market implies +8.4%/yr vs model +5.9% · in line
BWMX
BETTERWARE DE MEXICO, S.A.P.I. DE C.V
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$15.54
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
BYD
BOYD GAMING CORP
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$77.15
Model IV$132.68
P/IV0.62
Discount 42% Return to IV: +72.0%
Market implies +1.0%/yr vs model +9.9% · below model
BZUN
Baozun Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$2.73
Model IV$3.03
P/IV0.85
Discount 10% Return to IV: +11.1%
Market implies +3.3%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
CAAS
China Automotive Systems, Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Price$5.28
Model IV$5.75
P/IV0.81
Discount 8% Return to IV: +8.8%
Market implies +3.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
CAKE
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$102.70
Model IV$51.46
P/IV1.28
Premium +100% Return to IV: -49.9%
Market implies +16.7%/yr vs model +9.0% · above model
CAL
CALERES INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Price$12.51
Model IV$7.96
P/IV1.83
Premium +57% Return to IV: -36.4%
Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +6.2% · above model
CALY
Callaway Golf Co
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$15.46
Model IV$15.43
P/IV1.02
Premium +0% Return to IV: -0.2%
Market implies -2.6%/yr vs model +5.8% · below model
CASY
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$615.47
Model IV$532.65
P/IV1.44
Premium +16% Return to IV: -13.5%
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +13.8% · in line
CATO
CATO CORP
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 26 · Moderate
Price$2.37
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -36.1%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
CAVA
CAVA GROUP, INC.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$49.99
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +20.0%/yr vs model +23.9% · below model
CBRL
CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$50.53
Model IV$32.54
P/IV1.04
Premium +55% Return to IV: -35.6%
Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
CCHH
CCH Holdings Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$1.23
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +43.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
CDW
CDW Corp
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$153.79
Model IV$130.96
P/IV0.96
Premium +17% Return to IV: -14.8%
Market implies +6.6%/yr vs model +5.2% · in line
CENN
Cenntro Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 28 · Moderate
Price$4.50
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +65.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
CHA
Chagee Holdings Ltd.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$12.21
Model IV$12.52
P/IV1.02
Discount 2% Return to IV: +2.5%
Market implies +6.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
CHH
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL INC /DE
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$96.77
Model IV$155.10
P/IV0.70
Discount 38% Return to IV: +60.3%
Market implies +4.5%/yr vs model +13.8% · below model
CHWY
Chewy, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$21.35
Model IV$12.91
P/IV1.55
Premium +65% Return to IV: -39.5%
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model +8.6% · above model
CLAR
Clarus Corp
Overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$3.55
Model IV$2.36
P/IV1.30
Premium +50% Return to IV: -33.4%
Market implies +5.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$36.20
Model IV$20.39
P/IV1.56
Premium +78% Return to IV: -43.7%
Market implies +16.5%/yr vs model +10.9% · above model
CMT
CORE MOLDING TECHNOLOGIES INC
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$23.75
Model IV$91.45
P/IV0.26
Discount 74% Return to IV: +285.1%
Market implies -1.4%/yr vs model +22.2% · below model
CNNE
Cannae Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Price$15.41
Model IV$3.20
P/IV4.64
Premium +382% Return to IV: -79.2%
Market implies +19.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
CNTY
CENTURY CASINOS INC /CO/
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$1.13
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +10.2% · below model
CODI
Compass Diversified Holdings
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Price$11.10
Model IV$14.18
P/IV0.80
Discount 22% Return to IV: +27.8%
Market implies -4.3%/yr vs model +2.1% · below model
COLM
COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR CO
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$57.67
Model IV$57.19
P/IV1.16
Premium +1% Return to IV: -0.8%
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +7.9% · in line
COST
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$901.35
Model IV$364.14
P/IV2.48
Premium +148% Return to IV: -59.6%
Market implies +18.9%/yr vs model +8.6% · above model
CPNG
Coupang, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$15.12
Model IV$8.32
P/IV1.99
Premium +82% Return to IV: -45.0%
Market implies +19.5%/yr vs model +14.3% · above model
CPRI
Capri Holdings Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High
Price$13.89
Model IV$9.57
P/IV1.93
Premium +45% Return to IV: -31.1%
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
CPRT
COPART INC
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 26 · Moderate
Price$31.04
Model IV$41.80
P/IV0.78
Discount 26% Return to IV: +34.7%
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +12.6% · below model
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$23.08
Model IV$16.16
P/IV1.88
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +5.3% · above model
CRI
CARTERS INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 68 · High
Price$30.50
Model IV$16.94
P/IV2.28
Premium +80% Return to IV: -44.5%
Market implies +10.8%/yr vs model +4.0% · above model
CRMT
AMERICAS CARMART INC
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 30 · Moderate
Price$1.76
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +9.4% · below model
CROX
Crocs, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$111.49
Model IV$324.79
P/IV0.37
Discount 66% Return to IV: +191.3%
Market implies -1.8%/yr vs model +16.8% · below model
CRWS
CROWN CRAFTS INC
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 26 · Moderate
Price$2.57
Model IV$10.37
P/IV0.28
Discount 75% Return to IV: +303.3%
Market implies -20.6%/yr vs model +4.1% · below model
CSAN
Cosan S.A.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate
Price$2.73
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
CSL
CARLISLE COMPANIES INC
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$327.92
Model IV$395.72
P/IV0.07
Discount 17% Return to IV: +20.7%
Market implies +5.3%/yr vs model +11.3% · below model
CSV
CARRIAGE SERVICES INC
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$32.28
Model IV$43.42
P/IV0.95
Discount 26% Return to IV: +34.5%
Market implies +1.9%/yr vs model +8.1% · below model
CTAS
CINTAS CORP
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Price$201.50
Model IV$112.31
P/IV1.52
Premium +79% Return to IV: -44.3%
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +9.3% · above model
CTRN
Citi Trends Inc
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$60.62
Model IV$53.00
P/IV0.95
Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.6%
Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
CULP
CULP INC
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 31 · Moderate
Price$3.75
Model IV$8.50
P/IV0.36
Discount 56% Return to IV: +126.6%
Market implies -20.1%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
CURV
Torrid Holdings Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$2.25
Model IV$9.28
P/IV0.17
Discount 76% Return to IV: +312.5%
Market implies -29.9%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
CVEO
Civeo Corp
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$33.41
Model IV$39.61
P/IV0.86
Discount 16% Return to IV: +18.6%
Market implies -5.1%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
CVGI
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$3.17
Model IV$3.38
P/IV1.52
Discount 6% Return to IV: +6.7%
Market implies -5.1%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
CVNA
CARVANA CO.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Price$69.16
Model IV$43.77
P/IV1.67
Premium +58% Return to IV: -36.7%
Market implies +16.0%/yr vs model +11.0% · above model
CVS
CVS HEALTH Corp
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate
Price$94.66
Model IV$187.57
P/IV0.52
Discount 50% Return to IV: +98.2%
Market implies -1.1%/yr vs model +9.3% · below model
CWH
Camping World Holdings, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical
Price$5.76
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
CZR
Caesars Entertainment, Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$29.65
Model IV$29.59
P/IV0.98
Premium +0% Return to IV: -0.2%
Market implies +4.8%/yr vs model +5.7% · in line
DAKT
DAKTRONICS INC /SD/
Undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$17.89
Model IV$23.73
P/IV0.87
Discount 25% Return to IV: +32.7%
Market implies +3.5%/yr vs model +10.8% · below model
DAN
DANA Inc
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$31.08
Model IV$11.71
P/IV3.03
Premium +165% Return to IV: -62.3%
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
DBGI
Digital Brands Group, Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$6.00
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +45.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
DBI
Designer Brands Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$5.88
Model IV$11.72
P/IV0.66
Discount 50% Return to IV: +99.3%
Market implies -6.7%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
DCH
Dauch Corp
Deeply undervalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate
Price$6.25
Model IV$18.03
P/IV0.37
Discount 65% Return to IV: +188.5%
Market implies -16.4%/yr vs model +4.6% · below model
DCX
Digital Currency X Technology Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$0.54
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
DDL
Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical
Price$2.20
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
DDS
DILLARD'S, INC.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$650.57
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
DDT
DILLARD'S, INC.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$25.94
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page