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Consumer Cyclical

Every analyzed stock in Consumer Cyclical — 495 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Consumer Cyclical risk

Near-term vs. long-term risk for this sector

⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months

48 /100 Elevated ▲ +3 slight

Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history

52 /100 Elevated ◆ flat

▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.

Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 358 stocks valued

Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.

50 Elevated

Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 358 stocks.

39 Moderate

◆ flat

Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.

59 Elevated

▼ -1

Smart money — the three inputs

Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.

54.1%

High

Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.

62%

Elevated

Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.

41%

Moderate

Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 373 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.

Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.

Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest

This week in Consumer Cyclical

Consumer Cyclical — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Consumer Cyclical Sector: Mixed Analyst Sentiments, Elevated Risk, and Insider Buys →

This week saw varied analyst opinions on consumer cyclical stocks, with some price targets lowered while others maintained support despite recent stock slides. The sector's risk score increased, and a notable insider purchase occurred, indicating diverse…

DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP

Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate

Model IV$157.58

Discount 48% Return to IV: +93.9%

Market implies +1.5%/yr vs model +12.8% · below model

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate

Model IV$247.82

Discount 50% Return to IV: +98.9%

Market implies -2.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

1stdibs.com, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 31 · Moderate

Market implies +39.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

Dine Brands Global, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated

Discount 35% Return to IV: +55.0%

Market implies -1.5%/yr vs model +6.5% · below model

DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High

Model IV$123.98

Premium +9% Return to IV: -8.2%

Market implies +11.2%/yr vs model +12.6% · in line

Dolphin Entertainment, Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate

Discount 72% Return to IV: +261.1%

Market implies -27.3%/yr vs model +12.2% · below model

DULUTH HOLDINGS INC.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated

Premium +86% Return to IV: -46.3%

Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model -1.2% · above model

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +141% Return to IV: -58.5%

Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model -0.2% · above model

Dogness (International) Corp

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Discount 25% Return to IV: +32.9%

Market implies -12.9%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Consumer Cyclical

Limited data — see page

Dorman Products, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High

Premium +185% Return to IV: -65.0%

Market implies +20.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Model IV$315.97

Discount 34% Return to IV: +50.5%

Market implies +6.1%/yr vs model +14.7% · below model

DESWELL INDUSTRIES INC

Consumer Cyclical Risk 32 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

DESTINATION XL GROUP, INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated

Market implies -24.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC

Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated

Model IV$175.99

Premium +21% Return to IV: -17.2%

Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +11.3% · in line

CXJ GROUP CO., Ltd

Consumer Cyclical

Market implies +39.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 64 · High

Premium +7% Return to IV: -6.9%

Market implies -0.7%/yr vs model +14.4% · below model

Empery Digital Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 27 · Moderate

Market implies +60.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated

Market implies +35.6%/yr vs model +8.4% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High

Premium +34% Return to IV: -25.4%

Market implies -1.8%/yr vs model -2.1% · in line

ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated

Premium +91% Return to IV: -47.6%

Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model -3.4% · above model

EVI INDUSTRIES, INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated

Market implies +135.0%/yr vs model +9.6% · above model

Envirotech Vehicles, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 31 · Moderate

Market implies +52.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

EZGO Technologies Ltd.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Discount 89% Return to IV: +831.2%

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +8.5% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated

Premium +9% Return to IV: -8.2%

Market implies +11.7%/yr vs model +12.9% · in line

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 22 · Moderate

Discount 49% Return to IV: +96.9%

Market implies -3.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High

Premium +133% Return to IV: -57.0%

Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model

FirstCash Holdings, Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate

Model IV$345.24

Discount 34% Return to IV: +51.2%

Market implies +2.3%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model

FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT ELECTRIC INC.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Risk 53 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High

Premium +402% Return to IV: -80.1%

Market implies +30.6%/yr vs model +9.9% · above model

FIVE BELOW, INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated

Model IV$121.67

Premium +94% Return to IV: -48.5%

Market implies +19.0%/yr vs model +12.0% · above model

FULL HOUSE RESORTS INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated

Discount 79% Return to IV: +386.7%

Market implies -31.4%/yr vs model +13.8% · below model

1 800 FLOWERS COM INC

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated

Discount 73% Return to IV: +273.3%

Market implies -23.9%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

FLEXSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Premium +13% Return to IV: -11.7%

Market implies +6.6%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated

Market implies +97.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Fly-E Group, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Discount 29% Return to IV: +41.4%

Market implies -2.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

Kandal M Venture Ltd

Consumer Cyclical

Limited data — see page

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High

Premium +164% Return to IV: -62.1%

Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +27% Return to IV: -21.2%

Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

Fossil Group, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 48 · Elevated

Premium +23% Return to IV: -18.6%

Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP

Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High

Market implies +27.3%/yr vs model +4.6% · above model

FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +186% Return to IV: -65.1%

Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 38 · Moderate

Discount 61% Return to IV: +155.7%

Market implies -16.1%/yr vs model +19.4% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.1%

Market implies +4.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line

GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 72 · High

Premium +170% Return to IV: -62.9%

Market implies +18.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 39 · Moderate

Discount 24% Return to IV: +30.8%

Market implies +0.7%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model

GigaCloud Technology Inc

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate

Model IV$105.58

Discount 51% Return to IV: +103.6%

Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model

GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP

Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated

Model IV$356.45

Premium +0% Return to IV: -0.1%

Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +8.9% · in line

GEN Restaurant Group, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated

Market implies -21.5%/yr vs model +9.1% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 46 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 36 · Moderate

Discount 94% Return to IV: +1,554.9%

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model

G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 33 · Moderate

Model IV$115.81

Discount 76% Return to IV: +317.2%

Market implies -17.2%/yr vs model +6.2% · below model

Gildan Activewear Inc.

Consumer Cyclical Risk 37 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

General Motors Co

Deeply undervalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 29 · Moderate

Model IV$182.62

Discount 53% Return to IV: +113.3%

Market implies -4.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High

Premium +185% Return to IV: -65.0%

Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model -5.9% · above model

GMEX Robotics Corp

Consumer Cyclical Risk 28 · Moderate

Market implies -15.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model

Consumer Cyclical Risk 25 · Moderate

Discount 28% Return to IV: +38.0%

Market implies +2.1%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model