AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 22 days ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

AMAZON COM INC

AMZN Consumer Cyclical E-Commerce📄 SEC filings ↗
Model suggests significant overvaluation
⚠ Low-confidence DCF estimate
Price vs model IV Expensive (+1,259%) Long-term trend (200d) 12% above 200-day DCF applicability Low Risk 60/100 High
▾ What's in the 60/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Valuation (price vs model IV) (30%) 92/100 → +27.6
Fundamental health (30%) 57/100 → +17.1
leverage 20/100 · FCF trend 90/100 · DCF applicability 80/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (22%) 45/100 → +9.9
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (18%) 28/100 → +5.0
Total60/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $262.65 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 22 days ago
📍 START HERE

How to read AMZN

AMZN generates real cash flow, but the DCF here is a low-confidence estimate — the value is sensitive to how we normalize cash flow, cyclicality, and secular/industry risk. Treat the DCF as one input, then pressure-test it against the reverse-DCF, leverage, and the operating trends below.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 The verdict + intrinsic value (our DCF) ↓
    Our estimate of what a share is worth, versus today's price.
  2. 2 Reverse-DCF + the interactive calculator ↓
    See the growth the price assumes, then flex every assumption yourself to pressure-test it.
  3. 3 Football field + peers ↓
    A cross-check across methods and against comparable companies.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
⚖️
"Is it worth what it costs?"
The valuation trade. Our DCF, the growth the price implies, and a calculator you drive yourself.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Why does AMZN trade at $262.65?

AMAZON COM INC has 10.83 billion shares outstanding. At $262.65 per share, the market values all outstanding AMZN equity at $2.84 trillion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values AMZN in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
VALUATION LENS — REVERSE DCF

What cash-flow improvement must the market believe? ?Reverse DCF — Instead of asking "what is this stock worth?", asks "what growth rate is the current market price already assuming?"
Why it matters: It crystallizes the bull thesis as a single number you can argue with. If the market expects 40% growth for 10 years and you do not believe that, the stock is overvalued.
Reference: 10–15% = sustainable for strong companies · 20–25% = exceptional · 30%+ = historically very rare

Reverse DCF treats today's price as correct and solves for the cash-flow path that justifies it. For a cyclical, read the result as the annual improvement in through-cycle free cash flow the price requires — which could come from higher realized commodity prices, margin recovery, lower input costs, more volume, or reduced capex, not just organic growth. The starting base is our normalized mid-cycle median, not last year's number.

To justify today's $262.65 price, AMZN's through-cycle free cash flow?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → must improve by:
+44.5%
10-year flat improvement in through-cycle FCF implied by today's price
This is a different figure from the 58.1% in the verdict at the top: that one is the 5-year implied per-share growth on the model's scenario-weighted path, while this is a 10-year flat rate. Different horizon and shape, so a different number — not a contradiction. Both are solved at today's live price.
▾ Exactly how this 10-year figure is computed
Starting FCF/share: $1.33 (normalized multi-year median)
Forecast length: 10 years, single flat growth rate (no fade)
Terminal growth after year 10: 2.5%
Discount rate: 11.8% (the rate the model used)
Price used: $262.65 — the live price shown on this page (not frozen)
Method: solve for the constant annual growth rate that makes the discounted 10-year FCF stream + terminal value equal today's price.
Borderline impossible

Approaching the upper limit of what any company has sustained for a full decade at scale. The bull case requires a unique, irreplicable advantage.

For reference: Historically near-impossible — sustaining 30%+ cash-flow growth for a decade at scale is exceedingly rare.

▾ How we computed this · Reality check thresholds · Assumptions
Inputs:
  • Starting FCF/share: $1.33 (normalized multi-year median)
  • Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
    Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
    Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
    Full explanation →    : 11.8% — standard 8-12%; 9-10% matches S&P 500 historical return
  • Terminal Growth Rate?Terminal Growth Rate — The growth rate we assume the company holds forever, after the explicit 10-year forecast period ends.
    Why it matters: It anchors the long-tail value. Cannot mathematically exceed long-term GDP growth or the company eventually becomes larger than the global economy.
    Reference: 2–3% (matches long-term US GDP growth) · Above 4% is mathematically problematic
    Full explanation →    : 2.5% — matches long-term GDP growth
  • Forecast horizon: 10 years explicit + terminal perpetuity
Reality-check scale:
≤ 0%Priced for decline — likely undervalued OR dying business
5-12%Reasonable; sustainable for quality businesses
12-18%Demanding — strong execution required
18-25%Exceptional — few companies sustain for a decade
25-35%Heroic — historically very rare
35%+Borderline impossible at scale

Sustaining 30%+ cash-flow growth for a full decade at scale is exceedingly rare — the bar is brutally high.

Use the interactive calculator below to change the discount rate, growth and terminal-growth assumptions and watch the value move.

VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

If FCF grew -5%/yr → 14%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes 8.0%)$9$33Our model's scenarios (cons→opt growth, weighted 40/35/25)$17$23Current: $262.65$8$75$142$209$276
The current price sits ABOVE the high end of every method. The market is paying a premium to all of these lenses — it expects materially better growth or margins than the models assume.

Industry multiples sourced from: broad market average (sector unknown). See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski checks
5 passed · 3 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 5 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $77,670.0M in the latest year.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $139,514.0M (was $115,877.0M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $139,514.0M vs net income $77,670.0M.
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 9.5% vs 9.5% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 8.0% of assets vs 8.4% a year ago ($65,648.0M now).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 1.05x vs 1.06x a year ago.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 1.0% (10,721.0M → 10,827.0M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.88x vs 1.02x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 11.8%, the figure our model used for AMZN. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $19.32. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.

Probability-weighted model IV
$19.32
It trades at
$262.65
Premium to model IV
+1,259.5%
Price is 1,259% above model IV — it looks overvalued. Change the assumptions below to see what would justify today's price.
We value this stock at two discount rates and report the range between them:
11.8% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's Beta?Beta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 1.32. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
9.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 11.8% — the beta-based rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)
Flat-path value at your assumptions (single growth path — not the probability-weighted scenario IV)
$19.32
vs today's $262.65
+1,259.5%

At the default assumptions the flat path lands near our published value of $19.32. Move any slider to recompute it with your own.

For comparison — the FCF growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think AMZN can grow FCF for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$262.65
    Model IV$19.32
    Premium to IV+1,259.5%
    DCF applicabilityLow
    ⚠️ Outlier ResultP/IV 13.6x — result dominated by model assumptions or data limits. Treat with caution.
    ⚠️ Outlier result (P/IV 13.6x) — this valuation gap is too extreme to produce reliable growth or return estimates. The model may not suit this company's profile.

    AMZN is deep_overvalued, with the price 1101.4% ABOVE intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →     (a 1101.4% premium). The market appears to be paying up for its consistent revenue growth (11.1%/yr over 4yr) and positive operating cash flow, alongside potential optionality in its cloud computing and advertising segments. The biggest risk to our model's base assumptions is that the company's long-term debt, which has been RISING from $48744M to $65648M, continues to increase without a commensurate rise in owner-earnings FCF?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
    Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
    Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
    Full explanation →    .

    ⚠️ Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).

    As of 22 days ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    AMZN AMAZON COM INC stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    10.8%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 10.8¢ of every dollar ($7.17/sh — latest fiscal-year net income per share)
    Costs & taxes — 89.2¢ (on $66.22 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $263/share buys $66.22 of revenue per share per year, generates $7.17 of net income per current share, and $-1.09 of owner-earnings free cash flow per current share (latest fiscal year). Each share carries $6.32 of debt. The DCF does not start from that single year — it instead starts from a normalized multi-year median of $1.33 per share to capture a full cycle.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    The most important thing that must go right is for underlying cash flow from operations to continue growing at a rate that supports the market's implied 58.1% annual per-share cash-flow growth, driven by sustained expansion in high-margin segments like AWS and advertising.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest operating risk is that the company's long-term debt, which has risen from $48744M to $65648M, continues to increase without a corresponding increase in owner-earnings FCF?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
    Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
    Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
    Full explanation →    , or that competition in its core segments erodes margins, causing per-share cash flow to decline from its current positive level.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Growth rate of Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue
    • Trends in free cash flow generation relative to capital expenditures
    • Changes in long-term debt levels and interest expense
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +12% to $716.92B.
    • Net income grew +31% to $77.67B.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$11.77B — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Jeff Bezos founded Amazon and served as CEO until 2021, remaining as Executive Chairman. Andy Jassy, who previously led Amazon Web Services, became CEO in July 2021. The executive team focuses on expanding market share across its diverse business segments.

    Andy Jassy
    Chief Executive Officer
    Jeff Bezos
    Executive Chairman
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Amazon sells a vast array of products and services online and in physical stores, and provides cloud computing services. Its primary paying customers are consumers purchasing goods, businesses utilizing its cloud infrastructure (AWS), and advertisers.

    End Markets

    E-commerce RetailCloud ComputingDigital Advertising

    Revenue Drivers

    Online Stores
    Amazon Web Services (AWS)
    Third-Party Seller Services
    Market Cap: 2.8TBeta: 1.32
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Extensive product selection and competitive pricing
    Convenient and fast delivery options
    Scalable and reliable cloud computing infrastructure
    Intrinsic Value$19.32
    Premium to IV +1,259.5%
    Outlier Result P/IV 13.6x — valuation gap too extreme for meaningful implied growth or return estimates.

    The market prices AMZN at a premium of +1101.4% to intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    , implying a 58.1% annual per-share cash-flow growth rate. This premium likely reflects the company's consistent revenue growth (11.1%/yr over 4yr) and its history of positive operating cash flow, which has been positive for 5/5 years. The market may also be assigning value to future growth opportunities in high-margin segments like AWS and advertising, which is not fully captured by backward-looking cash flow models.

    Three Scenarios, Weighted
    ScenarioIVvs PriceWeight
    Conservative$16.76-93.6%40%
    Base$19.63-92.5%35%
    Optimistic$22.97-91.3%25%
    Weighted$19.32-92.6%100%
    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Online retail sales of consumer products
    Subscription services (e.g., Prime memberships)
    Cloud computing services (Amazon Web Services)

    Amazon does not currently pay a dividend or engage in significant share buybacks. It primarily funds its operations and growth initiatives through internally generated cash flow and, at times, debt, with long-term debt RISING from $48744M to $65648M.

    Normalized FCF Low

    Mature company (rev $716.9B) with negative current FCF but positive OCF in 5/5 years. Using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus maintenance capex).

    ▾ Why is DCF applicability "Low" for AMZN?
    A "Low" score means an FCF-DCF is a weaker fit for this business — not that the number is wrong, but that it deserves more skepticism. The specific drivers here:
    • The latest single-year FCF sits materially below the normalized figure the model uses, a sign of cyclicality.
    • Individual business-segment drivers are not forecast separately — the model works off consolidated cash flow only.

    Because of this, we headline the more conservative discount rate and urge you to weight the reverse-DCF, leverage, and operating trends alongside the DCF.

    In plain English: we estimate AMZN's value by projecting its owner-earnings free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure and stock-based compensation) into the future and converting it back to what it's worth today. We start from $1.33 per share (normalized multi-year median), assume it grows 8.0% per year for about 5 years (then gradually fades), and discount everything at 11.8% — the yearly return a buyer should demand for this much risk. After that it's assumed to grow 2.5% per year forever (roughly the long-run pace of the whole economy). A higher discount rate or slower growth means a lower value, and vice-versa — change any of these yourself in the calculator above.
    Owner-earnings FCF / share$1.33normalized multi-year median — smoothed, not the latest single year
    Growth (g₁) — 5yr8.0%Source: blend(70% revenue cagr, 30% sector)
    Discount Rate (r)11.8%
    Terminal Growth (gT)2.5%
    Show advanced inputs
    RevenueGrowth11.1%
    HistoricalFcfGrowth32.6%
    SectorDefault8.0%
    SectorDefaultSourceConsumer Cyclical sector default
    BestEstimate10.2%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)
    GrowthBasistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Mature cash-generating business

    Moat Signals

    Strong brand recognition and customer loyalty
    Extensive logistics and distribution network
    Economies of scale in e-commerce and cloud services

    Revenue has been growing at 11.1%/yr over the last four years, from $469822M to $716924M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Amazon is US-headquartered with significant international exposure across North America, Europe, and other regions, though exact segment splits are not available in current filings.

    Geographic Risks

    Geographic risk due to broad international operations and varying regulatory environments
    Concentration risk in e-commerce and cloud computing markets, facing intense competition
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bearish, tape neutral
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    37.5NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$249.22Price above (+5.4%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$234.59Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (5)
    • Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
    • Median OCF: $84.95B, est. maintenance capex: $50.97B, normalized SBC: $19.62B, normalized owner-earnings FCF: $14.36B.
    • Price is 12x model IV - market may be pricing optionality, narrative catalysts, or margin expansion beyond what trailing cash flows support.
    • Cyclical commodity producer: price is 12.0x the through-cycle free-cash-flow value ($19.32). FCF-DCF structurally understates capital-intensive miners/energy — use the EV/Sales peer lens and the commodity-price outlook, not this single number.
    • Extreme valuation gap (P/IV 12.02): result may be dominated by model assumptions, share count issues, or sector-specific dynamics. Treat as low confidence.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From AMAZON COM INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025716.9B77.7B$7.17
    2024638.0B59.2B$5.53
    2023574.8B30.4B$2.90
    2022514.0B-2.7B$-0.27
    2021469.8B33.4B$3.24

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBCFree Cash Flow
    2025 139.5B 131.8B 19.5B -11.8B
    2024 115.9B 83.0B 22.0B 10.9B
    2023 84.9B 52.7B 24.0B 8.2B
    2022 46.8B 63.6B 19.6B -36.5B
    2021 46.3B 61.1B 12.8B -27.5B

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 139.5B − 131.8B − 19.5B (stock-based comp) = -11.8B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a normalized multi-year median, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets818.0B
    Total Liabilities407.0B
    Equity411.1B
    Total Debt68.4B
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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed 22 days ago (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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