Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
This week in Airlines
Airlines — Oct 5 – Oct 9, 2026 (Wk 41): Southwest Airlines Cuts Guidance, American Airlines Expands Starlink Wi-Fi →Southwest Airlines revised its financial outlook downward, prompting investor scrutiny of its valuation. Meanwhile, American Airlines announced a significant expansion of Starlink Wi-Fi across its fleet, and the broader airline sector is focusing on capacity and…
AAL
Undervalued
American Airlines Group Inc.
Price$12.76
Model IV$17.78
P/IV0.77
Discount 28%
Return to IV: +39.3%
Market implies -1.0%/yr
vs model +5.0% · below model
ACHR
Valuation N/A
Archer Aviation Inc.
Price$4.96
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +150.0%/yr
AER
Deeply undervalued
AerCap Holdings N.V.
Price$144.72
Model IV$439.45
P/IV0.34
Discount 67%
Return to IV: +203.7%
Market implies -7.1%/yr
vs model +10.4% · below model
AERO
Valuation N/A
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V.
Price$15.57
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
AIR
Fairly valued
AAR CORP
Price$100.43
Model IV$112.74
P/IV1.03
Discount 11%
Return to IV: +12.3%
Market implies -0.4%/yr
vs model +16.1% · below model
AIRT
Deeply undervalued
AIR T INC
Price$30.55
Model IV$57.10
P/IV0.51
Discount 47%
Return to IV: +86.9%
Market implies -5.5%/yr
vs model +8.0% · below model
AIRTP
Deeply undervalued
AIR T INC
Price$18.81
Model IV$57.10
P/IV0.33
Discount 67%
Return to IV: +203.6%
Market implies -13.8%/yr
vs model +8.0% · below model
ALGT
Fairly valued
Allegiant Travel CO
Price$76.43
Model IV$78.97
P/IV0.97
Discount 3%
Return to IV: +3.3%
Market implies +5.7%/yr
vs model +7.5% · in line
ALK
Deeply undervalued
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.
Price$39.36
Model IV$82.62
P/IV0.51
Discount 52%
Return to IV: +109.9%
Market implies -5.6%/yr
vs model +8.0% · below model
ASLE
Valuation N/A
AerSale Corp
Price$5.08
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +54.5%/yr
ASR
Deeply overvalued
SOUTHEAST AIRPORT GROUP
Price$231.75
Model IV$64.97
P/IV3.77
Premium +257%
Return to IV: -72.0%
Market implies +27.6%/yr
vs model +13.4% · above model
ATRO
Valuation N/A
ASTRONICS CORP
Price$64.22
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +23.7%/yr
BA
Valuation N/A
BOEING CO
Price$190.37
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +123.9%/yr
BKNG
Valuation N/A
Booking Holdings Inc.
Price$160.34
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr
CAAP
Deeply undervalued
CORPORACION AMERICA AIRPORTS S.A.
Price$24.54
Model IV$63.02
P/IV0.38
Discount 61%
Return to IV: +156.8%
Market implies -3.0%/yr
vs model +12.9% · below model
CAE
Fairly valued
CAE INC
Price$23.74
Model IV$26.29
P/IV0.93
Discount 10%
Return to IV: +10.7%
Market implies +7.8%/yr
vs model +11.6% · below model
CPA
Valuation N/A
Copa Holdings, S.A.
Price$134.23
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
DAL
Deeply overvalued
DELTA AIR LINES, INC.
Price$82.17
Model IV$56.61
P/IV1.48
Premium +45%
Return to IV: -31.1%
Market implies +11.7%/yr
vs model +8.0% · above model
EMBJ
Fairly valued
EMBRAER S.A.
Price$71.16
Model IV$68.60
P/IV1.12
Premium +4%
Return to IV: -3.6%
Market implies +7.8%/yr
vs model +9.0% · in line
EVTL
Valuation N/A
Vertical Aerospace Ltd.
Price$0.52
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +94.5%/yr
FDX
Overvalued
FEDEX CORP
Price$291.71
Model IV$225.39
P/IV1.27
Premium +29%
Return to IV: -22.7%
Market implies +7.2%/yr
vs model +4.3% · in line
FJET
Valuation N/A
Starfighters Space, Inc.
Price$1.60
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +50.0%/yr
vs model +6.0% · above model
FTAI
Deeply overvalued
FTAI Aviation Ltd.
Price$169.97
Model IV$129.16
P/IV2.02
Premium +32%
Return to IV: -24.0%
Market implies +9.9%/yr
vs model +50.0% · below model
FTAIM
Deeply undervalued
FTAI Aviation Ltd.
Price$26.73
Model IV$481.22
P/IV0.06
Discount 94%
Return to IV: +1,700.3%
Market implies -50.0%/yr
vs model +50.0% · below model
FTAIN
Valuation N/A
FTAIN
Price$24.99
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
GE
Deeply overvalued
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
Price$308.20
Model IV$102.37
P/IV3.02
Premium +201%
Return to IV: -66.8%
Market implies +21.0%/yr
vs model +6.9% · above model
GOGO
Valuation N/A
Gogo Inc.
Price$2.32
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr
vs model +22.2% · below model
HEI
Deeply overvalued
HEICO CORP
Price$298.28
Model IV$181.61
P/IV1.92
Premium +64%
Return to IV: -39.1%
Market implies +21.5%/yr
vs model +19.0% · in line
HOVRW
Valuation N/A
New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.
Price$0.27
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
JBLU
Undervalued
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP
Price$3.84
Model IV$4.60
P/IV1.19
Discount 17%
Return to IV: +19.8%
Market implies +3.7%/yr
vs model +8.0% · below model
LTM
Valuation N/A
LATAM AIRLINES GROUP S.A.
Price$50.25
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
LUV
Deeply overvalued
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO
Price$41.66
Model IV$21.36
P/IV1.92
Premium +95%
Return to IV: -48.7%
Market implies +16.1%/yr
vs model +8.0% · above model
OMAB
Valuation N/A
Central North Airport Group
Price$90.28
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +32.9%/yr
PAC
Valuation N/A
Pacific Airport Group
Price$201.50
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
RJET
Deeply undervalued
REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC.
Price$17.20
Model IV$41.57
P/IV0.49
Discount 59%
Return to IV: +141.7%
Market implies -8.1%/yr
vs model +8.0% · below model
RYAAY
Fairly valued
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
Price$54.24
Model IV$55.30
P/IV1.01
Discount 2%
Return to IV: +2.0%
Market implies +6.2%/yr
vs model +8.0% · in line
SABR
Deeply undervalued
Sabre Corp
Price$1.90
Model IV$11.10
P/IV0.16
Discount 83%
Return to IV: +484.4%
Market implies -32.0%/yr
vs model +13.2% · below model
SARO
Deeply overvalued
StandardAero, Inc.
Price$20.17
Model IV$12.32
P/IV2.32
Premium +64%
Return to IV: -38.9%
Market implies +15.8%/yr
vs model +11.2% · above model
SATS
Valuation N/A
SATS
Price$88.25
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
SKYW
Deeply undervalued
SKYWEST INC
Price$96.52
Model IV$202.31
P/IV0.49
Discount 52%
Return to IV: +109.6%
Market implies -4.9%/yr
vs model +7.4% · below model
TATT
Deeply overvalued
TAT TECHNOLOGIES LTD
Price$33.89
Model IV$18.75
P/IV2.31
Premium +81%
Return to IV: -44.7%
Market implies +11.6%/yr
vs model +22.9% · below model
TOUR
Valuation N/A
Tuniu Corp
Price$4.95
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +25.0%/yr
vs model +5.4% · above model
UAL
Overvalued
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Price$107.46
Model IV$85.74
P/IV1.34
Premium +25%
Return to IV: -20.2%
Market implies +10.2%/yr
vs model +8.0% · in line
ULCC
Valuation N/A
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
Price$5.86
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +72.4%/yr
vs model +8.0% · above model
VLO
Deeply overvalued
VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX
Price$433.75
Model IV$181.93
P/IV2.07
Premium +138%
Return to IV: -58.1%
Market implies +15.1%/yr
vs model +3.4% · above model
VLRS
Valuation N/A
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.B. de C.V.
Price$6.23
Model IV—
P/IV—
Limited data — see page
VSAT
Deeply overvalued
VIASAT INC
Price$72.01
Model IV$46.63
P/IV1.58
Premium +54%
Return to IV: -35.2%
Market implies +10.3%/yr
vs model +3.8% · above model
WLFC
Deeply undervalued
WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP
Price$40.88
Model IV$722.56
P/IV0.25
Discount 94%
Return to IV: +1,667.5%
Market implies -35.3%/yr
vs model +21.2% · below model
YTRA
Deeply undervalued
Yatra Online, Inc.
Price$0.91
Model IV$5.10
P/IV0.20
Discount 82%
Return to IV: +457.4%
Market implies -32.0%/yr
vs model +50.0% · below model
