← All themes

Theme

Airlines

Every analyzed stock in Airlines — 44 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Airlines risk

Near-term vs. long-term risk for this theme

⚡ Right now ?Near-term risk over roughly the next 3 months. Blends live market conditions (volatility, how far the S&P is from its highs, credit spreads, the yield curve, sentiment), how stretched valuations are, and what the smart money is doing. Higher = greater odds of a pullback. · next 0–3 months

55 /100 Elevated ▼ -3 slight

Long-term risk ?Long-term / structural risk — the market's underlying tide. Where valuations sit versus 145 years of history (Shiller CAPE) plus multi-year trends. A high reading means weak long-run return prospects even if the market feels calm right now. · structural · vs 145yr history

74 /100 High ◆ flat

▲ / ▼ = change vs ~7 days ago — red = risk rising, green = falling.

Inside the "right now" score — a 45 / 30 / 25 blend · 26 stocks valued

Conditions · 45% ?The live market weather: VIX (expected volatility), how far the S&P 500 is below its 52-week high, high-yield credit spreads, the 10-year vs 2-year yield curve, and the Fear & Greed index. Market-wide indices, not per-stock.

35 Moderate

Valuation · 30% ?How expensive stocks are versus our intrinsic-value models: the median price-to-value ratio and the share of stocks trading above what we think they are worth, across 26 stocks.

68 High

Smart money · 25% ?What informed money is doing: short-selling activity plus corporate insiders buying or selling their own stock. Broken out below.

64 High

Smart money — the three inputs

Short-selling ?Share of ALL US trading volume that is short sales (FINRA, ~12,000 symbols, market-wide). It normally sits near 45–50%, so readings above ~50% lean bearish and read as higher risk. Weighted 40% of Smart money.

59.5%

Extreme

Buyers' strike ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders bought NONE of their own stock on the open market in the last 12 months. The higher this runs, the more bearish (nobody's buying the dip in their own shares). Weighted 35%.

57%

Elevated

Net insider selling ?Share of the sampled companies whose insiders were net DISCRETIONARY sellers over 12 months (excludes scheduled 10b5-1 plans, which carry little signal). Around half is normal; well above that is bearish. Weighted 25%.

43%

Elevated

Black number = the raw figure; coloured bar & word = how it reads as risk. Insider inputs from 21 stocks (full universe); short-selling is market-wide.

Long-term risk: the long-term read runs high mainly because valuations sit near a historic extreme (Shiller CAPE) — a structural backdrop, not about this week.

Divergence: insiders are defensive while macro conditions (credit, curve, volatility) stay calm. Insiders are strong judges of their own companies but poor macro timers — historically this pattern favors selective stock-picking (see the opportunistic-buy signals) over exiting the market wholesale.

Scale (0–100): 0–20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 High · 80–100 Extreme. "Right now" reads today's conditions; the "long-term" score is anchored to ~145 years of valuation history.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest

This week in Airlines

Airlines — Sep 7 – Sep 11, 2026 (Wk 37): Airlines Face Fuel Headwinds, Mixed Analyst Views, and Volatility in W37 →

This week, major US airlines faced concerns about third-quarter earnings due to rising fuel costs. Analyst sentiment was mixed, with some downgrades and some backing, while options traders priced in higher volatility for American Airlines. The…

American Airlines Group Inc.

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 43 · Elevated

Discount 40% Return to IV: +67.3%

Market implies -1.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

AerCap Holdings N.V.

Deeply undervalued

Technology Risk 44 · Elevated

Model IV$744.46

Discount 81% Return to IV: +434.0%

Market implies -13.6%/yr vs model +12.7% · below model

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Industrials Risk 36 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +55% Return to IV: -35.6%

Market implies +9.2%/yr vs model +13.9% · below model

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 42 · Elevated

Model IV$115.50

Discount 73% Return to IV: +276.3%

Market implies -12.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 34 · Moderate

Model IV$115.50

Discount 84% Return to IV: +514.8%

Market implies -20.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.

Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated

Discount 9% Return to IV: +9.3%

Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +125% Return to IV: -55.6%

Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model

SOUTHEAST AIRPORT GROUP

Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 69 · High

Premium +315% Return to IV: -75.9%

Market implies +32.2%/yr vs model +14.4% · above model

Industrials Risk 46 · Elevated

Market implies +51.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Booking Holdings Inc.

Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +23.4% · below model

CORPORACION AMERICA AIRPORTS S.A.

Industrials Risk 37 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Technology Risk 32 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Copa Holdings, S.A.

Industrials Risk 36 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

Industrials Risk 31 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

DELTA AIR LINES, INC.

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 59 · Elevated

Premium +69% Return to IV: -41.0%

Market implies +14.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated

Model IV$199.54

Premium +56% Return to IV: -36.0%

Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model

Starfighters Space, Inc.

Industrials Risk 46 · Elevated

Market implies +53.3%/yr vs model +6.0% · above model

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Deeply overvalued

Technology Risk 73 · High

Model IV$129.16

Premium +44% Return to IV: -30.6%

Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Deeply undervalued

Technology Risk 52 · Elevated

Model IV$481.22

Discount 94% Return to IV: +1,665.9%

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Deeply undervalued

Technology Risk 45 · Elevated

Model IV$481.22

Discount 95% Return to IV: +1,825.6%

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO

Deeply overvalued

Technology Risk 53 · Elevated

Premium +298% Return to IV: -74.9%

Market implies +22.7%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model

Communication Services Risk 66 · High

Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +22.2% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 60 · High

Model IV$181.61

Premium +74% Return to IV: -42.5%

Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +19.0% · above model

JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP

Industrials Risk 47 · Elevated

Discount 4% Return to IV: +4.5%

Market implies +5.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line

LATAM AIRLINES GROUP S.A.

Industrials Risk 27 · Moderate

Limited data — see page

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 61 · High

Premium +69% Return to IV: -40.8%

Market implies +14.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Central North Airport Group

Limited data — see page

Pacific Airport Group

Limited data — see page

REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC.

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 40 · Elevated

Discount 58% Return to IV: +135.9%

Market implies -7.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated

Model IV$136.06

Premium +44% Return to IV: -30.3%

Market implies +10.8%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model

RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC

Industrials Risk 59 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Deeply undervalued

Technology Risk 33 · Moderate

Discount 80% Return to IV: +411.7%

Market implies -28.9%/yr vs model +13.2% · below model

StandardAero, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated

Premium +95% Return to IV: -48.8%

Market implies +18.3%/yr vs model +11.2% · above model

Risk 55 · Elevated

Limited data — see page

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 36 · Moderate

Model IV$195.97

Discount 51% Return to IV: +103.8%

Market implies -4.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model

TAT TECHNOLOGIES LTD

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 63 · High

Premium +105% Return to IV: -51.3%

Market implies +13.5%/yr vs model +22.9% · below model

Industrials Risk 43 · Elevated

Market implies +48.6%/yr vs model +5.4% · above model

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Deeply overvalued

Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated

Premium +28% Return to IV: -21.9%

Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

Industrials Risk 31 · Moderate

Market implies +71.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.B. de C.V.

Limited data — see page

Deeply undervalued

Communication Services Risk 36 · Moderate

Model IV$113.66

Discount 35% Return to IV: +53.0%

Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +19.1% · below model

WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP

Deeply undervalued

Industrials Risk 46 · Elevated

Model IV$722.56

Discount 92% Return to IV: +1,186.4%

Market implies -27.6%/yr vs model +21.2% · below model