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Verdict

Undervalued

Every analyzed stock in Undervalued — 250 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Undervalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Undervalued" here means IRR 5–10 points over Treasuries on a believable coupon (yield ≤ 25%) (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR 5–10 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −1.3 pts (228 entries, 126 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 39% of entries beat the S&P; 18% beat it by 30 points or more; 38% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −3.0 pts.
−1.3 ptsvs S&P, average
39%beat the S&P
18%up 30+ pts vs S&P
38%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+2.2 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−24.8 pts 2023worst year to buy ?
-0.4luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +0.3 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.7 pts 37% beat12 mo: −1.3 pts 40% beat24 mo: −0.4 pts 35% beat3 yr, per yr: −8.8 pts 26% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today196−3.2 pts t -1.0+2.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)32+10.6 pts t 0.9+2.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing102−4.5 pts t -1.0−11.5 pts
Services37+11.0 pts t 1.2−1.5 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2019: −1.4 pts (n 107, t -0.4). From 2019: −1.1 pts (n 121, t -0.2). Same sign in both halves.

Year20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+9 pts−30 pts−10 pts−3 pts+10 pts+5 pts−1 pts−12 pts+33 pts+9 pts−11 pts−25 pts−8 pts+5 pts
n14212718191720171816151817

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

CERT
Certara, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield6.3%
Growth used10.6%
10-yr IRR15.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.86
Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +10.6% · in line
OMCL
OMNICELL, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 67 · High
Yield8.3%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR14.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.79
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
NVGS
Navigator Holdings Ltd.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield6.6%
Growth used9.6%
10-yr IRR14.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.52
Market implies -0.9%/yr vs model +9.6% · below model
FDP
FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC
Rich — check why
Basic Materials Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield9.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR14.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.69
Market implies -3.0%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
SD
SANDRIDGE ENERGY INC
Rich — check why
Energy Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield10.8%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR14.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.54
Market implies -12.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
MOMO
Hello Group Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield10.4%
Growth used0.4%
10-yr IRR14.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.49
Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +0.4% · above model
OLPX
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 63 · High
Yield9.1%
Growth used2.9%
10-yr IRR14.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.69
Market implies +8.4%/yr vs model +2.9% · above model
OPTU
Optimum Communications, Inc.
Rich — check why
Communication Services Risk 72 · High
Yield10.6%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR14.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · below model
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield9.0%
Growth used3.1%
10-yr IRR14.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.66
Market implies -2.0%/yr vs model +3.1% · below model
USPH
U S PHYSICAL THERAPY INC /NV
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield5.6%
Growth used11.5%
10-yr IRR13.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +7.6%/yr vs model +11.5% · below model
HSTM
HEALTHSTREAM INC
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield6.8%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR13.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.63
Market implies +1.4%/yr vs model +7.8% · below model
DSP
Viant Technology Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield5.4%
Growth used11.5%
10-yr IRR13.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.50
Market implies +20.9%/yr vs model +11.5% · above model
SMP
STANDARD MOTOR PRODUCTS, INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield6.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR13.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.02
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
LMB
Limbach Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 63 · High
Yield6.9%
Growth used6.8%
10-yr IRR13.3%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.89
Market implies +7.6%/yr vs model +6.8% · in line
CBRL
CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield6.6%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR13.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.04
Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
APT
ALPHA PRO TECH LTD
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield6.7%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR13.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.81
Market implies -0.1%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
UTMD
UTAH MEDICAL PRODUCTS INC
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield7.5%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR13.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.77
Market implies -0.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · below model
PAYS
Paysign, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 26 · Moderate
Yield4.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR12.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.41
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +24.0% · below model
SLP
Simulations Plus, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield4.6%
Growth used13.6%
10-yr IRR12.8%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.59
Market implies +17.2%/yr vs model +13.6% · above model
ITRN
Ituran Location & Control Ltd.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield6.2%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR12.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.17
Market implies +4.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
WLDN
Willdan Group, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 63 · High
Yield4.4%
Growth used14.3%
10-yr IRR12.6%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.58
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +14.3% · in line
HERE
Here Group Ltd
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 49 · Elevated
Yield10.2%
Growth used-1.4%
10-yr IRR12.6%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.47
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model -1.4% · above model
WS
Worthington Steel, Inc.
Rich — check why
Basic Materials Risk 65 · High
Yield9.5%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR12.6%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.19
Market implies +7.0%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
EEX
Emerald Holding, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield4.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR12.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.81
Market implies +15.1%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
ESP
ESPEY MFG & ELECTRONICS CORP
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield4.9%
Growth used12.0%
10-yr IRR12.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.43
Market implies -2.7%/yr vs model +12.0% · below model
OIS
OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL, INC
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield7.1%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR12.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.51
Market implies -5.6%/yr vs model +5.2% · below model
AXR
AMREP CORP.
Rich — check why
Real Estate Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield7.1%
Growth used5.1%
10-yr IRR12.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.15
Market implies +2.8%/yr vs model +5.1% · in line
VEL
Velocity Financial, Inc.
Rich — check why
Financial Services Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield4.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR12.3%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.63
Market implies +11.7%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
IHRT
iHeartMedia, Inc.
Rich — check why
Communication Services Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield7.5%
Growth used3.9%
10-yr IRR12.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies -12.9%/yr vs model +3.9% · below model
BLBD
Blue Bird Corp
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield5.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.45
Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
PBYI
PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC.
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield7.8%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.72
Market implies +0.4%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORP
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield6.8%
Growth used5.1%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +28.1%/yr vs model +5.1% · above model
NSP
INSPERITY, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield5.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.36
Market implies -3.6%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
ECVT
Ecovyst Inc.
Rich — check why
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Yield7.0%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.29
Market implies +2.4%/yr vs model +4.5% · in line
CAPL
CrossAmerica Partners LP
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield7.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.68
Market implies -2.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
UG
UNITED GUARDIAN INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield8.0%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.11
Market implies -0.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
LQDT
LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.97
Market implies +14.0%/yr vs model +17.2% · below model
DSGR
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 31 · Moderate
Yield3.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.63
Market implies +15.1%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
XZO
Exzeo Group, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield3.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.55
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
TNC
TENNANT CO
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 63 · High
Yield7.3%
Growth used3.5%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.48
Market implies +15.9%/yr vs model +3.5% · above model
IZM
ICZOOM Group Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield11.6%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies -42.2%/yr vs model -7.2% · below model
AIN
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP /DE/
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield5.3%
Growth used9.1%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.73
Market implies +13.1%/yr vs model +9.1% · above model
HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
Rich — check why
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield7.3%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR11.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +26.4%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
HOFT
HOOKER FURNISHINGS Corp
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield11.5%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR11.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.30
Market implies -4.8%/yr vs model -6.7% · in line
INTT
INTEST CORP
Rich — check why
Healthcare Risk 70 · High
Yield5.5%
Growth used8.3%
10-yr IRR11.3%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.64
Market implies +17.1%/yr vs model +8.3% · above model
MITK
MITEK SYSTEMS INC
Rich — check why
Technology Risk 61 · High
Yield4.7%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.05
Market implies +18.1%/yr vs model +11.1% · above model
ARHS
Arhaus, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Yield4.3%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.28
Market implies +13.8%/yr vs model +12.7% · in line
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield6.4%
Growth used5.3%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.88
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +5.3% · above model
LNN
LINDSAY CORP
Equity-like
Industrials Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield6.6%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR10.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +0.9%/yr vs model +4.5% · below model
TBRG
TruBridge, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield5.6%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +7.4% · in line
TAYD
TAYLOR DEVICES, INC.
Equity-like
Industrials Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield3.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.8%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.91
Market implies +12.0%/yr vs model +17.6% · below model
FLXS
FLEXSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield5.7%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR10.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.80
Market implies +6.6%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line
BZUN
Baozun Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield5.7%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR10.6%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.85
Market implies +3.3%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
TWIN
TWIN DISC INC
Equity-like
Industrials Risk 66 · High
Yield4.8%
Growth used10.0%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.63
Market implies +17.8%/yr vs model +10.0% · above model
LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield5.4%
Growth used7.7%
10-yr IRR10.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +7.7% · in line
BV
BrightView Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Basic Materials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield6.9%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR10.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.55
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
DAKT
DAKTRONICS INC /SD/
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield4.5%
Growth used10.8%
10-yr IRR10.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.87
Market implies +3.5%/yr vs model +10.8% · below model
TILE
INTERFACE INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield5.8%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR10.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.14
Market implies +7.7%/yr vs model +5.9% · in line
DFIN
Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield6.7%
Growth used3.2%
10-yr IRR10.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.17
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +3.2% · above model
STRA
Strategic Education, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield6.3%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR10.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies -3.1%/yr vs model +4.3% · below model