FindingSAVNG Research · September 10, 2026

Dividend yield: a modest, real edge — until it gets extreme

The claim. If you had bought the fifth of companies that scored best on dividend yield at each annual report, 2010 to 2025, and held for a year, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by +4.3 pts on average (very unlikely to be luck) and the worst-scoring fifth by +6.7 pts; against small caps the gap was +6.1 pts. Bought during a sell-off the best fifth returned +2.7 pts (117 cases). Measured on 5,001 company-years across 427 companies.

Ranking payers by their declared yield at each annual report, higher yield beat lower yield over the next year. Above roughly 8% the market is usually right that the dividend is at risk.

How we tested it
  • Universe: 657 U.S. companies with ten-plus years of prices (8,703 company-years). Payers only (yield above 0 and under 25%). Financials included. Highest yield = top fifth.
  • Point in time: factor values from the latest fiscal year known on each 10-K filing date; price = first close on or after the filing.
  • Outcome: total return over the next 12 and 36 months minus the S&P 500, and minus small caps (IWM) for 12 months; companies ranked into fifths within each filing year; market state = S&P ≥10% below its one-year high on the entry day.
  • Limits: survivorship-tilted, small-cap-heavy universe; no costs; the spread between fifths is the finding, the levels are not.
Reproduce: node savng-insider-history/factor-study.js → reports/factor-study.json (generated 2026-09-11); served at /screener-evidence; any filter combination live at /backtest.
The picture
Q1 (best by this factor)+4.3 pts n 1,007 · median +0.2 ptsQ2−1.2 pts n 1,000 · median −2.9 ptsQ3−1.4 pts n 1,000 · median −4.1 ptsQ4−0.3 pts n 1,000 · median −2.9 ptsQ5 (worst)−2.4 pts n 994 · median −5.3 pts

Average twelve-month return minus the S&P 500 by fifth, best-scoring first. Medians in grey.

The strict rule
BucketCompany-yearsAverage vs S&PMedian% beatt
Yield 4–8%681+2.8 pts−0.5 pts49%2.0
Yield ≥ 8%165+13.6 pts+2.4 pts54%2.4
Sell-offs versus calm markets
Market state at entryBest fifthWorst fifthSpread
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)+2.7 pts n 117+4.1 pts−1.3 pts
Calm+4.5 pts n 890−3.2 pts+7.7 pts
Does it apply to your sector?
Sector (SEC group)Company-yearsBest fifth, 12 moWorst fifthSpreadRead
Industrials & manufacturing1,690+10.1 pts n 219−4.6 pts+14.7 ptsSorts well
Retail & consumer409+9.6 pts n 88−2.3 pts+11.9 ptsSorts well
Services357−1.6 pts n 30−6.0 pts+4.4 ptsSorts weakly
Energy355+7.4 pts n 111−19.4 pts+26.7 ptsSorts well
Utilities319+1.3 pts n 117−1.2 pts+2.5 ptsSorts weakly
Tech hardware & semis318+0.1 pts n 85+5.0 pts−4.9 ptsDoes not sort
Other290+7.4 pts n 51+8.2 pts−0.7 ptsDoes not sort
Finance & real estate247−0.2 pts n 86+1.0 pts−1.2 ptsDoes not sort
Transport & logistics120+2.6 pts n 7−5.2 pts+7.8 ptsToo few to say
Where it applies today
Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

The same screen, live — every filter re-tested as you change it

Screen tested: Dividend yield 2.0–12.0% at the filing date · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +0.9 pts (2,386 entries, 334 companies, could be luck). 47% of entries beat the S&P; 13% beat it by 30 points or more; 23% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.8 pts.
+0.9 ptsvs S&P, average
47%beat the S&P
13%up 30+ pts vs S&P
23%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+3.1 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−19.8 pts 2023worst year to buy ?
1.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +0.0 pts 49% beat6 mo: −0.8 pts 47% beat12 mo: +0.9 pts 47% beat24 mo: −0.6 pts 42% beat3 yr, per yr: −3.5 pts 36% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,097+1.4 pts t 1.7+3.9 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)289−2.8 pts t -1.0−2.1 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing704+1.7 pts t 1.2−4.4 pts
Utilities262−2.5 pts t -1.8−3.1 pts
Energy217+1.8 pts t 0.5−6.6 pts
Retail & consumer179+2.9 pts t 0.9−0.7 pts
Tech hardware & semis171−0.4 pts t -0.1−3.1 pts
Finance & real estate144+2.4 pts t 0.9+1.8 pts
Other132+1.9 pts t 0.6−3.1 pts
Services106−0.5 pts t -0.2+0.1 pts
REITs71−5.0 pts t -1.7−12.2 pts
Biotech & pharma68+9.2 pts t 0.9−2.6 pts
Food, drink & tobacco68−5.6 pts t -2.0−6.3 pts
Banks56−2.4 pts t -0.8−9.6 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2017: +3.6 pts (n 979, t 3.5). From 2017: −1.0 pts (n 1,407, t -0.9). Flips sign between halves — treat as noise.

Year20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+18 pts+7 pts+2 pts+7 pts+1 pts−2 pts+1 pts+11 pts+2 pts+1 pts−10 pts+10 pts+7 pts+4 pts−20 pts−7 pts+3 pts
n448103151175155158185156149157182138136162172155

Read the research behind this screen: Dividend yield: a modest, real edge — until it gets extreme → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Yield from the fiscal year's declared dividends per share ÷ price on the 10-K filing date. Financials included. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Open the screen with today's names →Test your own combination
Where it does not apply
Yields above 8% are a distress signal more often than an income opportunity; the very-high bucket shows it.

SAVNG is an educational research publication, not a Registered Investment Adviser. Everything here is general-circulation information produced by an automated pipeline — the same for every reader — and is not personalized investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any performance figure is hypothetical; past performance does not predict future results. Details.

Published by SAVNG Research. Every figure on this page is read from the study data at render time; if the study changes, the page changes with it.

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