GREIF, INC (GEF) Stock Analysis
GREIF, INC
▾ What's in the 47/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read GEF (cyclical commodity producer)
A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.
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EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
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Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Standard DCF doesn't fit GEF well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The EV/Sales Peer Comparison below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value metal shipping barrels. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: the result is dominated by where we are in the commodity cycle rather than by durable business economics.
For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $840.0M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $58.6M (was $356.0M the prior year).
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✗ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $58.6M vs net income $840.0M.Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 14.6% vs 4.0% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 15.9% of assets vs 41.1% a year ago ($919.4M of $5,766.8M assets).
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✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 1.27x vs 1.53x a year ago.Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✓ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 22.2% vs 20.6% a year ago.
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✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.68x vs 0.66x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Greif due to its cyclical nature and negative historical FCFFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → growth (-8.5%). While the company is profitable and generates positive operating cash flow, its revenue is declining, making a simple growth projection unreliable. Investors are likely focused on the company's ability to manage its debt, which is falling, and its expanding gross margins, indicating operational efficiency. The #1 quantifiable risk is the persistent revenue decline of -14.8% per year over the last three years.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Stabilization or reversal of revenue decline
- Continued expansion of gross margins
- Further reduction in long-term debt
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Gross margin improved to 22% (+2 pts).
- Net income grew +213% to $840.0M.
- Revenue fell -10% to $3.93B.
- Free cash flow fell to $28.4M.
Management & Leadership
Greif, Inc. is led by CEO Ole Rosgaard, who assumed the role in 2022. The company's leadership focuses on operational efficiency and strategic portfolio management within the industrial packaging sector.
What They Make
Greif, Inc. manufactures and sells industrial packaging products, including steel drums, plastic drums, fiber drums, intermediate bulk containers, and containerboard. Its customers are primarily industrial and commercial businesses requiring packaging for various goods.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing Greif based on its ability to sustain profitability and positive operating cash flow despite declining revenue. The expanding gross margin (20.2% to 22.2%) suggests operational improvements are being recognized, and the falling long-term debt indicates financial discipline. Investors are betting on the company's resilience in a cyclical industry and its capacity to generate cash even with revenue headwinds.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company has been reducing its long-term debt, which fell from $2185M to $919M, indicating a focus on deleveraging rather than significant dividends or buybacks.
Normalized FCF
Cyclical/commodity sector (Metal Shipping Barrels): normalized FCF uses 5-year median to smooth peak/trough distortions.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | -14.8% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | -47.1% |
| Sector Default | 6.0% |
| Best Estimate | -8.5% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue is declining at -14.8%/yr over 3 years, while net income has been positive for 4 out of 4 years.
Geography & Markets
Greif operates globally, serving customers across North America, Europe, and Asia, though specific geographic segment percentages are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)40.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (10 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (8)
- Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
- Median OCF: $396.00M, est. maintenance capex: $79.20M, normalized FCF: $316.80M.
- Historical FCF growth is negative (-8.5%) - likely reflects commodity cycle peak. Flooring at 0%.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From GREIF, INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9B | 840.0M | — |
| 2024 | 4.4B | 268.8M | — |
| 2023 | 4.2B | 359.2M | — |
| 2022 | 6.3B | 376.7M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.6M | — | 30.2M | 28.4M |
| 2024 | 356.0M | — | 16.6M | 339.4M |
| 2023 | 649.5M | — | 21.1M | 628.4M |
| 2022 | 657.5M | — | 34.4M | 623.1M |
| 2021 | 396.0M | — | 34.1M | 361.9M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 58.6M − — − 30.2M (SBC & adj.) = 28.4M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a mid-cycle estimate (median operating cash flow less estimated maintenance capex and stock compensation — by design NOT the table's FCF, which deducts every year's full capex), not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 5.8B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.9B (derived) |
| Equity | 2.9B |
| Total Debt | 919.4M |