Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Stock Analysis
Hercules Capital, Inc.
▾ What's in the 61/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read HTGC
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
HTGC's SEC filings give us limited machine-readable financials — common for some foreign or newly-listed filers that report under IFRS or file abbreviated statements. We can't run a full valuation on a partial dataset.
What to use instead: What we have parsed is shown below. As more complete filings arrive (or IFRS support lands), the valuation will populate.
How does HTGC stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to HTGC (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If HTGC is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRINI | Trinity Capital Inc. | Unknown | $2.3B | — | — | — | — |
| TRINZ | Trinity Capital Inc. | Unknown | $2.3B | — | — | — | — |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty Lending, In | Unknown | $1.7B | — | — | — | 23.7% |
| TRIN | Trinity Capital Inc. | Unknown | $1.5B | — | — | — | — |
| RWAYL | Runway Growth Finance Corp. | Unknown | $1.1B | — | — | — | 13.3% |
| RWAYI | Runway Growth Finance Corp. | Unknown | $1.0B | — | — | — | 13.6% |
| SCA | Stellus Capital Investment Corp | Unknown | $764M | — | — | — | — |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | Unknown | $714M | — | — | — | — |
A lender to private mid-market companies — not a bank
A BDC is a publicly-traded fund that lends money to private mid-market companies (typically $10M–$100M loans). They\'re structured like REITs — must distribute 90%+ of taxable income, so they pay big dividends. The right metrics are Price / Net Asset Value (P/NAV), dividend coverage, and the non-accrual rate (% of loans not paying interest). Standard bank metrics don\'t apply because BDCs don\'t take deposits.
- Non-accrual rate — % of loans not paying interest. Above 3% is yellow flag, above 5% is red. In the 10-K\'s "Schedule of Investments".
- Dividend coverage — Net Investment Income (NII) per share vs. distributions per share. Below 100% means they\'re paying out of capital.
- Leverage ratio — debt-to-equity. SEC caps BDCs at 2:1; most run 1.0-1.5×. Higher = more dividend but more risk.
- Originations vs repayments — Is the loan book growing or shrinking?
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
BDCs are lenders — their balance sheets are loan portfolios funded with leverage, exactly the structure Altman Z misreads as distress. Judge them on Net Asset Value, the leverage ratio (capped at 2:1) and non-accrual rate instead.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F's checks (operating cash flow, gross-margin trend, current ratio, asset turnover) assume an industrial cost structure, so they misread asset-heavy or financial businesses like this one — a healthy REIT, utility, pipeline, BDC/fund or holding company can score low for reasons that aren't weakness. See the sector lens above for the metrics that actually matter.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Hercules Capital, Inc. because the model implies no positive equity value and operating cash flow was negative in the latest period, despite being profitable. Investors are likely focused on the company's ability to generate future income from its venture debt investments. The market may be assigning value to the potential for successful exits or IPOs from its portfolio companies, which is not in the model. The number one quantifiable risk is the rising long-term debt, which has increased from $1236M to $2286M.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Trend in net interest income in upcoming quarters
- Changes in the value of its investment portfolio
- Operating cash flow turning positive
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Net income grew +29% to $339.7M.
- Free cash flow is negative at -$440.7M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
Management & Leadership
Manuel A. Henriquez is the founder, Chairman, and CEO of Hercules Capital, Inc., a position he has held since its inception. Seth B. Meyer serves as the Chief Financial Officer. The company specializes in providing financing to venture capital-backed companies.
What They Make
Hercules Capital, Inc. is a specialty finance company that provides venture debt financing to technology and life sciences companies. Its customers are primarily privately held, venture capital-backed companies seeking growth capital.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market's pricing for HTGC is likely driven by expectations for future interest income and potential capital gains from its portfolio companies, rather than current cash flow, as operating cash flow was negative in the latest period. The market may be assigning value to the potential for its portfolio companies to achieve significant milestones or successful exits, which is not in the model.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Hercules Capital typically pays a quarterly dividend, and it funds its investments primarily through debt and equity raises.
Growth / Revenue DCF
Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 15.0% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Net income has been positive in 5 out of the last 5 years, indicating consistent profitability.
Geography & Markets
Hercules Capital, Inc. is headquartered in the United States and primarily focuses on investments in U.S.-based technology and life sciences companies. Geographic mix data is not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)46.5NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
- INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Hercules Capital, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 339.7M | $1.85 |
| 2024 | — | 263.0M | $1.61 |
| 2023 | — | 337.5M | $2.31 |
| 2022 | — | 102.1M | $0.79 |
| 2021 | — | 174.2M | $1.49 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -425.8M | 89,000 | 14.8M | -440.7M |
| 2024 | -118.1M | 705,000 | 12.5M | -131.3M |
| 2023 | 68.3M | 887,000 | 11.9M | 55.5M |
| 2022 | -424.8M | 114,000 | 10.8M | -435.7M |
| 2021 | 128.6M | 106,000 | 10.4M | 118.1M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -425.8M − 89,000 − 14.8M (SBC & adj.) = -440.7M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 4.6B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.4B |
| Equity | 2.2B |
| Total Debt | 2.3B |
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