Outset Medical, Inc. (OM) Stock Analysis
Outset Medical, Inc.
▾ What's in the 48/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read OM (pre-profit growth)
This company is reinvesting instead of generating profit, so a standard DCF cannot price it. The useful question is whether the growth the market is paying for is achievable — and whether the company can fund itself until then.
-
1
Reverse-DCF — the growth the price demands ↓
It shows exactly how fast the business must grow to justify today's price. Compare that to what comparable companies have actually achieved.
-
2
Cash runway ↓
Can it reach profitability before it has to raise money and dilute shareholders?
-
3
Interactive calculator ↓
Set your own growth + margin assumptions and see what the business would be worth if you are right.
Standard DCF doesn't fit OM well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value medical devices. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
-
✗ Positive net incomeNet income -$81.7M in FY2025.Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
-
✗ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow -$46.3M (was -$116.3M the prior year).Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
-
✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow -$46.3M vs net income -$81.7M.
-
✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets -30.9% vs -46.4% a year ago.
-
✓ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 36.4% of assets vs 71.6% a year ago ($96.2M of $264.5M assets).
-
✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 6.67x vs 5.69x a year ago.
-
✗ Share count (dilution)Share count rose 339.2% (0.0M → 0.0M year-over-year).Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
-
✓ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 39.1% vs 33.9% a year ago.
-
✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.45x vs 0.41x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
Plain English: the company holds about $35M in cash and is burning roughly $46M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 9 mo before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.
Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Outset Medical, Inc. because the company has negative operating cash flow and has not been profitable in the last five years. Investors are likely betting on the company's ability to continue expanding its gross margin and achieve profitability as revenue grows. The primary quantifiable risk is the rising long-term debt amidst negative operating cash flow.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly revenue growth acceleration
- Improvement in operating cash flow
- Further expansion of gross margins
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +5% to $119.5M.
- Free cash flow is negative at -$62.7M — the cash burn narrowed vs last year.
- Gross margin improved to 39% (+5 pts).
- Still unprofitable at -$81.7M — loss narrowing.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
Leslie Trigg serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Outset Medical, Inc., a position she has held since 2015. She has been instrumental in guiding the company through its growth phase and public offering.
What They Make
Outset Medical, Inc. develops and manufactures Tablo, a hemodialysis system designed for use in both home and hospital settings, serving patients with kidney failure.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is pricing OM based on expectations for future revenue growth and continued gross margin expansion, rather than current cash flow, as indicated by its negative operating cash flow. The market may be assigning value to the potential for Tablo to significantly penetrate the home dialysis market, which is not in the model, and the possibility of future regulatory approvals expanding its use cases, which is also not in the model.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself primarily through equity raises and has seen its long-term debt rising, as it is not yet profitable or cash flow positive.
Growth / Revenue DCF
Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 3.9% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue is growing at 3.9% per year over four years, from $103M to $119M, and gross margin is expanding from 7.4% to 39.1%.
Geography & Markets
Outset Medical, Inc. is headquartered in the US and primarily operates within the United States market, focusing on domestic healthcare providers and patients. Exact geographic segment splits are not available in current filings.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)63.3NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (4)
- FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
- Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Outset Medical, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 119.5M | -81.7M | $-5.37 |
| 2024 | 113.7M | -128.0M | $-36.96 |
| 2023 | 130.4M | -172.8M | $-52.28 |
| 2022 | 115.4M | -163.0M | $-3.38 |
| 2021 | 102.6M | -131.9M | $-2.89 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -46.3M | 798,000 | 15.6M | -62.7M |
| 2024 | -116.3M | 912,000 | 29.4M | -146.6M |
| 2023 | -131.4M | 3.4M | 38.6M | -173.4M |
| 2022 | -145.7M | 8.3M | 27.2M | -181.3M |
| 2021 | -130.3M | 3.1M | 17.4M | -150.8M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -46.3M − 798,000 − 15.6M (SBC & adj.) = -62.7M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 264.5M |
| Total Liabilities | 137.5M |
| Equity | 127.0M |
| Total Debt | 96.2M |
Similar companies worth a look
Same sector and industry, similar fundamentals shape. Verify everything yourself — this list is computed mechanically and does not reflect our judgment about whether any of these are a good investment.