What does not workSAVNG Research · September 10, 2026
Insider buying does not tell you a company will survive
The claim. Of 353 companies that later failed, 84% had insiders buying beforehand, and insider buying showed up in filings before a failure at nearly the same rate as everywhere else (49% against 42%). Insider purchases say little about failure risk, which is why every stock page carries four separate distress checks.
What happened and what changed
- Test: every company in the Form 4 corpus that was later delisted for cause (bankruptcy, going-concern failure), matched to its insider record over its final twelve months.
- Result: 84% of the 353 failures had insider buying beforehand. Insider buying appeared in 49% of filings before a failure against 42% of all other filings: nearly the same rate, so it does not separate the companies that fail from the ones that do not.
- Consequence: four distress checks were added to every stock page, independent of insider activity.
Reproduce: node savng-insider-history/delisting-outcomes.js → reports/delisting-outcomes.md
Where it does not apply
Use the distress checks (cash runway, refinancing wall, going-concern language, covenant pressure) for survival. Use insider buying for timing, never for safety.
SAVNG is an educational research publication, not a Registered Investment Adviser. Everything here is general-circulation information produced by an automated pipeline — the same for every reader — and is not personalized investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any performance figure is hypothetical; past performance does not predict future results. Details.
Published by SAVNG Research. Every figure on this page is read from the study data at render time; if the study changes, the page changes with it.