CEMTREX INC (CETX) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 2 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

CEMTREX INC

CETX Industrials Specialty Construction📄 SEC filings ↗
Speculative
Long-term trend (200d) 91% below 200-day Risk 34/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 34/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 40/100 → +17.1
leverage 40/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 31/100 → +9.7
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 28/100 → +7.2
Total34/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $3.02 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 2 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read CETX (speculative micro-cap)

No model can pin a precise fair value on a company this small — but that does not mean there is nothing to learn. The useful questions are what the price is betting on, and whether the company can survive long enough to deliver it.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reverse-DCF — what growth the price assumes ↓
    The single most useful number here: it backs out the growth the market is paying for. If that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals.
  2. 2 Cash runway ↓
    A pre-profit micro-cap lives or dies on whether it can fund itself to profitability before running out of money and diluting you.
  3. 3 The raw financial statements + the 10-K ↓
    At this scale, the actual numbers, insider ownership, and share-count trend tell you more than any ratio.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit CETX well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value specialty construction. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why does CETX trade at $3.02?

CEMTREX INC has 132,396 shares outstanding. At $3.02 per share, the market values all outstanding CETX equity at $0 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because CETX carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values CETX in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
⚠️ BUSINESS-MODEL ADVISORY — SPECULATIVE NANO / MICRO-CAP

How to read a company this small

CETX is too small and/or too volatile for the valuation lenses we use on larger, more stable companies. The numbers shown below should be taken as rough orientation only.

✅ What actually drives value for this kind of company
  • Market cap $399,836 — nano-cap territory (below $50M)
❌ Metrics that DON'T apply (ignore these even if you see them below)

Growth percentages on tiny revenue bases (1000% going from $200K to $2M is not predictive). P/E and ROE swing wildly with small earnings changes. Peer comparisons fail because there often aren't comparable companies at this scale.

📚 Where to actually look

Start with the Reverse-DCF above — it backs out the growth the price is betting on; if that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals. Then the cash runway (can it fund itself to profitability before diluting you?). Then the raw Financials table and the 10-K on SEC EDGAR — at this scale, insider ownership and the share-count trend often matter more than any ratio.

Classified as Speculative Nano / Micro-cap (confidence 80%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.

FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
6 / 9
Mediocre
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$28.1M in the latest year.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $0.2M (was -$3.9M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $0.2M vs net income -$28.1M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -58.8% vs -16.4% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 28.3% of assets vs 40.8% a year ago ($13.5M now).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 1.22x vs 1.44x a year ago.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count declined 100.0% (27,240.0M → 0.1M year-over-year), so the no-dilution check passed. (This 1-year change differs from the ~4%/yr multi-year buyback CAGR the DCF cites.)
  • ✓ Pricing power (gross margin)
    Gross margin 42.2% vs 41.1% a year ago.
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 1.60x vs 1.52x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for CETX. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for CETX because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think CETX can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$3.02
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. See Reverse DCF and Football Field below.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Cemtrex, as indicated by its negative net income in the latest period and profitability in only 0/5 years. The model's implausibly high intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →     suggests a share-count or units error, making traditional valuation metrics unreliable. Investors are likely betting on continued revenue growth, which has been 15.4% annually, and the potential for future profitability. The primary quantifiable risk is the persistent negative net income, which indicates the company is not yet generating sustainable profits.

    ⚠️ FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.

    As of 2 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    CETX CEMTREX INC stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −36.8%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, CETX currently loses 36.8¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $3/share buys $577.72 of revenue per share per year, generates $212.34 lost per share per year, and $13.49 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow). Each share carries $102.06 of debt.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Operating cash flow must consistently remain positive and eventually translate into sustained net income profitability to validate the growth trajectory and justify further investment.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The persistent negative net income, profitable in only 0/5 years, implies that the company is not yet converting revenue growth into shareholder value, risking continued dilution or debt accumulation if this trend persists.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Consistent positive net income in future quarters
    • Continued expansion of gross margin above 42.2%
    • Further reduction in long-term debt
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +14% to $76.5M.
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$1.8M — the cash burn narrowed vs last year.
    • Gross margin improved to 42% (+1 pts).
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Still unprofitable at -$28.1M — loss widening.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Saagar Govil serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Cemtrex, Inc., having held these roles for over a decade. He is also the founder of the company. Aron Govil, his father, is the President and a Director.

    Saagar Govil
    Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
    Aron Govil
    President and Director
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Cemtrex is a technology company that provides a range of products and services, including industrial air pollution control equipment, monitoring instruments, and advanced electronics. Its customers are primarily industrial and commercial businesses.

    End Markets

    Industrial Air Pollution ControlAdvanced ElectronicsEnvironmental Monitoring

    Revenue Drivers

    Industrial Products & Services
    Electronics Manufacturing Services
    Environmental Control Systems
    Market Cap: 399,836Beta: 2.02
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Compliance with environmental regulations
    Improved operational efficiency
    Custom electronics manufacturing
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is likely pricing Cemtrex based on its revenue growth of 15.4% per year, rather than current profitability, as net income has been negative in the latest period. The market may be assigning value to the potential for future product development in its technology segments, which is not in the model, or the possibility of achieving consistent profitability as it scales. The positive operating cash flow in the latest period offers some reassurance regarding its ability to fund operations.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Sales of industrial air pollution control equipment
    Revenue from environmental monitoring and compliance services
    Manufacturing and assembly services for electronic products

    The company primarily funds itself through equity raises and operational cash flow, as it does not currently pay dividends or engage in significant share buybacks.

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    RevenueGrowth15.4%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Growth / re-investment phase

    Moat Signals

    Specialized industrial equipment expertise
    Regulatory compliance solutions
    Diversified technology offerings

    Revenue has been growing at 15.4% per year over the last four years, from $43M to $76M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Cemtrex is headquartered in the US, with operations and customers spanning North America, Europe, and Asia, though specific geographic revenue percentages are not available from current data.

    Geographic Risks

    Reliance on industrial sector capital expenditure cycles
    Competitive pressures in environmental technology and electronics manufacturing
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape bearish
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    25.6OversoldHeavily sold off recently — sometimes a bounce setup, sometimes a falling knife.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$9.33Price below (-67.6%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$35.31Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (4 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (4)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    • Extreme valuation: intrinsic value ($311.01) is implausibly HIGH vs price $4.30 (P/IV 0.0138x) — usually a share-count or units error. Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From CEMTREX INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    202576.5M-28.1M$-212.34
    202466.9M-7.2M—
    202359.4M-9.2M$-0.02
    202245.0M-13.0M$-18.35
    202143.1M-7.8M$0.02

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 159,315 1.9M 14,236 -1.8M
    2024 -3.9M 1.3M 30,235 -5.3M
    2023 -2.2M 2.8M 106,839 -5.1M
    2022 -16.1M 1.8M 155,505 -18.0M
    2021 -10.1M 1.1M 156,418 -11.3M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 159,315 − 1.9M − 14,236 (SBC & adj.) = -1.8M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets47.8M
    Total Liabilities39.1M
    Equity8.7M
    Total Debt13.5M
    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed June 11, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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