GENCOR INDUSTRIES INC (GENC) Stock Analysis
GENCOR INDUSTRIES INC
▾ What's in the 53/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read GENC
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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1
Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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2
Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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3
Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for GENC looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — GENC's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Riskier than 56% of the stocks we cover
A model trained on every US filing since 2012 — including the 823 companies that went bankrupt or stopped trading under a dollar — ranks each covered stock by its chance of failing in the next year. This is a position among peers, not a prediction about this company alone. Below is what happened to stocks that sat in the same position in past years.
▾ Every band, and what happened to the stocks in it
| Rank band | went bankrupt within 12 months | fell 80% or more (or failed) within 12 months | fell 50% or more (or failed) within 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| All covered stocks (average) | 0.59% | 4.21% | 8.51% |
| Manufacturing (sector average) | 0.36% | 2.56% | 5.85% |
| riskiest 1% | 16.4% of 1,749 | 33.0% of 1,998 | 45.5% of 2,239 |
| next 2% (97-99) | 5.9% of 3,360 | 24.9% of 3,985 | 38.2% of 4,461 |
| next 2% (95-97) | 3.4% of 3,409 | 21.2% of 3,984 | 33.8% of 4,462 |
| next 5% (90-95) | 1.6% of 8,443 | 15.1% of 9,965 | 27.3% of 11,155 |
| next 15% (75-90) | 0.8% of 25,328 | 8.5% of 29,884 | 17.8% of 33,459 |
| next 25% (50-75) ← this stock | 0.2% of 36,310 | 2.7% of 49,810 | 6.2% of 55,771 |
| safest half | <0.1% of 92,256 | 0.5% of 99,617 | 2.1% of 111,538 |
Counts are stock-quarters 2012–2025, scored each year by a model that had not seen that year. The rank is recomputed from each company's latest filing (this one: 2026-06-15); table generated 2026-09-17. Calibrated one-year odds for this stock alone: bankruptcy 0.1%, 80%+ fall 0.3%, 50%+ fall in six months 2.7% — treat these as rougher than the band counts; the model overstates the middle of the range.
What this is not. It is not a trade. We tested shorting these names and buying puts on them at real option prices (2010–2025): every version lost money, because the market already prices the distress and the survivors squeeze. A high rank is a reason to read the filings and to size a position for the chance of a total loss — not a reason to bet against the company. A low rank says the balance sheet and the market are calm; it says nothing about whether the price is sensible.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $15.7M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $3.1M (was $9.3M the prior year).
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✗ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $3.1M vs net income $15.7M.Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 7.0% vs 7.0% a year ago. Flat year-over-year — the point requires strict improvement, so it isn't awarded, but this is not deterioration.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $222.6M).
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✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 23.44x vs 18.19x a year ago.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✗ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 27.5% vs 27.7% a year ago.Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
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✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.52x vs 0.54x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → valuation is not meaningful for Gencor Industries due to its erratic free cash flowFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →, with the latest FCF/share being only 7% of EPSEPS — Earnings per share — net income divided by shares outstanding.
Why it matters: The basis for the P/E ratio. But "earnings" is an accountant's figure — easier to manipulate than cash flow.
Full explanation →. Investors are likely focused on the company's consistent revenue growth and positive operating cash flow, indicating a stable, albeit cyclical, business. The market is betting on continued operational efficiency and demand for its industrial products. The #1 quantifiable risk is the illiquidity discount of 25% applied, reflecting challenges in exiting positions.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →/share is only 7% of EPSEPS — Earnings per share — net income divided by shares outstanding.
Why it matters: The basis for the P/E ratio. But "earnings" is an accountant's figure — easier to manipulate than cash flow.
Full explanation → implies poor cash conversion, and if this continues, it could hinder future growth and shareholder value.
- Next quarter's operating cash flow performance
- Gross margin trend (currently expanding 21.3% to 27.5%)
- New equipment order announcements
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +2% to $115.4M.
- Net income grew +8% to $15.7M.
- Free cash flow fell to $1.1M.
Roughly flat: Gross margin held to 27% (0 pts).
Management & Leadership
Gencor Industries is led by its long-standing CEO, John C. Elliott, who has been instrumental in guiding the company's strategic direction for many years. The company maintains a lean executive structure focused on operational efficiency in the heavy machinery sector.
What They Make
Gencor Industries designs, manufactures, and sells machinery and equipment for the production of asphalt, concrete, and other highway construction materials. Its primary customers are contractors and governmental agencies involved in infrastructure projects.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market prices GENC based on its consistent revenue growth of 7.9%/yr over four years and its positive operating cash flow, which has been positive in 4 out of 5 years. Despite the difficulty in a standard DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → due to FCFFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → volatility, investors are likely valuing the company for its operational profitability and its role in essential infrastructure, rather than a specific cash flow trajectory.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company primarily funds itself through its positive operating cash flow, with no specific dividend or buyback rates provided in the flags, suggesting reinvestment into the business or maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Free Cash Flow DCF
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 7.9% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | -1.6% |
| Sector Default | 6.0% |
| Best Estimate | 7.3% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue is growing at 7.9%/yr over four years, from $85M to $115M, and net income has been positive in 4 out of 5 years.
Geography & Markets
Gencor Industries is headquartered in the US and primarily serves the North American market for heavy construction equipment. Specific geographic revenue mix is not available in current filings, but its focus aligns with US infrastructure spending.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)43.0NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (7 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- Latest FCF/share ($1105000) is only 7% of EPS ($15661000) - using 3yr avg FCF ($5668666.67/sh) to smooth temporary depression.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From GENCOR INDUSTRIES INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 115.4M | 15.7M | $1.07 |
| 2024 | 113.2M | 14.6M | $0.99 |
| 2023 | 105.1M | 14.7M | $1.00 |
| 2022 | 103.5M | -372,000 | $-0.03 |
| 2021 | 85.3M | 5.8M | $0.39 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1M | 2.0M | — | 1.1M |
| 2024 | 9.3M | 840,000 | — | 8.5M |
| 2023 | 10.2M | 2.7M | — | 7.5M |
| 2022 | -9.1M | 4.5M | — | -13.7M |
| 2021 | 3.8M | 2.7M | — | 1.2M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a trailing 3-year average, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 222.6M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.8M |
| Equity | 211.8M |
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