SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. (SWBI) Stock Analysis
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.
▾ What's in the 41/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read SWBI
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Our models couldn't converge on an intrinsic value for SWBI they trust, given its current filings. We show no number rather than a misleading one.
What to use instead: Use the Reverse-DCF, the peer multiples in the Football Field, and the financial statements below as your signal.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — SWBI's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $18.5M in FY2026.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $114.2M (was -$7.2M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $114.2M vs net income $18.5M.
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✓ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 3.6% vs 2.4% a year ago.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $512.8M).
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✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 3.20x vs 4.16x a year ago.Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
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✓ Share count (dilution)Share count held roughly flat (44,484.0M → 44,420.0M year-over-year).
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✓ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 26.9% vs 26.8% a year ago.
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✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 1.02x vs 0.85x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
What if you assume different inputs?
Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount RateDiscount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for SWBI. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.
Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.
A full intrinsic value isn't shown for SWBI because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. due to its erratic free cash flowFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →, with the latest FCF being 4.4x net income and the base metric being less than 0.5% of the price. Investors are likely focused on the company's ability to stabilize its revenue and improve gross margins, rather than current cash flow. The biggest risk to our assumptions is the continued revenue decline, which has fallen by 11.8% per year over the last four years.
As of 13 days ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → generation.
- Stabilization or growth in quarterly revenue figures
- Improvement in gross margin percentage
- Consistent positive operating cash flow
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2025 → FY2026, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +10% to $523.8M.
- Free cash flow turned positive at $82.1M.
- Net income grew +38% to $18.5M.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Roughly flat: Gross margin held to 27% (+0 pts).
Management & Leadership
Mark P. Smith serves as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., a role he has held since 2020. Barry M. Monheit is the Chairman of the Board. The leadership team focuses on the company's core firearms business.
What They Make
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms globally, including pistols, revolvers, and rifles. Their primary customers are distributors and retailers who then sell to individual consumers, law enforcement agencies, and military personnel.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing SWBI based on expectations for a stabilization or reversal of its declining revenue trend, which has fallen by 11.8% annually over four years. Given the compressing gross margins from 43.3% to 26.9%, investors are probably looking for signs of operational efficiency improvements and a return to consistent profitability in its core business.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Free Cash Flow DCF
Owner-earnings FCF DCF: positive free cash flow (operating cash flow − capex − stock-based comp) in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. FCF negative in 2/5 years.
▾ Exactly how the $— normalized FCF/share is computed
2026: 82.1M
2025: -36.4M
2024: 10.3M
Sum ÷ 3 = 18.7M average total FCF
÷ 44,933.0M current diluted shares = $0.00/share
We divide the multi-year total-FCF average by today's share count (not each year's own share count), so the buyback effect is captured once, via the current denominator.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | -11.8% |
| Eps Growth | -90.0% |
| Sector Default | 6.0% |
| Sector Default Source | Industrials sector default |
| Best Estimate | -6.4% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been declining by 11.8% per year over the last four years, from $864M to $524M.
Geography & Markets
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. primarily operates within the United States, which is its main market for firearms sales. While specific geographic segment percentages are not provided, its brand is widely recognized across North America.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)21.5OversoldHeavily sold off recently — sometimes a bounce setup, sometimes a falling knife.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- Latest FCF ($0.1B, net of stock-based compensation) is 4.4x net income ($0.0B) - using 3yr average FCF to reduce one-time inflation.
- Base metric ($0/sh) is <0.5% of price ($12) - FCF DCF output will be unreliable. Growth/revenue model would be more appropriate for this stock.
- Terminal growth set to 0% — the lowest of the applicable caps (binding: 80% of near-term growth (-6.4%)). We use one effective terminal rate everywhere on the page.
- Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
- Illiquidity discount 7% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Extreme valuation gap (P/IV withheld — see the note above): result may be dominated by model assumptions, share count issues, or sector-specific dynamics. Treat as low confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 523.8M | 18.5M | $0.41 |
| 2025 | 474.7M | 13.4M | $0.30 |
| 2024 | 535.8M | 41.4M | $0.89 |
| 2023 | 479.2M | 36.9M | $0.80 |
| 2022 | 864.1M | 194.5M | $4.08 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 114.2M | 23.7M | 8.4M | 82.1M |
| 2025 | -7.2M | 21.6M | 7.6M | -36.4M |
| 2024 | 106.7M | 90.8M | 5.7M | 10.3M |
| 2023 | 16.7M | 89.6M | 5.1M | -77.9M |
| 2022 | 137.8M | 24.0M | 4.5M | 109.3M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 114.2M − 23.7M − 8.4M (stock-based comp) = 82.1M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a trailing 3-year average, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 512.8M |
| Total Liabilities | 136.2M |
| Equity | 376.6M |
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