Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. (SYRE) Stock Analysis

Price updated yesterday · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.

SYRE Healthcare Pharmaceuticals📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 148% above 200-day Risk 31/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 31/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 45/100 → +14.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total31/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $90.95 · yesterday 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read SYRE (pre-profit growth)

This company is reinvesting instead of generating profit, so a standard DCF cannot price it. The useful question is whether the growth the market is paying for is achievable — and whether the company can fund itself until then.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reverse-DCF — the growth the price demands ↓
    It shows exactly how fast the business must grow to justify today's price. Compare that to what comparable companies have actually achieved.
  2. 2 Cash runway ↓
    Can it reach profitability before it has to raise money and dilute shareholders?
  3. 3 Interactive calculator ↓
    Set your own growth + margin assumptions and see what the business would be worth if you are right.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit SYRE well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value pharmaceuticals. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why does SYRE trade at $90.95?

Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. has 86.8 million shares outstanding. At $90.95 per share, the market values all outstanding SYRE equity at $7.9 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (SYRE carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values SYRE in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

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VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

$1$25$49$73$96Current price $90.95EV / Sales (p25→p75)$1.01$1.09
The current price sits ABOVE the high end of every method. The market is paying a premium to all of these lenses — it expects materially better growth or margins than the models assume.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry: Pharmaceuticals. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

🧬 BUSINESS-MODEL ADVISORY — CLINICAL-STAGE BIOTECH

How to read a company this small

This is a clinical-stage biotech with little or no revenue. Standard DCF requires future cash flows to discount — there's nothing to discount yet. The value is entirely in the drug pipeline and the probability that it works.

✅ What actually drives value for this kind of company
  • Drug pipeline — phase of each candidate (Phase I → II → III → FDA approval); each phase has historical success probabilities
  • Total Addressable Market (TAM) of the lead indication — bigger market = bigger payoff if approved
  • Cash runway — months of cash left at current burn rate before they need to raise more (and dilute shareholders)
  • Strategic partnerships — Big Pharma collaborations validate the science and bring milestone payments
  • Patent / exclusivity timeline — how long until generics if approved
  • Insider holdings + management track record — biotech execs with prior wins are a real signal
❌ Metrics that DON'T apply (ignore these even if you see them below)

P/E, P/B, EV/Sales, ROE — meaningless when there's no revenue or earnings. DCF outputs are nonsense.

📚 Where to actually look

ClinicalTrials.gov for trial status. The 10-K's "Pipeline" section. Recent press releases on Phase II/III readouts. Conferences like JPM Healthcare or ASCO.

Classified as Clinical-Stage Biotech (confidence 85%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does SYRE stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to SYRE (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If SYRE is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 6.5x / 8.9x / 9.8x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
$1.08
If SYRE traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $1.08.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $90.95. That's 8,334.4% MORE than the peer multiple suggests. The market is paying a big premium — SYRE looks expensive vs peers. Either the market thinks this stock deserves a premium (faster growth, better margins, brand moat), or it's overpriced.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
TGTX TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. Pharmaceuticals $5.8B 9.8x —49.1x 10.6%
XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. Pharmaceuticals $5.3B 705.4x —— 0.0%
RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd Pharmaceuticals $11.8B — —— —
SPRO Spero Therapeutics, Inc. Pharmaceuticals $12.4B 981.8x —1,957.0x 0.1%
TVTX Travere Therapeutics, Inc. Pharmaceuticals $4.4B 8.9x —— 4.6%
ERAS Erasca, Inc. Pharmaceuticals $4.0B — —— —
VKTX Viking Therapeutics, Inc. Pharmaceuticals $3.8B — —— —
CPRX CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. Pharmaceuticals $3.8B 6.5x —14.8x 4.6%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Not available for this filer

The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
4 passed · 3 failed · 2 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 4 of 7 measurable checks passed. 2 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 7, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$155.2M in FY2025.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$169.3M (was -$157.4M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✗ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$169.3M vs net income -$155.2M.
    Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -20.0% vs -34.2% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $777.8M).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 13.25x vs 11.26x a year ago.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count held roughly flat (86.8M → 86.8M year-over-year).
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • · Sales per asset (asset turnover) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

Cash Runway
6 mo
TIGHT — under a year; likely needs to raise capital soon

Plain English: the company holds about $86M in cash and is burning roughly $169M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 6 mo before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.

Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for SYRE. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for SYRE because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think SYRE can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$90.95
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Spyre Therapeutics because its net income and operating cash flow are currently negative, indicating a cash-burning growth stage. Valuing SYRE would require projecting future drug pipeline success and market penetration, which are highly speculative. Investors are likely betting on the potential of its drug pipeline. The #1 quantifiable risk is the continued negative operating cash flow, which could necessitate further dilutive equity raises.

    ⚠️ FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    SYRE Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    Revenue figure looks incomplete. Net income divided by the revenue we parsed gives a -38,238% margin, which no operating business earns — the revenue tag we read is almost certainly a fragment (a fee line or a single segment), not consolidated sales. We are not drawing the margin breakdown from it, and revenue-per-share on this page should be treated as unreliable until the filing's total-revenue tag resolves.
    Plain English: each share (at $91) represents revenue that isn't reported in machine-readable form for this filer (so no revenue-per-share figure here), $1.79 lost per share per year, and $2.38 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. The filing reports no interest-bearing debt — the 62.5M of total liabilities on the balance sheet are operating items (payables, leases, deferred taxes), not borrowings.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Still unprofitable at -$155.2M — loss narrowing.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$206.9M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. is led by CEO Cameron Heath, who assumed the role in 2023. The company focuses on developing novel therapeutics, with a leadership team experienced in biotech and drug development.

    Cameron Heath
    Chief Executive Officer
    Andy Schwab
    Chairman of the Board
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Spyre Therapeutics is a biotechnology company focused on developing novel antibody therapeutics for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and other inflammatory conditions. Its products are aimed at patients with chronic inflammatory diseases.

    End Markets

    Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD)Autoimmune DiseasesChronic Inflammatory Conditions

    Revenue Drivers

    Drug pipeline development
    Clinical trial success
    Regulatory approvals
    Market Cap: 7.9BBeta: 1.68
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Targeted treatment for inflammatory diseases
    Potential for improved patient outcomes
    Addressing unmet medical needs
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is pricing SYRE based on the potential future value of its drug pipeline, rather than current cash flows, as evidenced by its negative net income and operating cash flow. The market may be assigning value to the potential for successful clinical trials and regulatory approval of its novel therapeutics, which is not in the model. This optionality may or may not materialize, but it drives investor interest in early-stage biotech.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Drug pipeline development
    Clinical trial success
    Regulatory approvals

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth15.0%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Competitive analysis not yet available for this stock.
    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Geographic revenue mix not available from current data sources.
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape bullish
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    56.4NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$63.94Price above (+42.2%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$36.60Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (3)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • INVARIANT: weighted IV is non-positive. Model may not be appropriate.
    • Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025—-155.2M$-1.79
    2024—-208.0M$-2.40
    2023886,000-338.8M$13.76
    20222.3M-83.8M$-24.86
    202118.7M-65.8M$-25.02

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 -169.3M — 37.6M -206.9M
    2024 -157.4M — 44.8M -202.2M
    2023 -99.9M — 25.7M -125.6M
    2022 -80.1M 38,000 7.1M -87.3M
    2021 -53.7M 573,000 8.0M -62.3M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -169.3M − — − 37.6M (SBC & adj.) = -206.9M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets777.8M
    Total Liabilities62.5M
    Equity715.2M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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