Upland Software, Inc. (UPLD) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 2 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Upland Software, Inc.

UPLD Technology Software📄 SEC filings ↗
Deeply overvalued by model
Estimate is sensitive to cash-flow normalization, leverage and industry risk.
Price vs model IV Expensive (+65%) Long-term trend (200d) 213% above 200-day DCF applicability Medium Risk 44/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 44/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Valuation (price vs model IV) (30%) 10/100 → +3.0
Fundamental health (30%) 79/100 → +23.7
leverage 80/100 · FCF trend 90/100 · DCF applicability 55/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (22%) 55/100 → +12.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (18%) 30/100 → +5.4
Total44/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $4.72 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 2 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read UPLD

A profitable, cash-generating business — our discounted-cash-flow estimate is the primary lens, cross-checked against what growth the price implies and against peers.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 The verdict + intrinsic value (our DCF) ↓
    Our estimate of what a share is worth, versus today's price.
  2. 2 Reverse-DCF + the interactive calculator ↓
    See the growth the price assumes, then flex every assumption yourself to pressure-test it.
  3. 3 Football field + peers ↓
    A cross-check across methods and against comparable companies.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
⚖️
"Is it worth what it costs?"
The valuation trade. Our DCF, the growth the price implies, and a calculator you drive yourself.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.

Is now a good time to buy UPLD?

Macro: Neutral / mid-cycle

UPLD trades at $4.72 vs an estimated intrinsic value of $2.87 — a +64.7% premium to model IV. Today's price is consistent with UPLD's owner-earnings free cash flow per share declining about 20.0% per year over the next 5 years (the price-implied growth rate). Our DCF projects modeled growth of -0.5% per year based on history + sector defaults (analyst consensus estimates not yet integrated).
Note: this is a 5-year, per-share view. The Reverse-DCF section below asks the same question on a stricter 10-year free-cash-flow?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → basis — so its growth number is different, not contradictory.

▾ Exactly how this 5-year figure is computed
Starting FCF/share: $0.54 (TTM)
Current price: $4.72 (live)
Discount rate: 13.5%; terminal growth: 0.0%
Forecast: 5 years explicit growth, then a linear fade to terminal; end-of-period cash flows discounted to today
Growth path: the model's probability-weighted scenarios (conservative 40% / base 35% / optimistic 25%) — see the "Three Scenarios, Weighted" table below for the three IVs
Method: solve for the constant 5-year per-share growth rate that, run through this same structure, makes the intrinsic value equal today's price. (The 10-year figure below uses a flat 10-yr path instead — hence a different number.)

Margin of safety
None — price is above our value
Macro regime
Neutral / mid-cycle
No extreme readings in either direction. Stock selection matters more than macro positioning right now.

Not investment advice. The model can be wrong. Verify the assumptions in the sections below and consider consulting a licensed advisor for significant decisions.

ⓘ Why does UPLD trade at $4.72?

Upland Software, Inc. has 28.6 million shares outstanding. At $4.72 per share, the market values all outstanding UPLD equity at $135 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because UPLD carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values UPLD in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
VALUATION LENS — REVERSE DCF

What growth must the market believe? ?Reverse DCF — Instead of asking "what is this stock worth?", asks "what growth rate is the current market price already assuming?"
Why it matters: It crystallizes the bull thesis as a single number you can argue with. If the market expects 40% growth for 10 years and you do not believe that, the stock is overvalued.
Reference: 10–15% = sustainable for strong companies · 20–25% = exceptional · 30%+ = historically very rare

Traditional DCF asks "what is this stock worth?" Reverse DCF flips it: it treats today's price as correct and solves for the growth rate that justifies it. In plain terms — if our model is right about everything else, the company's cash flow would have to grow (or shrink) by this much every year for the next 10 years for today's price to make sense. If that required growth looks unrealistic, the price is stretched; if it looks easy to beat, the price may be cheap.

To justify today's $4.72 price, UPLD's free cash flow?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → must grow at:
+1.6%
10-year flat FCF growth implied by today's price
This is a different figure from the -20.0% in the verdict at the top: that one is the 5-year implied per-share growth on the model's scenario-weighted path, while this is a 10-year flat rate. Different horizon and shape, so a different number — not a contradiction. Both are solved at today's live price.
▾ Exactly how this 10-year figure is computed
Starting FCF/share: $0.54 (TTM)
Forecast length: 10 years, single flat growth rate (no fade)
Terminal growth after year 10: 2.5%
Discount rate: 13.5% (the rate the model used)
Price used: $4.72 — the live price shown on this page (not frozen)
Method: solve for the constant annual growth rate that makes the discounted 10-year FCF stream + terminal value equal today's price.
Very modest

Almost any healthy business should clear this bar. Likely undervalued unless something serious is wrong.

For reference: A low bar — most financially healthy companies clear this comfortably.

The market is pricing in flat-to-slightly-declining cash flow. That points to one of two things: the business is genuinely in decline (so a low price is fair), or the market is overreacting (a bargain). Revenue has been shrinking at -7.9%/yr over the last 4 years — one data point in that debate. The way to tell them apart is the financial-health trend: check leverage, the cash-flow trend and the measurable Piotroski checks below. Strong and improving health behind a "decline" price often signals opportunity; weak and deteriorating health usually means the market is right.
▾ How we computed this · Reality check thresholds · Assumptions
Inputs:
  • Starting FCF/share: $0.54 (TTM)
  • Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
    Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
    Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
    Full explanation →    : 13.5% — standard 8-12%; 9-10% matches S&P 500 historical return
  • Terminal Growth Rate?Terminal Growth Rate — The growth rate we assume the company holds forever, after the explicit 10-year forecast period ends.
    Why it matters: It anchors the long-tail value. Cannot mathematically exceed long-term GDP growth or the company eventually becomes larger than the global economy.
    Reference: 2–3% (matches long-term US GDP growth) · Above 4% is mathematically problematic
    Full explanation →    : 2.5% — matches long-term GDP growth
  • Forecast horizon: 10 years explicit + terminal perpetuity
Reality-check scale:
≤ 0%Priced for decline — likely undervalued OR dying business
5-12%Reasonable; sustainable for quality businesses
12-18%Demanding — strong execution required
18-25%Exceptional — few companies sustain for a decade
25-35%Heroic — historically very rare
35%+Borderline impossible at scale

Sustaining 30%+ cash-flow growth for a full decade at scale is exceedingly rare — the bar is brutally high.

Use the interactive calculator below to change the discount rate, growth and terminal-growth assumptions and watch the value move.

VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

If FCF grew -6%/yr → 8%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes -0.5%)$3$7EV / Sales (p25→p75)$23$114Our model's scenarios (cons→opt growth, weighted 40/35/25)$3$3Current: $4.72$2$32$61$90$120
Methods disagree: the price is BELOW 1 of 3 method ranges (EV / Sales (p25→p75)), while remaining inside the very wide If FCF grew -6%/yr → 8%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes -0.5%) band. That makes the read assumption-sensitive, not "fairly valued" — the verdict depends on which lens you trust.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry: Software. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does UPLD stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 6 same-industry companies most similar to UPLD (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If UPLD is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 0.9x / 1.8x / 5.7x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 6 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

What UPLD would be worth at the median peer's multiple
$6.73
If UPLD traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $6.73.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $4.72. That's 29.9% LESS than peer multiples imply — the stock looks cheap vs peers. Either an opportunity, or the market sees something wrong with this name that doesn't apply to peers.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GP EV/EBIT FCF Yield
YXT YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd Software $97M 2.4x — — 23.3%
SSTI SOUNDTHINKING, INC. Software $97M 0.9x 1.7x — 25.1%
ROC Rank One Computing Corp Software $96M 5.7x 7.3x — 13.3%
WCT Wellchange Holdings Co Ltd Software $74M 55.4x 130.0x — 2.0%
ZENA ZenaTech, Inc. Software $65M — — — —
SKIL Skillsoft Corp. Software $64M 1.2x — — 16.0%
QXL QUANTUM X LABS INC. Software ·fallback $65M — — — —
WFCF Where Food Comes From, Inc. Software ·fallback $59M 2.4x 6.2x 49.0x 2.4%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Bankruptcy + quality screens

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
0.75
Distress zone

Distress zone under the classic Altman thresholds — scores here have historically preceded a high rate of financial distress within ~2 years. This is a warning signal, not a direct bankruptcy probability, and its reliability varies by industry. Be very skeptical of any "cheap" valuation on this name.

The classic Z-score was calibrated on manufacturers. It is less reliable for asset-light or non-manufacturing businesses (broadcasters, media, software, services) and not applicable to banks, REITs, or insurers — for those the coefficients and the asset-turnover term distort the result. Read it as one screening input, not a verdict.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
5 / 9
Mediocre
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$38.9M in the latest year.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $25.8M (was $24.2M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $25.8M vs net income -$38.9M.
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -9.4% vs -21.3% a year ago.
  • ✗ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 56.2% of assets vs 54.2% a year ago ($232.4M now).
    Why this matters: Rising debt relative to assets means more risk and more cash going to interest instead of shareholders. Falling debt is a sign of strengthening.
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 0.80x vs 0.98x a year ago — below 1.0, a caution flag.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 3.0% (27.8M → 28.6M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • ✓ Pricing power (gross margin)
    Gross margin 74.8% vs 70.5% a year ago.
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.52x vs 0.52x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 13.5%, the figure our model used for UPLD. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $2.87. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.

Probability-weighted model IV
$2.87
It trades at
$4.72
Premium to model IV
+64.7%
Price is 65% above model IV — it looks overvalued. Change the assumptions below to see what would justify today's price.
We value this stock at two discount rates and report the range between them:
13.5% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's Beta?Beta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 1.63. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
14.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 13.5% — the beta-based rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)
Flat-path value at your assumptions (single growth path — not the probability-weighted scenario IV)
$2.87
vs today's $4.72
+64.7%

At the default assumptions the flat path lands near our published value of $2.87. Move any slider to recompute it with your own.

For comparison — the FCF growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think UPLD can grow FCF for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$4.72
    Model IV$2.87
    Premium to IV+64.7%
    DCF applicabilityMedium
    Implied Growth (5-yr)-20.0%
    Return to IV (3yr, annualized)-15.3%
    To justify $5, UPLD needs ~-20.0% annual growth for 5 years — vs the model's -0.5%.

    Upland Software, Inc. (UPLD) appears deeply undervalued by the model, trading at a 68.5% discount to its intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    . This discount likely reflects the market's concern over declining revenue, negative net income, and a current ratio below 1. The primary quantifiable risk is the -7.9% annual revenue decline over the past four years.

    ⚠️ Revenue declining

    As of 2 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    UPLD Upland Software, Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −17.9%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, UPLD currently loses 17.9¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $5/share buys $7.58 of revenue per share per year, generates $1.36 lost per share per year, and $0.54 of free cash flow per share. Each share carries $8.12 of debt.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, revenue must re-accelerate from the current -7.9%/yr decline, ideally turning positive to validate the model's higher implied growth.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is continued revenue decline and sustained negative net income, which would further erode shareholder value and strain liquidity given the current ratio below 1.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Next quarter's revenue growth rate
    • Improvement in net income profitability
    • Changes in the current ratio
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Free cash flow rose to $15.3M.
    • Gross margin improved to 75% (+4 pts).
    • Still unprofitable at -$38.9M — loss narrowing.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Revenue fell -21% to $216.9M.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Jack McDonald has served as the Chairman and CEO of Upland Software since co-founding the company in 2010. He has led the company through numerous acquisitions to build its portfolio of enterprise software solutions.

    Jack McDonald
    Chairman and CEO
    Mike Hill
    Chief Financial Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Upland Software provides cloud-based enterprise work management software, offering a suite of solutions for project management, marketing, and contact center operations to various businesses.

    End Markets

    Enterprise SoftwareProject ManagementCustomer Experience

    Revenue Drivers

    Software Subscriptions
    Professional Services
    Maintenance and Support
    Market Cap: 135.1MBeta: 1.63
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Streamlines project and portfolio management
    Enhances customer engagement and support
    Automates marketing and sales processes
    Intrinsic Value$2.87
    Premium to IV +64.7%
    Implied Growth (5-yr)-20.0% Market prices -20.0% growth. Model: -0.5%.
    Return to IV (3yr, annualized) -15.3%

    The market prices UPLD at a 68.5% discount to the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    , likely due to significant concerns about its financial health. These concerns are supported by declining revenue at -7.9% annually, negative net income for the latest period (profitable in 0/5 years), and a current ratio of 0.8, indicating current liabilities exceed liquid assets.

    Three Scenarios, Weighted
    ScenarioIVvs PriceWeight
    Conservative$2.51-46.8%40%
    Base$2.91-38.3%35%
    Optimistic$3.37-28.7%25%
    Weighted$2.87-39.3%100%
    ANCHORS

    What has to be true

    Today's price implies a material multi-year contraction in cash flow (implied growth ≈ -20.0%/yr) — so historical growth anchors don't apply here. The real question isn't "can it grow like Apple did" but "is the decline the market is pricing in real, or an overreaction?" The Financial Health trend and the Reverse-DCF above are the right lenses for that.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Subscription fees for cloud-based software
    Professional services for implementation and training
    Maintenance and support contracts

    The company is retiring 1.4% of its shares per year, boosting per-share growth, and has been reducing its long-term debt.

    Free Cash Flow DCF Medium

    Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. FCF negative in 2/5 years.

    In plain English: we estimate UPLD's value by projecting its owner-earnings free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure and stock-based compensation) into the future and converting it back to what it's worth today. We start from $0.54 per share, assume it grows -0.5% per year for about 5 years (then gradually fades), and discount everything at 13.5% — the yearly return a buyer should demand for this much risk. After that it's assumed to grow 0.0% per year forever (kept below long-run economic growth — the terminal rate fades from the near-term growth above, so a low near-term rate produces a low perpetual rate). A higher discount rate or slower growth means a lower value, and vice-versa — change any of these yourself in the calculator above.
    Owner-earnings FCF / share$0.54
    Growth (g₁) — 5yr-0.5%Source: blend(70% revenue cagr, 30% sector)+buyback(1.4%)= underlying business ~-1.9% + share-count shrink ~1.4%/yr from buybacks. The buyback part only materializes if repurchases continue, cash remains after debt service, and shares are bought at sensible prices.
    Discount Rate (r)13.5%
    Terminal Growth (gT)0.0%
    Show advanced inputs
    RevenueGrowth-8.0%
    HistoricalFcfGrowth-23.0%
    SectorDefault12.0%
    BestEstimate-2.0%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)+buyback(1.4%)
    GrowthBasistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project product, services and recurring/cloud lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Mature / low-growth

    Moat Signals

    Diverse portfolio of enterprise software solutions
    Recurring revenue from subscriptions
    Customer switching costs for integrated platforms

    Revenue has been declining at -7.9% per year over the last four years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Upland Software is headquartered in the US and serves a global customer base, though specific geographic revenue breakdowns are not available from current data sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Customer concentration risk (not specified, but common for enterprise software)
    Competition from larger, more diversified software providers
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bullish, tape neutral
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    60.0NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$0.71Price above (+564.8%)Price above its 50-day average = near-term uptrend.
    200-Day Average$1.51Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    HIGH Revenue declining
    Guardrail Notes (4)
    • Stock-based compensation equals 37% of pre-SBC free cash flow; FCF used here is net of SBC (a real shareholder-dilution cost), so it is lower than the headline GAAP cash-flow figure.
    • Per-share growth boosted by buybacks: the company is retiring 1.4% of its shares per year, which adds directly to per-share growth on top of business growth. Final per-share growth used by the model: -0.5%/yr.
    • Terminal growth (3%) capped to 0% (80% of near-term growth -0.5%, floored to 0%).
    • Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Upland Software, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2025216.9M-38.9M$-1.56
    2024274.8M-112.7M$-4.26
    2023297.9M-179.9M$-5.77
    2022317.3M-68.4M$-2.23
    2021302.0M-58.2M$-1.92

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 25.8M 1.4M 9.1M 15.3M
    2024 24.2M 882,000 15.3M 8.1M
    2023 49.9M 1.2M 22.9M 25.8M
    2022 30.0M 866,000 41.6M -12.5M
    2021 41.7M 1.1M 53.9M -13.3M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 25.8M − 1.4M − 9.1M (SBC & adj.) = 15.3M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets413.2M
    Total Liabilities332.5M
    Equity-48.4M
    Total Debt232.4M
    VIDEOS

    Recent video coverage

    Top recent YouTube videos by date. We don't endorse the channels — these are surfaced for context.

    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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