INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Stock Analysis

Price updated 4 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

INNOVATE Corp.

VATE Industrials Fabricated Metal📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 13% above 200-day Risk 43/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 43/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 22/100 → +9.4
leverage 20/100 · FCF trend 25/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 79/100 → +24.8
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total43/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $7.16 · 4 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read VATE (cyclical commodity producer)

A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
    How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
  2. 2 Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
    Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Foreign filer — financials appear to be reported in a non-U.S. currency

VATE looks like a foreign company (ADR) whose SEC filings are denominated in its home currency, while the share price is in U.S. dollars. Mixing the two would produce a meaningless dollar fair-value, so we suppress the single intrinsic-value number rather than show a wrong one.

What to use instead: the growth trends, margins and ratios below (which are currency-independent), the peer comparison, and the company's own filings. A currency-converted valuation is on our roadmap.

ⓘ Why a standard DCF doesn't settle this one — VATE is a cyclical commodity producer

Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: the result is dominated by where we are in the commodity cycle rather than by durable business economics.

For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.

ⓘ Why does VATE trade at $7.16?

INNOVATE Corp. has 13.2 million shares outstanding. At $7.16 per share, the market values all outstanding VATE equity at $95 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (VATE carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values VATE in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
PEER BASKET — LIMITED COMPARABLES

⚠ We found only 2 genuine same-industry (Fabricated Metal) comparables — fewer than the 4 we require for a reliable median. The 8 names in the table below therefore include 6 broader Industrials names marked fallback, whose business models and margins differ — which is why any median below is computed over that wider set, not over true comparables. So we do not derive a peer-implied share value here. Read the multiples as rough context only.

How does VATE stack up against its closest peers?

Ideally we compare VATE only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 1.3x / 3.4x / 5.4x
EV / Gross Profit?EV / Gross Profit — Enterprise value divided by gross profit — the multiple paid for what each dollar of sales contributes after direct costs.
Why it matters: More refined than EV/Sales for high-margin businesses (software, marketplaces) where gross margin is the real economic engine.
Reference: 8–15x for SaaS · 15–25x for hypergrowth software · >30x demanding
Full explanation →		 10.4x / 14.1x / 27.0x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
We're not showing a peer-implied price for VATE: with only 2 genuine same-industry comparables, a median built partly from broader-sector names would be misleading. Lean on the DCF above; use the multiples table only as loose context.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
IMSRW Terrestrial Energy Inc. /DE/ Fabricated Metal $181M — —— —
TPCS TECHPRECISION CORP Fabricated Metal $40M 1.2x 9.2x— 18.7%
TORO TORO CORP. Deep Sea Foreign Transport ·fallback $108M — —— —
WRAP WRAP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. Ordnance & Accessories, ·fallback $73M 15.6x 27.0x— —
SRFM SURF AIR MOBILITY INC. Air Courier ·fallback $124M 1.3x —— 26.5%
TRT TRIO-TECH INTERNATIONAL Special Industry Machinery ·fallback $129M 3.5x 14.1x508.7x 6.7%
UAVS AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. Aircraft ·fallback $69M 5.4x 10.4x— —
ZDAI DirectBooking Technology Co., Ltd. General Bldg Contractors - ·fallback $62M 3.3x 37.5x— 2.8%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Bankruptcy + quality screens

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
0.72
Distress zone

Distress zone under the classic Altman thresholds — scores here have historically preceded a high rate of financial distress within ~2 years. This is a warning signal, not a direct bankruptcy probability, and its reliability varies by industry. Be very skeptical of any "cheap" valuation on this name.

The classic Z-score was calibrated on manufacturers. It is less reliable for asset-light or non-manufacturing businesses (broadcasters, media, software, services) and not applicable to banks, REITs, or insurers — for those the coefficients and the asset-turnover term distort the result. Read it as one screening input, not a verdict.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
4 / 9
Weak
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$60.6M in FY2025.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $146.6M (was $9.1M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $146.6M vs net income -$60.6M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -6.4% vs -3.9% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $950.1M).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 0.44x vs 0.81x a year ago — below 1.0, a caution flag.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 23.6% (10.7M → 13.2M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • ✗ Pricing power (gross margin)
    Gross margin 16.0% vs 18.9% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 1.31x vs 1.24x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for VATE. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for VATE because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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—

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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think VATE can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$7.16
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) trades at a significant discount of 92.2% to the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    . This discount likely reflects the market's concerns over the company's declining revenue, negative net income in the latest period, and a current ratio significantly below 1. The primary quantifiable risk is the implied market decline rate of 20.0% compared to the model's 7.0% growth.

    ⚠️ Per-share growth boosted by buybacks: the company is retiring 4% of its shares per year, which adds directly to per-share growth on top of business growth. Final per-share growth used by the model: 7%/yr.

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    VATE INNOVATE Corp. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −4.9%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, VATE currently loses 4.9¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $7) represents $94.27 of revenue per share per year, $4.58 lost per share per year, and $10.85 of free cash flow per share from the latest fiscal year. The filing reports no interest-bearing debt — the 1.2B of total liabilities on the balance sheet are operating items (payables, leases, deferred taxes), not borrowings.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    For the stock to work, net income must turn consistently positive from its current unprofitable state, demonstrating the ability of its diversified portfolio to generate sustainable earnings.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest fundamental risk is the continued negative net income and a current ratio below 1, which implies ongoing operational losses and potential liquidity issues if not addressed.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Improvement in net income to positive territory
    • Increase in the current ratio above 1
    • Acceleration of revenue growth beyond 0.8%/yr
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +13% to $1.25B.
    • Free cash flow rose to $143.4M.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Gross margin shrank to 16% (-3 pts).
    • Still unprofitable at -$60.6M — loss widening.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    INNOVATE Corp. is led by Avram Glazer, who serves as the Executive Chairman. George W. Barrios is the CEO and President, having been appointed in 2020. The company has a history of strategic investments and operational management.

    Avram Glazer
    Executive Chairman
    George W. Barrios
    Chief Executive Officer and President
    WHAT

    What They Make

    INNOVATE Corp. is a diversified holding company that operates and invests in various businesses across multiple industries. Its portfolio companies serve a range of customers in sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, and consumer products.

    End Markets

    InfrastructureManufacturingConsumer Products

    Revenue Drivers

    Strategic investments
    Portfolio company operations
    Asset management
    Market Cap: 94.6MBeta: 0.82
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Diversified business exposure
    Operational expertise for portfolio companies
    Capital allocation for growth
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company reports its financials in its home currency while the shares trade here in dollars. Mixing the two produces a per-share value that looks real but isn't, so we hold the valuation rather than publish a number we can't stand behind. The reported figures below are the company's own.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market prices VATE at a 92.2% discount to the model's valuation, primarily due to deteriorating health signals. The company has been unprofitable in 0/5 years, with negative net income in the latest period, and its current ratio of 0.44 indicates current liabilities exceed liquid assets. Revenue has also been roughly flat at 0.8%/yr over four years, suggesting a lack of growth.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Revenue from portfolio company operations
    Investment gains from strategic holdings
    Management fees or services from subsidiaries

    The company is retiring 4% of its shares per year, which boosts per-share growth, and funds itself through a mix of operational cash flow and potentially other capital market activities.

    Free Cash Flow DCF

    Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth0.8%
    Historical Fcf Growth559.5%
    Sector Default6.0%
    Best Estimate3.0%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)+buyback(4%)
    Growth Basistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Mature compounder

    Moat Signals

    Diversified asset base
    Strategic investment capabilities
    Operational management experience

    Revenue has been roughly flat, growing at 0.8%/yr over the last four years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    INNOVATE Corp. is a US-headquartered company with a diversified portfolio that likely includes operations and investments across various regions, though specific geographic revenue mix data is not available from current sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Diversified portfolio risk (performance of multiple unrelated businesses)
    Liquidity risk (current ratio below 1)
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bullish, tape bullish - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    66.5NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$10.18Price below (-29.7%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$6.32Price aboveThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (2)
    • Per-share growth boosted by buybacks: the company is retiring 4% of its shares per year, which adds directly to per-share growth on top of business growth. Final per-share growth used by the model: 7%/yr.
    • Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From INNOVATE Corp.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    20251.2B-60.6M$-4.84
    20241.1B-34.6M$-3.08
    20231.4B-35.2M$-4.81
    20221.6B-35.9M$-0.53
    20211.2B-227.5M$-2.98

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 146.6M 500,000 2.7M 143.4M
    2024 9.1M 1.2M 3.4M 4.5M
    2023 26.5M 18.4M 2.2M 5.9M
    2022 -9.5M 20.7M 2.4M -32.6M
    2021 27.0M 24.1M 2.4M 500,000

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 146.6M − 500,000 − 2.7M (SBC & adj.) = 143.4M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets950.1M
    Total Liabilities1.2B
    Equity-240.1M
    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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