HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC (HOVNP) Stock Analysis

Price updated 4 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC

HOVNP Industrials Construction (Residential)📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 6% below 200-day Risk 49/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 49/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 62/100 → +26.6
leverage 40/100 · FCF trend 90/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 45/100 → +14.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total49/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $19.30 · 4 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read HOVNP

We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reported earnings & margins ↓
    What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
  2. 2 Balance sheet & book value ↓
    Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
  3. 3 Who's selling & betting against it ↓
    Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Foreign filer — financials appear to be reported in a non-U.S. currency

HOVNP looks like a foreign company (ADR) whose SEC filings are denominated in its home currency, while the share price is in U.S. dollars. Mixing the two would produce a meaningless dollar fair-value, so we suppress the single intrinsic-value number rather than show a wrong one.

What to use instead: the growth trends, margins and ratios below (which are currency-independent), the peer comparison, and the company's own filings. A currency-converted valuation is on our roadmap.

ⓘ Why does HOVNP trade at $19.30?

HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC has 6.9 million shares outstanding. At $19.30 per share, the market values all outstanding HOVNP equity at $133 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because HOVNP carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values HOVNP in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

$18$185$352$519$686Current price $19.30EV / Sales (p25→p75)$85.40$647
Every model's range sits above the current price, but that does not prove mispricing. The gap may reflect secular or cyclical pressures, leverage, or information not yet captured by the model. Review recent filings and test lower normalized cash-flow assumptions before relying on the valuation.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry: Construction (Residential). See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — LIMITED COMPARABLES

⚠ We found no genuine same-industry (Construction (Residential)) comparables at all — fewer than the 4 we require for a reliable median. The 8 names in the table below therefore include 8 broader Industrials names marked fallback, whose business models and margins differ — which is why any median below is computed over that wider set, not over true comparables. So we do not derive a peer-implied share value here. Read the multiples as rough context only.

How does HOVNP stack up against its closest peers?

Ideally we compare HOVNP only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 1.1x / 2.0x / 3.2x
EV / Gross Profit?EV / Gross Profit — Enterprise value divided by gross profit — the multiple paid for what each dollar of sales contributes after direct costs.
Why it matters: More refined than EV/Sales for high-margin businesses (software, marketplaces) where gross margin is the real economic engine.
Reference: 8–15x for SaaS · 15–25x for hypergrowth software · >30x demanding
Full explanation →		 2.5x / 7.2x / 11.1x
EV / EBIT?EV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization.
Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise.
Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress
Full explanation →		 7.2x / 14.8x / 18.7x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
We're not showing a peer-implied price for HOVNP: with only 0 genuine same-industry comparables, a median built partly from broader-sector names would be misleading. Lean on the DCF above; use the multiples table only as loose context.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
TRT TRIO-TECH INTERNATIONAL Special Industry Machinery ·fallback $129M 3.5x 14.1x508.7x 6.7%
SRFM SURF AIR MOBILITY INC. Air Courier ·fallback $124M 1.3x —— 26.5%
VHUB VenHub Global, Inc. Misc Industrial & Commerci ·fallback $151M 175.1x 539.4x— 0.1%
SPWR SunPower Inc. Specialty Construction ·fallback $155M 1.1x 2.5x— 17.0%
TORO TORO CORP. Deep Sea Foreign Transport ·fallback $108M — —— —
YDDL One & one Green Technologies. INC Misc Durable Goods ·fallback $176M 2.7x 11.1x14.8x 14.2%
ZJK ZJK Industrial Co., Ltd. Bolts, Nuts, Screws, Rivet ·fallback $177M 3.2x 7.2x18.7x 2.6%
VATE INNOVATE Corp. Fabricated Metal ·fallback $208M 0.2x 1.0x7.2x 71.2%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
5 passed · 2 failed · 2 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 5 of 7 measurable checks passed. 2 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 7, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $63.9M in FY2025.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $188.3M (was $23.6M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $188.3M vs net income $63.9M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 2.4% vs 9.3% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 34.2% of assets vs 34.4% a year ago ($900.7M of $2,633.9M assets).
  • · Short-term liquidity (current ratio) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count declined 1.6% (7.0M → 6.9M year-over-year), so the no-dilution check passed. (One-year change; the multi-year buyback pace can differ.)
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 1.13x vs 1.15x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for HOVNP. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for HOVNP because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think HOVNP can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$19.30
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    The market is likely discounting the stock due to its low franchise/durability score of 1/5, indicating concerns about its long-term competitive position. The #1 quantifiable risk is the market's implied decline rate of 20.0% compared to the model's 3.0%.

    ⚠️ Terminal growth (3%) capped to 2.4% (80% of near-term growth 3%).

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    HOVNP HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    2.1%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 2.1¢ of every dollar ($9.27/sh = latest fiscal-year net income ÷ current shares. The table below shows GAAP diluted EPS of $7.43, computed on that year's weighted-average diluted shares — the share count moved, which is why they differ)
    Costs & taxes — 97.9¢ (on $432.18 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: each share (at $19) represents $432.18 of revenue per share per year, $9.27 of net income per current share, and $21.69 of free cash flow per share from the latest fiscal year. Each share carries $130.69 of total debt (interest-bearing borrowings, current + long-term).
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Operating cash flow must continue to be positive and grow, demonstrating the company's ability to generate sufficient funds from its core operations to support its business and potentially expand.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The low franchise/durability score of 1/5 implies a weak competitive position, and if this continues, it could lead to sustained market share erosion and margin compression.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Changes in the franchise/durability score
    • Trends in new home orders and backlog
    • Movement in long-term debt levels
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Free cash flow turned positive at $149.5M.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Net income fell -74% to $63.9M.

    Roughly flat: Revenue was flat -1% to $2.98B.

    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Ara K. Hovnanian has served as Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. for many years, leading the company through various housing market cycles. He is a key figure in the company's long history as a homebuilder.

    Ara K. Hovnanian
    Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
    J. Larry Sorsby
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Hovnanian Enterprises is a homebuilding company that designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes, primarily targeting first-time and move-up homebuyers across various states.

    End Markets

    First-time homebuyersMove-up homebuyersActive adult communities

    Revenue Drivers

    New home sales
    Land sales
    Financial services
    Market Cap: 133.0MBeta: 0.55
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Variety of home designs and communities
    Customization options for buyers
    Access to financing services
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company reports its financials in its home currency while the shares trade here in dollars. Mixing the two produces a per-share value that looks real but isn't, so we hold the valuation rather than publish a number we can't stand behind. The reported figures below are the company's own.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market prices HOVNP at a 94.4% discount, likely reflecting concerns about its long-term competitive position, as indicated by its low franchise/durability score of 1/5. While revenue is roughly flat (1.7%/yr over 4yr) and net income and operating cash flow are positive, the market appears to be skeptical about its future growth potential and competitive moat.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Sale of single-family homes
    Sale of townhomes and condominiums
    Mortgage financing services

    The company has been reducing its long-term debt, which has fallen from $1248M to $901M.

    Free Cash Flow DCF

    Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth1.7%
    Eps Growth-44.1%
    Historical Fcf Growth-8.7%
    Sector Default6.0%
    Best Estimate3.0%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)
    Growth Basistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Mature compounder

    Moat Signals

    Established brand recognition in specific regions
    Experience navigating housing cycles
    Access to land inventory

    Revenue has been roughly flat, growing 1.7%/yr over 4 years from $2783M to $2979M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Hovnanian Enterprises operates primarily in various states across the United States, focusing on key housing markets. Specific geographic mix percentages are not available from current data sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in specific regional housing markets
    Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bullish, tape bullish - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    51.0NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$20.73Price below (-6.9%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$20.53Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (2)
    • Terminal growth (3%) capped to 2.4% (80% of near-term growth 3%).
    • Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INC's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    20253.0B63.9M$7.43
    20243.0B242.0M$31.79
    20232.8B205.9M$26.88
    20222.9B225.5M$29.00
    20212.8B607.8M$85.86

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 188.3M 22.1M 16.7M 149.5M
    2024 23.6M 17.9M 25.3M -19.5M
    2023 435.3M 18.8M 14.2M 402.2M
    2022 89.5M 12.6M 10.3M 66.6M
    2021 210.2M 5.9M 7.7M 196.6M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 188.3M − 22.1M − 16.7M (SBC & adj.) = 149.5M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets2.6B
    Total Liabilities1.8B
    Equity830.9M
    Total Debt900.7M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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