NOVA LTD. (NVMI) Stock Analysis
NOVA LTD.
▾ What's in the 43/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read NVMI
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for NVMI looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — NVMI's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $259.2M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $245.6M (was $235.3M the prior year).
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✗ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $245.6M vs net income $259.2M.Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
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✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 11.0% vs 13.2% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $2,360.5M).
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✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 6.28x vs 2.32x a year ago.
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✗ Share count (dilution)Share count rose 2.1% (0.0M → 0.0M year-over-year).Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
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✗ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 57.4% vs 57.6% a year ago.Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
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✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.37x vs 0.48x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for NOVA LTD. due to data issues, specifically suppressed per-share values. While the company demonstrates positive net income and operating cash flow, and revenue growth of 20.6% annually over four years, the market is likely focused on its continued expansion in the semiconductor metrology and inspection market. Investors are betting on sustained revenue growth and the company's ability to maintain its profitability. The #1 quantifiable risk is the data unavailability for per-share metrics, which hinders precise fundamental analysis.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Next quarter's revenue growth rate
- Continued positive operating cash flow
- Resolution of per-share data reliability issues
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +31% to $880.6M.
- Net income grew +41% to $259.2M.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Roughly flat: Free cash flow was roughly flat (within 2%) at $191.6M. · Gross margin held to 57% (0 pts).
Management & Leadership
Eitan Oppenhaim has served as the President and CEO of Nova Ltd. since 2013, leading the company's strategic direction and growth in the semiconductor industry. Gabi Waisman is the company's Chief Financial Officer.
What They Make
Nova Ltd. provides metrology and inspection solutions for advanced process control in semiconductor manufacturing. Their products are used by semiconductor manufacturers to monitor and control critical dimensions and material properties during chip production.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is pricing NVMI based on its consistent revenue growth of 20.6% annually over four years and its sustained profitability, with net income positive for five consecutive years. Despite the 'Extreme valuation' flag and data issues preventing a reliable DCFDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation →, investors are likely valuing the company on its strong operational health signals and future growth prospects in the critical semiconductor industry.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company has been profitable for five consecutive years with positive operating cash flow, suggesting it funds itself through operations rather than relying heavily on external equity raises.
Free Cash Flow DCF Moderate franchise
Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. High P/FCF (83x) - market pricing significant growth. Extended fade horizon (5→6 years)
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 20.6% |
| Eps Growth | 26.1% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | 13.1% |
| Sector Default | 10.0% |
| Best Estimate | 17.4% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has grown at 20.6% per year over four years, from $416M to $881M, and net income has been positive for five consecutive years.
Geography & Markets
Nova Ltd. is headquartered in Israel but operates globally, serving semiconductor manufacturers across major technology hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Specific geographic revenue mix is not available in current filings.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)49.6NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (2)
- Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From NOVA LTD.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 880.6M | 259.2M | $7.96 |
| 2024 | 672.4M | 183.8M | $5.75 |
| 2023 | 517.9M | 136.3M | $4.28 |
| 2022 | 570.7M | 140.2M | $4.43 |
| 2021 | 416.1M | 93.1M | $3.12 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 245.6M | 27.7M | 26.3M | 191.6M |
| 2024 | 235.3M | 17.2M | 25.2M | 192.8M |
| 2023 | 123.5M | 17.2M | 18.3M | 88.1M |
| 2022 | 119.5M | 21.3M | 16.6M | 81.6M |
| 2021 | 132.3M | 4.8M | 10.5M | 117.0M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 245.6M − 27.7M − 26.3M (SBC & adj.) = 191.6M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 2.4B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.0B |
| Equity | 1.3B |
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