Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 27 days ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Alcoa Corp

AA Basic Materials Nonferrous Metals📄 SEC filings ↗ CUSIP 013872106
Model suggests significant overvaluation
⚠ Low-confidence DCF estimate
Price vs model IV Expensive (+345%) Long-term trend (200d) 7% below 200-day DCF applicability Low Risk 60/100 High
▾ What's in the 60/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Valuation (price vs model IV) (30%) 92/100 → +27.6
Fundamental health (30%) 38/100 → +11.4
leverage 20/100 · DCF applicability 80/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (22%) 55/100 → +12.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (18%) 50/100 → +9.0
Total60/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $51.71 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 27 days ago
📍 START HERE

How to read AA (cyclical commodity producer)

AA generates real cash flow, but the DCF here is a low-confidence estimate — the value is sensitive to how we normalize cash flow, cyclicality, and secular/industry risk. Treat the DCF as one input, then pressure-test it against the reverse-DCF, leverage, and the operating trends below.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
    How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
  2. 2 Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
    Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
⚖️
"Is it worth what it costs?"
The valuation trade. Our DCF, the growth the price implies, and a calculator you drive yourself.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Why a standard DCF doesn't settle this one — AA is a cyclical commodity producer

Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: right now AA trades well above our through-cycle DCF — typical when commodity prices (and therefore profits) are near a cycle high. That isn't necessarily "overvalued"; the market is paying for current pricing power, reserves and asset value the cash-flow model doesn't capture.

For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.

ⓘ Why does AA trade at $51.71?

Alcoa Corp has 261.0 million shares outstanding. At $51.71 per share, the market values all outstanding AA equity at $13.5 billion. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values AA in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
VALUATION LENS — REVERSE DCF

What cash-flow improvement must the market believe? ?Reverse DCF — Instead of asking "what is this stock worth?", asks "what growth rate is the current market price already assuming?"
Why it matters: It crystallizes the bull thesis as a single number you can argue with. If the market expects 40% growth for 10 years and you do not believe that, the stock is overvalued.
Reference: 10–15% = sustainable for strong companies · 20–25% = exceptional · 30%+ = historically very rare

Reverse DCF treats today's price as correct and solves for the cash-flow path that justifies it. For a cyclical, read the result as the annual improvement in through-cycle free cash flow the price requires — which could come from higher realized commodity prices, margin recovery, lower input costs, more volume, or reduced capex, not just organic growth. The starting base is our normalized mid-cycle median, not last year's number.

To justify today's $51.71 price, AA's through-cycle free cash flow?Free Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → must improve by:
+24.4%
10-year flat improvement in through-cycle FCF implied by today's price
This is a different figure from the 29.2% in the verdict at the top: that one is the 5-year implied per-share growth on the model's scenario-weighted path, while this is a 10-year flat rate. Different horizon and shape, so a different number — not a contradiction. Both are solved at today's live price.
▾ Exactly how this 10-year figure is computed
Starting FCF/share: $1.26 (normalized multi-year median)
Forecast length: 10 years, single flat growth rate (no fade)
Terminal growth after year 10: 2.0%
Discount rate: 13.1% (the rate the model used)
Price used: $51.71 — the live price shown on this page (not frozen)
Method: solve for the constant annual growth rate that makes the discounted 10-year FCF stream + terminal value equal today's price.
Exceptional

Few companies sustain 18-25% CAGR for a decade. A handful of historical compounders did — typically while still relatively small. Achieving this at mega-cap scale (\$500B+) is dramatically harder because the base is already enormous.

For reference: Exceptional is not a compliment here — sustaining mid-teens cash-flow growth for ten straight years is rare at scale. The price is betting on a top-tier outcome.

▾ How we computed this · Reality check thresholds · Assumptions
Inputs:
  • Starting FCF/share: $1.26 (normalized multi-year median)
  • Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
    Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
    Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
    Full explanation →    : 13.1% — standard 8-12%; 9-10% matches S&P 500 historical return
  • Terminal Growth Rate?Terminal Growth Rate — The growth rate we assume the company holds forever, after the explicit 10-year forecast period ends.
    Why it matters: It anchors the long-tail value. Cannot mathematically exceed long-term GDP growth or the company eventually becomes larger than the global economy.
    Reference: 2–3% (matches long-term US GDP growth) · Above 4% is mathematically problematic
    Full explanation →    : 2.0% — matches long-term GDP growth
  • Forecast horizon: 10 years explicit + terminal perpetuity
Reality-check scale:
≤ 0%Priced for decline — likely undervalued OR dying business
5-12%Reasonable; sustainable for quality businesses
12-18%Demanding — strong execution required
18-25%Exceptional — few companies sustain for a decade
25-35%Heroic — historically very rare
35%+Borderline impossible at scale

Sustaining 30%+ cash-flow growth for a full decade at scale is exceedingly rare — the bar is brutally high.

Use the interactive calculator below to change the discount rate, growth and terminal-growth assumptions and watch the value move.

VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

If FCF grew -5%/yr → 8%/yr (flat 10-yr DCF sweep; model assumes 2.5%)$7$18Our model's scenarios (cons→opt growth, weighted 40/35/25)$10$14Current: $51.71$7$19$31$42$54
The current price sits ABOVE the high end of every method. The market is paying a premium to all of these lenses — it expects materially better growth or margins than the models assume.

Industry multiples sourced from: broad market average (sector unknown). See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — LIMITED COMPARABLES

⚠ We found only 1 genuine same-industry (Nonferrous Metals) comparable — fewer than the 4 we require for a reliable median. The 8 names in the table below therefore include 7 broader Basic Materials names marked fallback, whose business models and margins differ — which is why any median below is computed over that wider set, not over true comparables. So we do not derive a peer-implied share value here. Read the multiples as rough context only.

How does AA stack up against its closest peers?

Ideally we compare AA only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 1.5x / 2.2x / 4.0x
EV / Gross Profit?EV / Gross Profit — Enterprise value divided by gross profit — the multiple paid for what each dollar of sales contributes after direct costs.
Why it matters: More refined than EV/Sales for high-margin businesses (software, marketplaces) where gross margin is the real economic engine.
Reference: 8–15x for SaaS · 15–25x for hypergrowth software · >30x demanding
Full explanation →		 16.5x / 17.0x / 20.6x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.

What AA would be worth at the median peer's multiple
We're not showing a peer-implied price for AA: with only 1 genuine same-industry comparable, a median built partly from broader-sector names would be misleading. Lean on the DCF and Reverse-DCF above; use the multiples table only as loose context.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GP EV/EBIT FCF Yield
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM CO Nonferrous Metals $6.5B 2.6x 25.5x 41.3x 0.2%
RPM RPM INTERNATIONAL INC/DE/ Paints ·fallback $13.5B 1.8x 4.4x — 4.0%
SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. Industrial Chemicals ·fallback $13.4B 4.0x — — 3.4%
SIM GRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. Steel ·fallback $13.8B — — — —
WLK WESTLAKE CORP Industrial Organic Chemica ·fallback $11.1B 1.5x 20.6x — 11.9%
EQX Equinox Gold Corp. Gold & Silver Mining ·fallback $10.6B — 16.5x — —
SUZ Suzano S.A. Paper Mills ·fallback $10.3B — — — —
SQM CHEMICAL & MINING CO OF CHILE INC Mining & Quarrying of Nonm ·fallback $22.6B — 17.0x — —
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski checks
5 passed · 3 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 5 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $1,157.0M in the latest year.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $1,185.0M (was $622.0M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $1,185.0M vs net income $1,157.0M.
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 7.2% vs 0.4% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 15.1% of assets vs 17.6% a year ago ($2,438.0M now).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 1.44x vs 1.45x a year ago.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 22.0% (214.0M → 261.0M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.80x vs 0.85x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 13.1%, the figure our model used for AA. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $11.61. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.

Probability-weighted model IV
$11.61
It trades at
$51.71
Premium to model IV
+345.4%
Price is 345% above model IV — it looks overvalued. Change the assumptions below to see what would justify today's price.
We value this stock at two discount rates and report the range between them:
13.1% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's Beta?Beta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 1.57. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
11.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 13.1% — the beta-based rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)
Flat-path value at your assumptions (single growth path — not the probability-weighted scenario IV)
$11.61
vs today's $51.71
+345.4%

At the default assumptions the flat path lands near our published value of $11.61. Move any slider to recompute it with your own.

For comparison — the FCF growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think AA can grow FCF for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$51.71
    Model IV$11.61
    Premium to IV+345.4%
    DCF applicabilityLow
    ⚠️ Outlier ResultP/IV 4.5x — result dominated by model assumptions or data limits. Treat with caution.
    ⚠️ Outlier result (P/IV 4.5x) — this valuation gap is too extreme to produce reliable growth or return estimates. The model may not suit this company's profile.

    Alcoa Corp is deep_overvalued; the price is 282% ABOVE intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →     (a 282% premium). The market appears to be paying for significant future growth, implying a 29.2% annual per-share cash flow growth, which is substantially higher than the model's 2.5% base rate. The market may be assigning value to potential future demand surges for aluminum in green energy and electric vehicle manufacturing, which is not in the model. The biggest risk that our model's base assumptions prove too high is if the long-term debt continues to rise from its current $2438M, potentially straining future cash flows.

    ⚠️ Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).

    As of 27 days ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    AA Alcoa Corp stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    9.0%
    profit
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    Net profit — 9.0¢ of every dollar ($4.43/sh = latest fiscal-year net income ÷ current shares. The table below shows GAAP diluted EPS of $4.37, computed on that year's weighted-average diluted shares — the share count moved, which is why they differ)
    Costs & taxes — 91.0¢ (on $49.16 revenue/sh)
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $52/share buys $49.16 of revenue per share per year, generates $4.43 of net income per current share, and $2.02 of owner-earnings free cash flow per current share (latest fiscal year). Each share carries $9.34 of debt. The DCF does not start from that single year — it instead starts from a normalized multi-year median of $1.26 per share to capture a full cycle.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Underlying cash flow must stabilize or grow around the modeled business rate of 2.5% annually, driven by sustained demand for aluminum and effective cost management, while the current ratio remains adequate at 1.44.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest operating risk is that operating cash flow, while positive, could decline from its current positive level, exacerbated by the rising long-term debt ($2438M), leading to a material multi-year contraction in per-share cash flow worse than the market's implied 29.2% annual growth.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Trends in global aluminum demand and prices
    • Changes in long-term debt levels
    • Operating cash flow generation in upcoming quarters
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Revenue grew +8% to $12.83B.
    • Free cash flow rose to $526.0M.
    • Net income grew +1,828% to $1.16B.
    ⚠ Worsening

    Nothing clearly worsening year-over-year.

    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Roy Harvey has served as CEO of Alcoa Corp since 2017, leading the company through various market cycles in the aluminum industry. As a major global producer, Alcoa's executive team focuses on operational efficiency and strategic asset management.

    Roy Harvey
    Chief Executive Officer
    Molly S. Beerman
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Alcoa Corp is a global producer of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. They primarily sell these materials to industrial customers in various manufacturing sectors.

    End Markets

    AutomotiveAerospaceConstruction

    Revenue Drivers

    Alumina sales
    Aluminum sales
    Bauxite sales
    Market Cap: 13.5BBeta: 1.57
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Essential raw material for lightweighting in transportation
    Critical component for electrical conductivity
    Recyclability and sustainability benefits
    Intrinsic Value$11.61
    Premium to IV +345.4%
    Outlier Result P/IV 4.5x — valuation gap too extreme for meaningful implied growth or return estimates.

    The market prices AA at a premium of +282% to the model's intrinsic value?Intrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
    Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
    Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
    Full explanation →    , implying a significant 29.2% annual per-share cash flow growth. This optimism likely stems from the company's consistent positive operating cash flow (positive 5/5 yrs) and recent profitability (profitable 3/5 yrs), despite revenue being roughly flat over four years. The market may be assigning value to future demand for aluminum in emerging sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure, which is not in the model.

    Three Scenarios, Weighted
    ScenarioIVvs PriceWeight
    Conservative$10.12-80.4%40%
    Base$11.79-77.2%35%
    Optimistic$13.73-73.4%25%
    Weighted$11.61-77.5%100%
    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Selling primary aluminum to manufacturers
    Selling alumina (aluminum oxide) to smelters
    Selling bauxite (aluminum ore) to refiners

    Long-term debt is rising from $1726M to $2438M, indicating increased leverage, while the company funds its operations and investments.

    Normalized FCF Low

    Cyclical/commodity sector (Nonferrous Metals): normalized FCF uses 5-year median to smooth peak/trough distortions.

    ▾ Why is DCF applicability "Low" for AA?
    A "Low" score means an FCF-DCF is a weaker fit for this business — not that the number is wrong, but that it deserves more skepticism. The specific drivers here:
    • The latest single-year FCF sits materially below the normalized figure the model uses, a sign of cyclicality (e.g. the commodity-price cycle).
    • Individual business-segment drivers are not forecast separately — the model works off consolidated cash flow only.

    Because of this, we headline the more conservative discount rate and urge you to weight the reverse-DCF, leverage, and operating trends alongside the DCF.

    In plain English: we estimate AA's value by projecting its owner-earnings free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure and stock-based compensation) into the future and converting it back to what it's worth today. We start from $1.26 per share (normalized multi-year median), assume it grows 2.5% per year for about 5 years (then gradually fades), and discount everything at 13.1% — the yearly return a buyer should demand for this much risk. After that it's assumed to grow 2.0% per year forever (kept below long-run economic growth — the terminal rate fades from the near-term growth above, so a low near-term rate produces a low perpetual rate). A higher discount rate or slower growth means a lower value, and vice-versa — change any of these yourself in the calculator above.
    Owner-earnings FCF / share$1.26normalized multi-year median — smoothed, not the latest single year
    Growth (g₁) — 5yr2.5%Source: blend(70% revenue cagr, 30% sector)
    Discount Rate (r)13.1%
    Terminal Growth (gT)2.0%
    Show advanced inputs
    RevenueGrowth1.4%
    HistoricalFcfGrowth2.3%
    SectorDefault5.0%
    SectorDefaultSourceBasic Materials sector default
    BestEstimate2.5%
    Methodblend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector)
    GrowthBasistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Cyclical / commodity-linked producer

    Moat Signals

    Large-scale production capacity
    Integrated supply chain (bauxite to aluminum)
    Established global distribution network

    Revenue has been roughly flat, growing at 1.4% per year over four years, from $12152M to $12831M.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Alcoa Corp operates globally, with significant mining, refining, and smelting operations across various continents, though specific geographic revenue mix percentages are not available from current data sources.

    Geographic Risks

    Commodity price volatility and global economic cycles
    Geopolitical risks impacting supply chains and demand
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model bearish, tape neutral
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    27.4OversoldHeavily sold off recently — sometimes a bounce setup, sometimes a falling knife.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$61.13Price below (-15.4%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$55.73Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (5)
    • Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
    • Median OCF: $822.00M, est. maintenance capex: $493.20M, normalized FCF: $328.80M.
    • Terminal growth set to 2% — the lowest of the applicable caps (binding: 80% of near-term growth (2.5%)). We use one effective terminal rate everywhere on the page.
    • Price is 3.8x model IV - market may be pricing optionality, narrative catalysts, or margin expansion beyond what trailing cash flows support.
    • Cyclical commodity producer: price is 3.8x the through-cycle free-cash-flow value ($11.61). FCF-DCF structurally understates capital-intensive miners/energy — use the EV/Sales peer lens and the commodity-price outlook, not this single number.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Alcoa Corp's SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    202512.8B1.2B$4.37
    202411.9B60.0M$0.26
    202310.6B-651.0M$-3.65
    202212.5B-123.0M$-0.68
    202112.2B429.0M$2.26

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBCFree Cash Flow
    2025 1.2B 618.0M 41.0M 526.0M
    2024 622.0M 580.0M 36.0M 6.0M
    2023 91.0M 531.0M 35.0M -475.0M
    2022 822.0M 480.0M 40.0M 302.0M
    2021 920.0M 390.0M 39.0M 491.0M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 1.2B − 618.0M − 41.0M (stock-based comp) = 526.0M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a normalized multi-year median, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets16.1B
    Total Liabilities9.9B
    Equity6.1B
    Total Debt2.4B
    VIDEOS

    Recent video coverage

    Top recent YouTube videos by date. We don't endorse the channels — these are surfaced for context.

    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed 27 days ago (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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