Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Analysis
Vale S.A.
▾ What's in the 40/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read VALE (cyclical commodity producer)
A miner or energy producer earns whatever the commodity price is, so a single DCF swings with the cycle. Judge it against peers and where you think the commodity cycle is heading.
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EV/Sales peer comparison ↓
How the price compares to similar producers is more meaningful than a through-cycle DCF.
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Interactive calculator (test cycle assumptions) ↓
Flex the growth/discount inputs to see how sensitive the value is to where we are in the cycle.
Standard DCF doesn't fit VALE well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The EV/Sales Peer Comparison below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value metal mining. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
Miners, metals and energy producers earn whatever the commodity price is at the time. A discounted-cash-flow model leans on recent cash flow, so it swings with the cycle: the result is dominated by where we are in the commodity cycle rather than by durable business economics.
For this business type, lean on the EV/Sales peer comparison and Reverse-DCF below (how today's price compares to similar producers and what growth it implies), and weigh the commodity-price outlook. Treat the DCF number as a rough mid-cycle reference, not a buy/sell trigger.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $1,983.0M in the latest year.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $16,595.0M (was $24,496.0M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $16,595.0M vs net income $1,983.0M.
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✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 2.3% vs 7.5% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
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✓ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 0.0% of assets vs 0.0% a year ago ($0.0M now).
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· Short-term liquidity (current ratio) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✗ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 35.0% vs 36.2% a year ago.Why this matters: Rising gross margin means stronger pricing power or lower input costs — a sign of competitive strength. Falling margin signals pressure.
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✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.44x vs 0.47x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Vale S.A. due to its cyclical nature and the model's use of normalized cash flow, which floors growth at 0% given its historical negative FCFFree Cash Flow (FCF) — Operating cash flow minus capital spending: cash left after a company covers operating costs, taxes and interest and reinvests in the business — but BEFORE repaying debt principal or paying dividends. The cash actually available to investors.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation → decline of 4.4%. Investors are likely focused on the company's ability to maintain positive operating cash flow and net income, both of which have been positive for the latest five years. The biggest risk to our own assumptions is that the revenue continues its declining trend of -8.4% per year, which would challenge the stability of future cash flows.
As of 4 days ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →, which is currently estimated at $6.85B. This would support continued positive net income and operating cash flow.
Why it matters: A company can show big profits on paper while burning through cash. FCF is what actually fills the bank account.
Reference: Healthy mature businesses convert 8–15% of revenue into FCF · Growth companies often negative
Full explanation →.
- Trends in global iron ore and base metal prices
- Quarterly revenue growth rates
- Gross margin stability or improvement
The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
Nothing clearly improving year-over-year.
- Free cash flow fell to $818.0M.
- Gross margin shrank to 35% (-1 pts).
- Net income fell -67% to $1.98B.
Roughly flat: Revenue was flat +1% to $38.40B.
Management & Leadership
Eduardo Bartolomeo has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Vale S.A. since 2019, leading the company through various market cycles and operational challenges. He oversees the company's global mining operations and strategic initiatives.
What They Make
Vale S.A. is a global mining company that produces and sells iron ore, pellets, nickel, and copper. Its primary customers are steelmakers and other industrial manufacturers who pay for these essential raw materials.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing Vale based on its status as a major global commodity producer, focusing on the cyclical nature of its core products and the company's ability to generate positive operating cash flow, which has been consistent for the last five years. Despite revenue declining by -8.4% annually over four years, the market may be anticipating a stabilization or rebound in commodity prices, given the company's positive net income track record.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
Vale S.A. typically funds itself through operating cash flow, which has been positive for the last five years, and manages its debt. The company has historically engaged in dividend distributions, reflecting its mature and cash-generative business model.
Normalized FCF
Cyclical/commodity sector (Metal Mining): normalized FCF uses 5-year median to smooth peak/trough distortions.
Show advanced inputs
| RevenueGrowth | -8.4% |
| HistoricalFcfGrowth | -53.5% |
| SectorDefault | 5.0% |
| SectorDefaultSource | Basic Materials sector default |
| BestEstimate | -4.4% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| GrowthBasis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been declining at -8.4% per year over the last four years, from $54502M to $38403M.
Geography & Markets
Vale S.A. is headquartered in Brazil and operates globally, with significant mining operations and sales in various regions, including North America, Europe, and Asia, though specific geographic segment percentages are not available in current filings.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)50.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (10 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (9)
- Cyclical sector: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus estimated maintenance capex).
- Median OCF: $17.11B, est. maintenance capex: $10.27B, normalized owner-earnings FCF: $6.85B.
- Historical FCF growth is negative (-4.4%) - likely reflects commodity cycle peak. Flooring at 0%.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- VALUATION HELD (MISSING_SHARE_COUNT): per-share values suppressed due to shares/market cap missing or unreliable.
- Extreme valuation gap (P/IV null): result may be dominated by model assumptions, share count issues, or sector-specific dynamics. Treat as low confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Vale S.A.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.4B | 2.0B | — |
| 2024 | 38.1B | 6.0B | — |
| 2023 | 41.8B | 8.1B | — |
| 2022 | 43.8B | 18.9B | — |
| 2021 | 54.5B | 22.5B | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 16.6B | 15.8B | — | 818.0M |
| 2011 | 24.5B | 16.1B | — | 8.4B |
| 2010 | 19.2B | 12.6B | — | 6.5B |
| 2009 | 7.1B | 8.1B | — | -960.0M |
| 2008 | 17.1B | 9.0B | — | 8.1B |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a normalized multi-year median, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 86.5B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.2B |
| Equity | — |