Airship AI Holdings, Inc. (AISP) Stock Analysis

Price updated 4 days ago · SEC data refreshed 3 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Airship AI Holdings, Inc.

AISP Technology Software📄 SEC filings ↗
Valuation N/A
Long-term trend (200d) 45% below 200-day Risk 35/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 35/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 57/100 → +17.9
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 33/100 → +8.5
Total35/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $1.94 · 4 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 3 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read AISP

We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reported earnings & margins ↓
    What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
  2. 2 Balance sheet & book value ↓
    Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
  3. 3 Who's selling & betting against it ↓
    Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ A share-count quirk blocked the per-share math

The share count we read for AISP looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.

What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.

This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — AISP's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.

ⓘ Why does AISP trade at $1.94?

Airship AI Holdings, Inc. has 38.7 million shares outstanding. At $1.94 per share, the market values all outstanding AISP equity at $75 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (AISP carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values AISP in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

$2$3$4$6$7Current price $1.94EV / Sales (p25→p75)$1.89$6.64
The current price sits inside each method's range — roughly fair on this blended view.

Industry multiples sourced from: industry: Software. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

PEER BASKET — TIGHT COMPARABLES

How does AISP stack up against its closest peers?

We take the 5 same-industry companies most similar to AISP (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If AISP is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)
EV / Sales?EV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt).
Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices.
Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding
Full explanation →		 0.9x / 1.8x / 2.4x

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 5 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.

Peer-implied value check
$1.02
If AISP traded at the typical (median) peer's EV/Sales multiple, the share price would be about $1.02.
Plain English: the stock currently trades at $1.94. That's 90.3% MORE than the peer multiple suggests. The market is paying a big premium — AISP looks expensive vs peers. Either the market thinks this stock deserves a premium (faster growth, better margins, brand moat), or it's overpriced.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (8)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GPEV/EBIT FCF Yield
ZENA ZenaTech, Inc. Software $65M — —— —
SKIL Skillsoft Corp. Software $64M 1.2x —— 16.0%
WFCF Where Food Comes From, Inc. Software $59M 2.4x 6.2x49.0x 2.4%
SSTI SOUNDTHINKING, INC. Software $97M 0.9x 1.7x— 25.1%
YXT YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd Software $97M 2.4x —— 23.3%
WCT Wellchange Holdings Co Ltd Software ·fallback $74M 55.4x 130.0x— 2.0%
QXL QUANTUM X LABS INC. Software ·fallback $65M — —— —
ROC Rank One Computing Corp Software ·fallback $96M 5.7x 7.3x— 13.3%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Bankruptcy + quality screens

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
2.01
Grey zone

Grey zone — a mixed, inconclusive band under the classic thresholds. A warning to verify the recent trend, not a probability of failure.

The classic Z-score was calibrated on manufacturers. It is less reliable for asset-light or non-manufacturing businesses (broadcasters, media, software, services) and not applicable to banks, REITs, or insurers — for those the coefficients and the asset-turnover term distort the result. Read it as one screening input, not a verdict.

Piotroski F-Score?Piotroski F-Score — A 9-point quality checklist scoring profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
5 / 9
Mediocre
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✓ Positive net income
    Net income $29.3M in FY2025.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$8.0M (was -$6.5M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✗ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$8.0M vs net income $29.3M.
    Why this matters: When cash generated exceeds reported earnings, profits are high-quality (not propped up by accruals or one-time items).
  • ✓ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets 150.6% vs -419.2% a year ago.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $19.5M).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 2.94x vs 2.24x a year ago.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 57.3% (24.6M → 38.7M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • ✓ Pricing power (gross margin)
    Gross margin 50.2% vs 45.7% a year ago.
  • ✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.79x vs 1.68x a year ago.
    Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for AISP. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for AISP because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think AISP can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$1.94
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Airship AI Holdings, Inc. because its operating cash flow has been negative in the latest period and for all of the past five years, indicating a cash-burning growth stage. Investors are likely focused on future revenue growth and the potential for a turnaround to positive operating cash flow. The market may be assigning value to the potential for new government contracts or expanded AI applications in security, which are not captured in backward-looking models. The #1 quantifiable risk is the persistent negative operating cash flow, which implies ongoing reliance on external funding.

    ⚠️ Revenue declining

    As of 3 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    Revenue figure looks incomplete. Net income divided by the revenue we parsed gives a 191% margin, which no operating business earns — the revenue tag we read is almost certainly a fragment (a fee line or a single segment), not consolidated sales. We are not drawing the margin breakdown from it, and revenue-per-share on this page should be treated as unreliable until the filing's total-revenue tag resolves.
    Plain English: each share (at $2) represents $0.40 of revenue per share per year, $0.76 of net income per current share, and $0.25 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. The filing reports no interest-bearing debt — the 26.6M of total liabilities on the balance sheet are operating items (payables, leases, deferred taxes), not borrowings.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Operating cash flow must turn positive and sustain profitability to demonstrate the viability of its business model and reduce reliance on external funding.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    Continued negative operating cash flow, as seen in the latest period and for all of the past five years, implies ongoing cash burn and potential dilution from future equity raises.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Announcement of significant new government contracts
    • Improvement in operating cash flow margins
    • Expansion into new commercial market segments
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Gross margin improved to 50% (+5 pts).
    • Swung to a profit of $29.3M (from a loss the prior year).
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Revenue fell -34% to $15.3M.
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$9.6M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Airship AI Holdings, Inc. is led by CEO and Chairman Paul Allen, who has been instrumental in guiding the company's strategic direction since its inception. The executive team focuses on developing and deploying AI-driven video and data analytics solutions for government and commercial clients.

    Paul Allen
    Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
    John De Simone
    President
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Airship AI Holdings, Inc. develops and sells AI-driven video and data analytics software and hardware solutions primarily to government agencies and commercial enterprises for security, surveillance, and operational intelligence.

    End Markets

    Government securityPublic safetyCommercial enterprise

    Revenue Drivers

    Software license sales
    Hardware sales
    Maintenance and support services
    Market Cap: 75.0MBeta: 2.07
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Enhanced real-time situational awareness
    Improved operational efficiency through automation
    Advanced threat detection and prevention
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is likely pricing AISP based on expectations for future revenue growth and the potential for its AI technology to gain wider adoption, rather than its current cash flow, as operating cash flow has been negative for the latest period and all of the past five years. The market may be assigning value to the potential for significant new contract wins in the government sector or the expansion of its AI solutions into new commercial applications, which are not in the model. The adequate current ratio of 2.94 provides some short-term financial stability, allowing for continued investment in growth initiatives.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    AI software platform subscriptions/licenses
    Sale of integrated hardware solutions
    Professional services and technical support

    The company funds itself primarily through equity raises and its existing cash reserves, as it has negative operating cash flow and does not pay dividends or engage in buybacks.

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth15.0%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project product, services and recurring/cloud lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    High-growth technology

    Moat Signals

    Specialized AI algorithms for video analytics
    Integration with existing security infrastructure
    Proprietary data processing capabilities

    Net income was positive in the latest period and for 2 out of the last 5 years, while operating cash flow has been negative for all of the last 5 years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Airship AI Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in the US and primarily serves customers within North America, particularly government agencies. Exact geographic revenue splits are not available in current filings.

    Geographic Risks

    Reliance on government contracts and associated procurement cycles
    Intense competition in the AI and video analytics market
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    69.1NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$2.39Price below (-18.8%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$3.52Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    HIGH Revenue declining
    Guardrail Notes (5)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
    • Illiquidity discount 15% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    • Extreme valuation (P/IV withheld — see the note above); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Airship AI Holdings, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    202515.3M29.3M$0.76
    202423.1M-57.5M$-2.34
    202312.3M16.4M$0.80
    202214.5M-487,493$-0.04
    2021——$0.00

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    Capital expenditure isn't tagged in this filer's machine-readable data (the CapEx column shows "—"). The free-cash-flow column is therefore operating cash flow less stock-based compensation only — an upper bound on true owner earnings, not the real figure. Companies that report capex under a custom label (some large IFRS filers do) look better here than they are.

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2025 -8.0M — 1.6M -9.6M
    2024 -6.5M — 1.4M -7.9M
    2023 -3.3M — 715,727 -4.0M
    2022 -2.9M — 546,460 -3.4M
    2021 -1.6M — — -1.6M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -8.0M − — − 1.6M (SBC & adj.) = -9.6M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets19.5M
    Total Liabilities26.6M
    Equity-7.1M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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