Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQW) Stock Analysis

Price updated 2 days ago · SEC data refreshed 6 days ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

Arqit Quantum Inc.

ARQQW Technology Software📄 SEC filings ↗
Speculative
Long-term trend (200d) 96% below 200-day Risk 36/100 Moderate
▾ What's in the 36/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 20/100 → +8.6
leverage 20/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 45/100 → +14.1
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 50/100 → +12.9
Total36/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $0.01 · 2 days ago 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 6 days ago
📍 START HERE

How to read ARQQW (speculative micro-cap)

No model can pin a precise fair value on a company this small — but that does not mean there is nothing to learn. The useful questions are what the price is betting on, and whether the company can survive long enough to deliver it.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reverse-DCF — what growth the price assumes ↓
    The single most useful number here: it backs out the growth the market is paying for. If that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals.
  2. 2 Cash runway ↓
    A pre-profit micro-cap lives or dies on whether it can fund itself to profitability before running out of money and diluting you.
  3. 3 The raw financial statements + the 10-K ↓
    At this scale, the actual numbers, insider ownership, and share-count trend tell you more than any ratio.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
A note on process: fear-driven decisions — including fear of missing out — tend to be the expensive ones. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not evidence. Whichever reader you are, the data below is there to be checked before anything is decided.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit ARQQW well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value software. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why does ARQQW trade at $0.01?

Arqit Quantum Inc. has 5.1 million shares outstanding. At $0.01 per share, the market values all outstanding ARQQW equity at $0 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash (ARQQW carries little or no debt, so the two are close here). The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values ARQQW in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
Checking filings for failure warnings…
VALUATION RANGE — CROSS-METHOD CHECK

⚠ Standard industry multiples (the bars below) collapse toward $0 at this scale, so they aren't the useful read. For a micro-cap with sales, lean on the Momentum trend, and cash runway — see 📍 What to focus on.

Football field: where does the price sit?

Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.

$0$1$2$4$5Current price $0.01EV / Sales (p25→p75)$3.93$4.62
The price sits below every model's range — but this looks like the market correctly pricing in negative operating cash flow, an unprofitable latest year, not a free lunch. Read the Financial Health section before treating this as a bargain: cheap stocks are usually cheap for a reason. → Financial Health

Industry multiples sourced from: industry: Software. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.

⚠️ BUSINESS-MODEL ADVISORY — SPECULATIVE NANO / MICRO-CAP

How to read a company this small

ARQQW is too small and/or too volatile for the valuation lenses we use on larger, more stable companies. The numbers shown below should be taken as rough orientation only.

✅ What actually drives value for this kind of company
  • Market cap $27,324 — nano-cap territory (below $50M)
  • Latest annual revenue $293K — too small for meaningful growth percentages
❌ Metrics that DON'T apply (ignore these even if you see them below)

Growth percentages on tiny revenue bases (1000% going from $200K to $2M is not predictive). P/E and ROE swing wildly with small earnings changes. Peer comparisons fail because there often aren't comparable companies at this scale.

📚 Where to actually look

Start with the Reverse-DCF above — it backs out the growth the price is betting on; if that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals. Then the cash runway (can it fund itself to profitability before diluting you?). Then the raw Financials table and the 10-K on SEC EDGAR — at this scale, insider ownership and the share-count trend often matter more than any ratio.

Classified as Speculative Nano / Micro-cap (confidence 80%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.

FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. The classic manufacturing-calibrated model also fits asset-light businesses like this one poorly. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski-style checks (partial — not a standard F-score)
4 passed · 4 failed · 1 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 4 of 8 measurable checks passed. 1 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 8, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$54.6M in FY2024.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✗ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow -$34.1M (was -$32.8M the prior year).
    Why this matters: Profit can be an accounting figure; cash from running the business is harder to fake. Negative operating cash flow means the core business consumes cash and must be funded externally.
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow -$34.1M vs net income -$54.6M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -204.3% vs -70.5% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $26.7M).
  • ✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 1.94x vs 3.22x a year ago.
    Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
  • ✓ Share count (dilution)
    Share count declined 3.8% (5.3M → 5.1M year-over-year), so the no-dilution check passed. (One-year change; the multi-year buyback pace can differ.)
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • ✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)
    Asset turnover 0.01x vs 0.01x a year ago.

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

Cash Runway
7 mo
TIGHT — under a year; likely needs to raise capital soon

Plain English: the company holds about $19M in cash and is burning roughly $34M/year in operations. At that pace, the cash lasts 7 mo before it must raise capital (diluting shareholders), take on debt, or cut spending.

Assumes constant burn and ignores financing/asset sales. For pre-profit biotech and growth companies, this matters more than a DCF — a great drug pipeline is worthless if they run out of money before approval.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for ARQQW. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for ARQQW because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a nominal return: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is about 6% in real terms. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF carries inflation in both the growth and the discount rate), so this switch does not change the value — it restates the return in real terms.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think ARQQW can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$0.01
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. The other valuation lenses on this page (reverse-DCF, peers, sector lens — whichever apply to this filer) carry the read instead.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Arqit Quantum Inc. because its operating cash flow has been negative for the latest period and 0/5 years, indicating a cash-burning growth stage. Valuing this company would require a detailed understanding of its future revenue trajectory and margin expansion, which are highly speculative for early-stage technology companies. Investors are likely betting on the potential for its quantum encryption technology to achieve significant market adoption, which is not captured by backward-looking cash flow models. The biggest risk is that the model implies no positive equity value under its assumptions, suggesting a high probability of capital loss if the underlying business does not achieve substantial future profitability.

    ⚠️ Revenue declining

    As of 6 days ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    ARQQW Arqit Quantum Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    Revenue figure looks incomplete. Net income divided by the revenue we parsed gives a -18,628% margin, which no operating business earns — the revenue tag we read is almost certainly a fragment (a fee line or a single segment), not consolidated sales. We are not drawing the margin breakdown from it, and revenue-per-share on this page should be treated as unreliable until the filing's total-revenue tag resolves.
    Plain English: each share (at $0) represents $0.06 of revenue per share per year, $10.79 lost per share per year, and $7.32 of cash burned per share (negative free cash flow) from the latest fiscal year. The filing reports no interest-bearing debt — the 14.9M of total liabilities on the balance sheet are operating items (payables, leases, deferred taxes), not borrowings.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    The most important operating factor is for Arqit to achieve significant commercial adoption of its quantum encryption technology, leading to substantial revenue growth and a path to positive operating cash flow. This would validate the market's bet on its future potential.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The biggest operating risk is that the company continues to burn cash without achieving sufficient revenue scale or profitability, as indicated by its negative net income and operating cash flow. This could lead to ongoing dilution or liquidity challenges.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Quarterly revenue growth rates and new customer acquisitions
    • Progress towards positive operating cash flow
    • Announcements of significant commercial partnerships or government contracts
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (FY2023 → FY2024, latest reported)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Free cash flow is negative at -$37.0M — the cash burn narrowed vs last year.
    • Still unprofitable at -$54.6M — loss narrowing.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Revenue fell -54% to $293K.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    David Williams is the founder, Chairman, and CEO of Arqit Quantum Inc., leading the company since its inception. He has been instrumental in developing and commercializing the company's quantum encryption technology. The company's leadership is focused on advancing its secure quantum communications solutions.

    David Williams
    Founder, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    Nick Pointon
    Chief Financial Officer
    Dr. Daniel Shiu
    Chief Technology Officer
    WHAT

    What They Make

    Arqit Quantum Inc. develops and sells quantum encryption technology designed to secure communications against current and future cyber threats, including those posed by quantum computers. Their paying customers are primarily enterprises and government entities seeking advanced cybersecurity solutions.

    End Markets

    Government & DefenseTelecommunicationsFinancial Services

    Revenue Drivers

    Software license sales
    Subscription services for quantum encryption
    Consulting and integration services
    Market Cap: 27,324Beta: 1.02
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Enhanced data security against quantum threats
    Future-proof encryption solutions
    Simplified key management for complex networks
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer This company's reported free cash flow is negative, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation has no positive cash stream to discount. That is a fact about the business, not missing data — the reported figures below are complete.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market is pricing Arqit Quantum based on expectations of future revenue growth and the potential for its quantum encryption technology to become a critical component of global cybersecurity infrastructure. The company's negative operating cash flow and net income indicate it is in a cash-burning growth phase, making traditional cash flow valuation difficult. The market may be assigning value to the potential for its proprietary quantum technology to achieve widespread adoption and generate substantial future profits, which is not in the model.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) subscriptions for quantum encryption
    Direct sales of quantum security platforms
    Partnerships and licensing agreements for technology integration

    The company funds itself primarily through equity raises, as indicated by its negative operating cash flow and net income. Long-term debt has fallen from $5M to $0M, suggesting a focus on maintaining a debt-free balance sheet.

    Growth / Revenue DCF

    Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.

    Show advanced inputs
    Revenue Growth15.0%

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project product, services and recurring/cloud lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    High-growth technology

    Moat Signals

    Proprietary quantum encryption algorithms
    Early-mover advantage in quantum-safe cryptography
    Specialized expertise in quantum technology development

    Net income and operating cash flow have been negative in the latest period, with profitability in only 1/5 years and positive operating cash flow in 0/5 years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Arqit Quantum Inc. is headquartered in the UK and operates globally, serving customers across various international markets, though specific geographic revenue mix data is not available in current filings.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk in early adoption by government and defense sectors
    Intense competition in the cybersecurity and quantum technology space
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape bearish
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    35.5NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
    50-Day Average$0.04Price below (-86.5%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$0.14Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossDeath50-day below 200-dayA "death cross" — the medium trend is below the long trend (often read as bearish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (7 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    HIGH Revenue declining
    Guardrail Notes (6)
    • FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
    • Model implies no positive equity value under these assumptions. Valuation is speculative/low-confidence.
    • Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    • Extreme valuation: the model output is implausibly high vs the price — usually a share-count or units error. The model value is suppressed.
    • VALUATION HELD (EXTREME_MODEL_GAP): per-share values suppressed due to the model output failed plausibility checks.
    • Extreme valuation gap (P/IV withheld — see the note above): result may be dominated by model assumptions, share count issues, or sector-specific dynamics. Treat as low confidence.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From Arqit Quantum Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2024293,000-54.6M$-10.79
    2023640,000-70.4M$-13.39
    20227.2M65.1M$13.34
    202148,000-271.7M$-3.98
    2020—-568,000$-0.01

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBCFree Cash Flow
    2024 -34.1M 6,000 2.9M -37.0M
    2023 -32.8M 712,000 14.1M -47.7M
    2022 -26.7M 2.4M 21.7M -50.8M
    2021 -24.0M 223,000 166,000 -24.4M
    2020 -1.3M 26,000 122,000 -1.5M

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: -34.1M − 6,000 − 2.9M (stock-based comp) = -37.0M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets26.7M
    Total Liabilities14.9M
    Equity11.8M
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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed 6 days ago (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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