iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) Stock Analysis
iQIYI, Inc.
▾ What's in the 60/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read IQ (pre-profit growth)
This company is reinvesting instead of generating profit, so a standard DCF cannot price it. The useful question is whether the growth the market is paying for is achievable — and whether the company can fund itself until then.
-
1
Reverse-DCF — the growth the price demands ↓
It shows exactly how fast the business must grow to justify today's price. Compare that to what comparable companies have actually achieved.
-
2
Cash runway ↓
Can it reach profitability before it has to raise money and dilute shareholders?
-
3
Interactive calculator ↓
Set your own growth + margin assumptions and see what the business would be worth if you are right.
Standard DCF doesn't fit IQ well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value video tape rental. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
-
✗ Positive net incomeNet income -$29.5M in FY2025.Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
-
✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $15.1M (was $289.1M the prior year).
-
✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $15.1M vs net income -$29.5M.
-
✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets -0.4% vs 1.7% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
-
✓ Debt load (vs assets)The filing reports no interest-bearing debt in either year (total assets $6,675.4M).
-
✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 0.47x vs 0.44x a year ago — improved, but still below 1.0: the ✓ grades the trend, the level remains a caution flag.
-
· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
-
· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
-
✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.58x vs 0.64x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for iQIYI due to its negative net income and declining revenue. The company is in a growth stage, burning cash, and its current ratio is below 1, indicating liquidity challenges. Investors are likely focused on the potential for future revenue re-acceleration and achieving sustained profitability, rather than current cash flows. The primary quantifiable risk is the ongoing revenue decline of -5% per year over the last four years.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Quarterly subscriber growth trends
- Improvement in net income margin
- Increase in current ratio above 1
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue fell -3% to $3.90B.
- Free cash flow is negative at -$56.3M — the cash burn widened vs last year.
- Swung to a loss of -$29.5M (from a profit the prior year).
Nothing was clearly improving year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
iQIYI, Inc. is led by its founder and CEO, Dr. Yu Gong, who has been at the helm since its inception. He is also the Chairman of the Board. The executive team focuses on driving subscriber growth and content innovation in the competitive online entertainment market.
What They Make
iQIYI provides online entertainment services, primarily video streaming, to a broad audience in China. It offers a library of licensed and original content, including movies, TV series, variety shows, and animation.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is pricing iQIYI based on expectations of a future turnaround and a return to revenue growth, despite the current -5%/yr decline. The positive operating cash flow in the latest period, despite negative net income, suggests some operational efficiency, but the low current ratio (0.47) highlights liquidity concerns that investors are likely weighing against future potential.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself primarily through equity raises and operational cash flow, as it does not pay dividends or engage in buybacks.
Normalized FCF
Mature company (rev $3.9B) with negative current FCF but positive OCF in 3/5 years: using normalized cash flow (median OCF minus maintenance capex).
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | -5.0% |
| Historical Fcf Growth | -46.0% |
| Sector Default | 8.0% |
| Best Estimate | -1.1% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) |
| Growth Basis | total |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been declining at -5% per year over the last four years.
Geography & Markets
iQIYI primarily operates in the People's Republic of China, serving a vast domestic audience. Exact geographic segment splits are not available in current filings, but its focus is overwhelmingly within the Chinese market.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)45.4NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (9 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (7)
- Median OCF: $15.13M, est. maintenance capex: $9.08M, normalized FCF: $6.05M.
- Historical FCF growth is negative (-1.1%) - likely reflects commodity cycle peak. Flooring at 0%.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From iQIYI, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9B | -29.5M | — |
| 2024 | 4.0B | 104.7M | — |
| 2023 | 4.5B | 271.2M | — |
| 2022 | 4.2B | -19.7M | — |
| 2021 | 4.8B | -968.1M | — |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.1M | 13.7M | 57.7M | -56.3M |
| 2024 | 289.1M | 10.9M | 74.6M | 203.6M |
| 2023 | 472.1M | 5.2M | 89.7M | 377.2M |
| 2022 | -10.2M | 25.3M | 117.6M | -153.1M |
| 2021 | -934.0M | 41.0M | 191.3M | -1.2B |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 15.1M − 13.7M − 57.7M (SBC & adj.) = -56.3M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a mid-cycle estimate (median operating cash flow less estimated maintenance capex and stock compensation — by design NOT the table's FCF, which deducts every year's full capex), not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 6.7B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.8B |
| Equity | 1.9B |
Similar companies worth a look
Same sector and industry, similar fundamentals shape. Verify everything yourself — this list is computed mechanically and does not reflect our judgment about whether any of these are a good investment.