SHENGFENG DEVELOPMENT Ltd (SFWL) Stock Analysis
SHENGFENG DEVELOPMENT Ltd
▾ What's in the 45/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read SFWL
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
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1
Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
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2
Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
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3
Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
The share count we read for SFWL looks wrong — common for multi-class / founder-controlled filers that report shares per share-class. That makes per-share figures (including intrinsic value) misleading, so we suppressed them. The company's total financials below are sound.
What to use instead: Lean on the totals — revenue, net income, cash flow — and the balance sheet. Multi-class share counts are being corrected; once fixed, the per-share valuation returns automatically.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — SFWL's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
The Z-score needs working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, sales and total assets from the latest balance sheet, and at least one of those isn't reported in machine-readable form here — common for foreign private issuers. We leave it blank rather than compute a distress verdict from an estimated input. It doesn't affect the reported figures in the financial tables below.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
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✓ Positive net incomeNet income $11.9M in FY2025.
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✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $16.1M (was $15.0M the prior year).
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✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $16.1M vs net income $11.9M.
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✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 3.4% vs 3.5% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
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✗ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 23.4% of assets vs 18.0% a year ago ($81.3M of $347.0M assets).Why this matters: Rising debt relative to assets means more risk and more cash going to interest instead of shareholders. Falling debt is a sign of strengthening.
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✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 1.27x vs 1.26x a year ago.
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· Share count (dilution) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
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✓ Pricing power (gross margin)Gross margin 9.3% vs 9.2% a year ago.
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✓ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 1.65x vs 1.63x a year ago.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Shengfeng Development Ltd due to its revenue/margin growth model projecting future cash flows, indicating a focus on future trajectory rather than current stable cash flows. While the company has been profitable and cash flow positive for the past five years, its gross margin is compressing, making a traditional valuation challenging. Investors are likely betting on the company's ability to continue expanding its revenue base and improve its margins over time. The number one quantifiable risk is the rising long-term debt, which has increased from $46M to $81M.
As of 3 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Next quarter's gross margin trend
- Revenue growth rate acceleration/deceleration
- Changes in long-term debt levels
The trend, in plain numbers (FY2024 → FY2025, latest reported)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +14% to $572.5M.
- Free cash flow is negative at -$2.9M — the cash burn narrowed vs last year.
- Net income grew +10% to $11.9M.
Nothing was clearly worsening year-over-year.
Roughly flat: Gross margin held to 9% (+0 pts).
Management & Leadership
Shengfeng Development Ltd. is led by Mr. Rui Xu, who serves as the Chairman and CEO. He founded the company and has been instrumental in its strategic direction and growth within the logistics sector.
What They Make
Shengfeng Development Ltd. provides comprehensive logistics services, primarily focusing on trucking and freight transportation, serving businesses that require efficient goods movement.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing Shengfeng Development Ltd. based on its consistent revenue growth of 13.4% per year over the last four years and its positive operating cash flow for the past five years. Despite compressing gross margins, the market may be assigning value to the potential for continued expansion in the logistics sector, which is not fully captured by a backward-looking cash flow model. The market may also be assigning value to the company's ability to leverage its existing network for future growth opportunities, which is not in the model.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company has been profitable and cash flow positive, but its long-term debt is rising, suggesting it funds growth partly through debt.
Growth / Revenue DCF
Negative free cash flow: revenue/margin growth model used - standard FCF DCF is unreliable for companies still scaling.
Show advanced inputs
| Revenue Growth | 13.4% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project its revenue segments independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been growing at 13.4%/yr over 4 years, from $347M to $572M.
Geography & Markets
Shengfeng Development Ltd. primarily operates within China, focusing on domestic freight transportation and logistics services. Specific geographic revenue splits are not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)52.8NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BullishLine above signalThe fast trend is above the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently upward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (6 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (6)
- FCF negative: revenue/margin growth model projects future cash flows from revenue trajectory.
- Shares from unknown — per-share values may be less accurate.
- Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
- Shares/market cap missing or defaulted; per-share valuation unreliable.
- Shares defaulted to 1; IV is NOT meaningful — treat as data-unavailable.
- DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From SHENGFENG DEVELOPMENT Ltd's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 572.5M | 11.9M | — |
| 2024 | 504.2M | 10.9M | — |
| 2023 | 404.1M | 10.3M | $0.13 |
| 2022 | 370.3M | 7.8M | $0.10 |
| 2021 | 346.7M | 6.6M | $0.09 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.1M | 19.0M | — | -2.9M |
| 2024 | 15.0M | 29.5M | — | -14.5M |
| 2023 | 14.1M | 10.8M | — | 3.4M |
| 2022 | 4.8M | 6.9M | — | -2.1M |
| 2021 | 20.4M | 22.6M | — | -2.2M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a projected from revenue × terminal margin, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 347.0M |
| Total Liabilities | 208.1M |
| Equity | 131.9M |
| Total Debt | 81.3M |
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