TC ENERGY CORP (TRP) Stock Analysis
TC ENERGY CORP
▾ What's in the 52/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read TRP (regulated utility)
A regulator sets what a utility can earn, so its value tracks book value, dividend yield and payout — not a free-market DCF.
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Utility lens (P/B, yield, payout) ↓
These are the metrics utility-fund managers actually use.
Is now a good time to buy TRP?
Macro: Neutral / mid-cycleTRP trades at $64.02 vs an estimated intrinsic value of $48.11 — a +33.1% premium to model IV.
Not investment advice. The model can be wrong. Verify the assumptions in the sections below and consider consulting a licensed advisor for significant decisions.
Football field: where does the price sit?
Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.
Industry multiples sourced from: industry similar to Utilities. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.
How does TRP stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to TRP (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If TRP is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
2.1x / 3.4x / 4.8x |
| EV / EBITEV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise. Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress Full explanation → |
12.8x / 14.9x / 20.8x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Gas Utilities | $66.0B | 1.6x | — | 14.9x | 3.0% |
| KMI | KINDER MORGAN, INC. | Gas Utilities | $69.1B | 4.6x | — | 14.9x | 3.8% |
| EPD | ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P. | Gas Utilities | $79.6B | 2.1x | — | 15.5x | 3.0% |
| TRGP | Targa Resources Corp. | Gas Utilities | $54.7B | 4.2x | — | 21.7x | 3.0% |
| OKE | ONEOK INC /NEW/ | Gas Utilities | $52.9B | 2.5x | — | 14.6x | 4.9% |
| WMB | WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. | Gas Utilities | $87.3B | 5.9x | — | 20.8x | 2.8% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | Gas Utilities | $47.1B | 2.4x | — | 5.2x | 0.9% |
| VG | Venture Global, Inc. | Gas Utilities | $31.7B | 4.8x | — | 12.8x | 1.5% |
Distribution coverage matters more than P/E
Midstream pipelines pay big distributions (the headline reason to own them) funded by Distributable Cash Flow. The critical metric is the Coverage Ratio — how comfortably DCF exceeds distributions. Below 1.0× means the distribution is borrowed; below 1.1× means no margin of safety for a commodity downturn.
Note: We approximate Distributable Cash Flow via FCF (subtracts all CapEx), which over-penalizes growth-CapEx-heavy midstream. The company-reported "DCF" typically adds back growth CapEx, making coverage look stronger. Treat this as a conservative floor. Also: MLPs issue K-1 tax forms instead of 1099-DIVs — distributions are partially tax-deferred return of capital, not ordinary dividends.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Midstream MLPs run high leverage backed by long-life pipeline infrastructure — Altman Z flags this as distress even when the cash flows are contractually locked in. See the MLP / Pipeline Lens above for the metric that actually matters: Distribution Coverage Ratio.
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F's checks (operating cash flow, gross-margin trend, current ratio, asset turnover) assume an industrial cost structure, so they misread asset-heavy or financial businesses like this one — a healthy REIT, utility, pipeline, BDC/fund or holding company can score low for reasons that aren't weakness. See the sector lens above for the metrics that actually matter.
What if you assume different inputs?
Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount RateDiscount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 6.5%, the figure our model used for TRP. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.
Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $48.11. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.
6.5% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's BetaBeta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 0.35. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
8.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 6.5% — the beta-based rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
A full intrinsic value isn't shown for TRP because it's valued with a dividend-discount model this quick calculator doesn't replicate — see our published value above and the sector lens for the right metrics.
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
TRP is deeply overvalued by the market, trading at a +38.5% premium to the model's estimate of $48.11. The market appears to be paying up for perceived stability in its utility operations despite significant health signal concerns. The primary quantifiable risk is the negative net income, indicating a lack of profitability over the last five years.
As of 2 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Return to positive net income in upcoming reports
- Stabilization or reduction of long-term debt
- Any changes in regulatory environment impacting pipeline tariffs
Management & Leadership
François Poirier has served as the President and CEO of TC Energy since January 2021, overseeing the company's extensive energy infrastructure network. He previously held various leadership roles within the company, including Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice-President, Corporate Development.
What They Make
TC Energy operates a vast network of natural gas pipelines, oil pipelines, and power generation facilities across North America, serving utility companies, industrial customers, and energy producers.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
The market prices TRP at a +38.5% premium, likely due to its perception as a stable utility with essential infrastructure assets. This optimism persists despite health signals showing negative net income and a low franchise/durability score of 0/5, suggesting the market is overlooking fundamental profitability and competitive concerns.
Three Scenarios, Weighted
| Scenario | IV | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $40.84 | -36.2% | 40% |
| Base | $48.96 | -23.5% | 35% |
| Optimistic | $58.56 | -8.5% | 25% |
| Weighted | $48.11 | -24.9% | 100% |
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company's dividend data is sparse, with the model assuming a 3% yield, indicating a focus on returning capital to shareholders through distributions.
Dividend Discount Medium
Utility (Gas Utilities): dividend discount model - growth is regulated and yield is the primary driver.
Show advanced inputs
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project production volumes, realized commodity prices and unit cash costs independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Net income has been negative in the latest period and profitable in 0/5 years, indicating an inconsistent profitability trend.
Geography & Markets
TC Energy operates extensively across North America, with significant pipeline and energy infrastructure assets in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)49.1NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (2 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (2)
- No dividend data. Assuming 3% yield.
- Dividend data sparse; DDM using estimated yield. Confidence reduced.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From TC ENERGY CORP's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2024 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2023 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2022 | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2021 | — | — | $0.00 |
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | — |
| Total Liabilities | — |
| Equity | — |
| Total Debt | 2.8B |