Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Waste Connections, Inc.
▾ What's in the 50/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend, DCF applicability). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read WCN (regulated utility)
A regulator sets what a utility can earn, so its value tracks book value, dividend yield and payout — not a free-market DCF.
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Utility lens (P/B, yield, payout) ↓
These are the metrics utility-fund managers actually use.
Is now a good time to buy WCN?
Macro: Neutral / mid-cycleWCN trades at $166.29 vs an estimated intrinsic value of $44.91 — a +270.3% premium to model IV.
Not investment advice. The model can be wrong. Verify the assumptions in the sections below and consider consulting a licensed advisor for significant decisions.
Football field: where does the price sit?
Different valuation methods produce different fair-value ranges depending on assumptions. Plotting them together lets you see at a glance whether the current price is reasonable across approaches, or only one specific lens.
Industry multiples sourced from: sector: Utilities. See the Peer Basket section below for the peer comparison and its limited-comparables caveat.
⚠ We found only 2 genuine same-industry (Refuse Systems) comparables — fewer than the 4 we require for a reliable median. The 8 names in the table below therefore include 6 broader Utilities names marked fallback, whose business models and margins differ — which is why any median below is computed over that wider set, not over true comparables. So we do not derive a peer-implied share value here. Read the multiples as rough context only.
How does WCN stack up against its closest peers?
Ideally we compare WCN only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
1.0x / 3.4x / 4.8x |
| EV / EBITEV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise. Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress Full explanation → |
3.9x / 12.8x / 22.8x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSG | REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC. | Refuse Systems | $61.7B | 4.5x | — | 22.8x | 1.2% |
| WM | WASTE MANAGEMENT INC | Refuse Systems | $84.9B | 3.4x | — | 19.9x | 1.6% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | Gas Utilities ·fallback | $47.1B | 2.4x | — | 5.2x | 0.9% |
| PPLC | PPL Corp | Electric Utilities ·fallback | $36.0B | 6.0x | — | 25.8x | 2.2% |
| VG | Venture Global, Inc. | Gas Utilities ·fallback | $31.7B | 4.8x | — | 12.8x | 1.5% |
| SOJF | SOUTHERN CO | Electric Utilities ·fallback | $28.5B | 1.0x | — | 3.9x | 10.8% |
| TRP | TC ENERGY CORP | Gas Utilities ·fallback | $69.4B | — | — | — | 3.0% |
| SOJC | SOUTHERN CO | Electric Utilities ·fallback | $26.3B | 0.9x | — | 3.6x | 11.7% |
Regulated rate-base economics
Regulated utilities earn a state-approved "allowed ROE" (typically 9-10%) on their regulated rate base. The business is engineered for stability — DCF can't price that properly because earnings are administratively set, not free-market. The right metrics are P/B, dividend yield, and payout ratio — what most utility-fund managers actually look at.
Note: For utilities, ROE comfortably above the regulator's allowed ROE (~9-10%) is the sign of operational efficiency. Big premium to book (>2×) generally requires accelerating rate-base growth — common drivers: grid modernization, renewables transition, or population/load growth in service area.
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
Regulated utilities carry high leverage backed by long-life assets and regulator-set rate-base returns — Altman Z flags both as distress signals even when the business is stable. See the Utility Lens above for the metrics that matter (P/B, dividend yield, payout ratio).
Why it matters: High score = fundamentals improving. Low score = deteriorating. Especially powerful for filtering cheap stocks: cheap + high F-score historically outperforms; cheap + low F-score is often a value trap.
Reference: 7–9 = strong · 4–6 = mediocre · 0–3 = weak
Full explanation →
Piotroski F's checks (operating cash flow, gross-margin trend, current ratio, asset turnover) assume an industrial cost structure, so they misread asset-heavy or financial businesses like this one — a healthy REIT, utility, pipeline, BDC/fund or holding company can score low for reasons that aren't weakness. See the sector lens above for the metrics that actually matter.
What if you assume different inputs?
Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount RateDiscount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 6.5%, the figure our model used for WCN. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.
Note: at default inputs this calculator mirrors the headline model's three-scenario weighting (conservative/base/optimistic, 40/35/25), so its opening value should land close to the headline intrinsic value of $44.91. A small gap is rounding; a large one would be a data problem — and we check for it below.
6.5% — beta-based (CAPM), from this stock's BetaBeta — How much the stock moves when the overall market moves. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = moves 50% more than the market.
Why it matters: Higher beta = more volatile = should demand higher discount rate. Low beta stocks (utilities, consumer staples) move less.
Reference: Most stocks 0.5–1.5 · Defensives ~0.3 · High-vol tech ~1.5–2.0
Full explanation → of 0.35. The safe Treasury rate plus a premium scaled by how much more (or less) volatile the stock is than the market.
7.0% — sector/quality tier. A simpler hurdle set by industry and business durability: lower for stable, wide-moat companies; higher for speculative or micro-caps.
The headline value and this calculator start at 6.5% — the beta-based rate. Drag the slider to the other rate to see the full range.
A full intrinsic value isn't shown for WCN because it's valued with a dividend-discount model this quick calculator doesn't replicate — see our published value above and the sector lens for the right metrics.
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⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Waste Connections, Inc. is deeply overvalued, with the market price of $149.02 representing a +231.8% premium over the model's intrinsic valueIntrinsic Value — Our DCF model's estimate of what each share is mathematically worth based on projected cash flows.
Why it matters: Compare to current price. Below IV = potentially undervalued. Above IV = priced for growth that must actually happen.
Reference: Model-derived; quality depends on data and assumptions.
Full explanation → of $44.91. The market appears to be paying up for the company's consistent revenue growth (11.4%/yr over 4 years) and positive operating cash flow, despite a low current ratio of 0.62. The primary quantifiable risk is the current ratio, indicating current liabilities exceed liquid assets.
As of 2 months ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Improvement in the current ratio above 1.0
- Continued double-digit revenue growth rates
- Further reduction in long-term debt
The trend, in plain numbers (2024 → 2025)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +6% to $9.47B.
- Free cash flow rose to $1.16B.
- Net income grew +74% to $1.08B.
Nothing clearly worsening year-over-year.
Management & Leadership
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt has served as CEO of Waste Connections, Inc. since its founding in 1997, also holding the Chairman of the Board position. He has overseen the company's significant expansion in the waste management sector.
What They Make
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. Their customers include residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal entities.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
The market prices WCN at a significant premium of +231.8% to the model, likely due to its consistent revenue growth of 11.4%/yr over four years and its track record of positive net income and operating cash flow for five consecutive years. The market may be assigning value to potential future market consolidation or efficiency gains in waste management, which is not in the model.
Three Scenarios, Weighted
| Scenario | IV | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $38.08 | -77.1% | 40% |
| Base | $45.71 | -72.5% | 35% |
| Optimistic | $54.72 | -67.1% | 25% |
| Weighted | $44.91 | -73.0% | 100% |
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company pays an estimated dividend of $1.29/yr, derived from its cash-flow statement.
Dividend Discount Medium
Utility (Refuse Systems): dividend discount model - growth is regulated and yield is the primary driver.
Show advanced inputs
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project rate-base growth, allowed ROE and dividend growth independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been consistently growing at 11.4%/yr over the last four years.
Geography & Markets
Waste Connections, Inc. primarily operates across North America, with significant operations in both the United States and Canada, though specific geographic mix percentages are not available in the provided data.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)33.2NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (3)
- Dividend derived from cash-flow statement ($1.29/yr; SEC has no per-share dividend feed).
- Price is 3.3x model IV - market may be pricing optionality, narrative catalysts, or margin expansion beyond what trailing cash flows support.
- Dividend data sparse; DDM using estimated yield. Confidence reduced.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Waste Connections, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.5B | 1.1B | $4.17 |
| 2024 | 8.9B | 617.6M | $2.39 |
| 2023 | 8.0B | 762.8M | $2.95 |
| 2022 | 7.2B | 835.7M | $3.24 |
| 2021 | 6.2B | 618.0M | $2.36 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC & adj. | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.4B | 1.2B | 79.4M | 1.2B |
| 2024 | 2.2B | 1.1B | 77.9M | 1.1B |
| 2023 | 2.1B | 934.0M | 70.4M | 1.1B |
| 2022 | 2.0B | 912.7M | 63.5M | 1.0B |
| 2021 | 1.7B | 744.3M | 58.2M | 895.7M |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 2.4B − 1.2B − 79.4M (SBC & adj.) = 1.2B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a TTM dividend, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 21.1B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.9B |
| Equity | 8.2B |