Wise Group plc (WSE) Stock Analysis
Wise Group plc
▾ What's in the 31/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.
How to read WSE
We are not publishing an intrinsic value for this one — the section below says exactly why. Everything on this page that comes straight from the filings and the tape is still here; treat the missing valuation as a known gap, not as a verdict on the business.
-
1
Reported earnings & margins ↓
What the company actually reported — unaffected by the valuation being held.
-
2
Balance sheet & book value ↓
Assets, liabilities and equity as filed.
-
3
Who's selling & betting against it ↓
Insider and short-interest behaviour needs no valuation model.
Our models couldn't converge on an intrinsic value for WSE they trust, given its current filings. We show no number rather than a misleading one.
What to use instead: Use the Reverse-DCF, the peer multiples in the Football Field, and the financial statements below as your signal.
This note is only about the single DCF fair-value number — WSE's full financial statements, health scores, and written analysis are all below.
How does WSE stack up against its closest peers?
We take the 8 same-industry companies most similar to WSE (similar size) and check what investors are paying for each dollar of their revenue (or profits). If WSE is much more expensive on the same yardstick, that's a red flag — unless you have a specific reason it deserves a premium. For a leveraged business, EV/EBIT and FCF yield (both in the table) are usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.
▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?
EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.
EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).
p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.
| EV / SalesEV / Sales — For every $1 of yearly revenue, this is how many dollars investors pay to own the whole business (including debt). Why it matters: Works for pre-profit growth companies where P/E and FCF don't apply. The most apples-to-apples cross-company multiple because it ignores accounting choices. Reference: 1–3x for mature companies · 4–10x for software/SaaS · 10–20x for hypergrowth · >20x is rare and demanding Full explanation → |
3.0x / 4.5x / 6.4x |
| EV / Gross ProfitEV / Gross Profit — Enterprise value divided by gross profit — the multiple paid for what each dollar of sales contributes after direct costs. Why it matters: More refined than EV/Sales for high-margin businesses (software, marketplaces) where gross margin is the real economic engine. Reference: 8–15x for SaaS · 15–25x for hypergrowth software · >30x demanding Full explanation → |
4.2x / 5.4x / 9.2x |
| EV / EBITEV / EBITDA — Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. Why it matters: A classic "what would a private buyer pay" multiple — used in M&A. Strips out tax and capital-structure noise. Reference: 8–12x for mature businesses · 15–25x for growth · Below 5x often signals distress Full explanation → |
14.9x / 28.5x / 33.0x |
Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 8 same-industry peers; implausible multiples excluded.
⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.
▾ View peer list (8)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Mcap | EV/Sales | EV/GP | EV/EBIT | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z | ZILLOW GROUP, INC. | Business Services | $11.6B | 4.5x | 6.1x | — | 3.8% |
| KSPI | Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | Business Services | $17.2B | — | — | — | — |
| RBA | RB GLOBAL INC. | Business Services | $19.8B | 4.8x | — | 31.0x | 3.3% |
| HQY | HEALTHEQUITY, INC. | Business Services | $7.4B | 6.4x | 9.2x | 26.0x | 5.0% |
| ETSY | ETSY INC | Business Services | $6.4B | 3.0x | 4.2x | 33.0x | 5.1% |
| TCOM | Trip.com Group Ltd | Business Services | $30.8B | 3.8x | 4.7x | 14.9x | 6.7% |
| PSFE | Paysafe Ltd | Business Services | $31.5B | 20.1x | — | 474.5x | 0.6% |
| LYFT | Lyft, Inc. | Business Services | $5.4B | 1.1x | — | — | 14.4% |
Quality & solvency checks
Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. The classic manufacturing-calibrated model also fits asset-light businesses like this one poorly. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
-
✓ Positive net incomeNet income $498.7M in the latest year.
-
✓ Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow $7,553.9M (was $5,719.5M the prior year).
-
✓ Cash flow backs up reported profitOperating cash flow $7,553.9M vs net income $498.7M.
-
✗ Return on assets improvingReturn on assets 1.5% vs 2.2% a year ago.Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
-
✗ Debt load (vs assets)Long-term debt is 1.0% of assets vs 0.0% a year ago ($328.7M now).Why this matters: Rising debt relative to assets means more risk and more cash going to interest instead of shareholders. Falling debt is a sign of strengthening.
-
✗ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)Current ratio 1.07x vs 1.07x a year ago.Why this matters: The current ratio compares assets it can turn to cash within a year against bills due within a year. Below 1.0 means it may struggle to cover near-term obligations.
-
✓ Share count (dilution)Share count declined 1.5% (1,045.7M → 1,029.7M year-over-year), so the no-dilution check passed. (This 1-year change differs from the ~4%/yr multi-year buyback CAGR the DCF cites.)
-
· Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
-
✗ Sales per asset (asset turnover)Asset turnover 0.06x vs 0.06x a year ago.Why this matters: Asset turnover measures how much revenue each dollar of assets generates. Rising = more productive use of the asset base.
Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.
What if you assume different inputs?
Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount RateDiscount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for WSE. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.
Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.
A full intrinsic value isn't shown for WSE because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.
—
⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
A standard discounted cash flowDCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
Full explanation → (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for Wise Group plc due to inconsistencies where operating cash flow materially exceeds revenue, making reliable cash flow projections difficult. Investors are likely focused on the company's strong revenue growth of 19.6% per year over the last two years and its consistent profitability. To value WSE, one would need clarified and consistent financial statements that accurately reflect consolidated revenue and cash flow. The biggest risk to our assumptions is that the reported operating cash flow, which is 14.9x net income, is not sustainable or accurately represented, leading to an overestimation of cash generation.
As of 13 days ago
Anatomy of a share
What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.
What's free cash flow / what do these mean?
Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.
Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.
Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.
Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.
What you actually need to decide
Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.
- Clarification and consistency in reported revenue and operating cash flow
- Continued growth in active customer numbers and transaction volumes
- Stabilization or reduction of long-term debt
The trend, in plain numbers (2025 → 2026)
Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.
- Revenue grew +22% to $1.89B.
- Free cash flow rose to $7.44B.
- Net income fell -9% to $498.7M.
Management & Leadership
Kristo Käärmann is the CEO and co-founder of Wise Group plc, a position he has held since the company's inception. Taavet Hinrikus is the co-founder and Chairman. They have led the company through its growth phase, focusing on international money transfers.
What They Make
Wise Group plc provides international money transfer services, allowing individuals and businesses to send and receive money across borders with transparent fees and real exchange rates. Their paying customers are individuals and businesses making these cross-border transactions.
End Markets
Revenue Drivers
Why Is It Priced Like This?
Why Customers Pay
What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.
The market is likely pricing Wise Group plc based on its strong revenue growth, which has been 19.6% annually over the last two years, and its consistent profitability, having been profitable for three consecutive years. Investors are betting on the company's ability to continue expanding its user base and transaction volumes in the global remittance and cross-border payment market, despite the current financial statement inconsistencies.
Business Model & Valuation
How They Make Money
The company funds itself through its positive operating cash flow and has seen long-term debt rising from $0M to $329M, while also retiring approximately 0.9% of its shares annually.
Free Cash Flow DCF
Owner-earnings FCF DCF: positive free cash flow (operating cash flow − capex − stock-based comp) in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation.
▾ Exactly how the $— normalized FCF/share is computed
2026: 7.4B
2025: 5.6B
2024: 4.0B
Sum ÷ 3 = 5.7B average total FCF
÷ 1,029.7M current diluted shares = $5.51/share
We divide the multi-year total-FCF average by today's share count (not each year's own share count), so the buyback effect is captured once, via the current denominator.
Show advanced inputs
| RevenueGrowth | 19.6% |
| EpsGrowth | 0.7% |
| HistoricalFcfGrowth | 36.9% |
| SectorDefault | 12.0% |
| SectorDefaultSource | Technology sector default |
| BestEstimate | 17.3% |
| Method | blend(70% revenue_cagr, 30% sector) (buybacks ~0.9%/yr: per-share support, not added to growth) |
| GrowthBasis | total |
| BusinessGrowth | 17.3% |
| BuybackRate | 0.9% |
What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project product, services and recurring/cloud lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.
Maturity & Competitive Position
Moat Signals
Revenue has been growing at 19.6% per year over the last two years, from $1323M to $1894M.
Geography & Markets
Wise Group plc is headquartered in the UK but operates globally, facilitating transfers to and from numerous countries across Europe, North America, Asia, and other regions. Exact geographic revenue mix is not available from current data sources.
Geographic Risks
Market Signals
These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.
Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
Full explanation → (14)52.5NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
Full explanation →BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.
QUALITY
Data Quality & Risk Flags (5 notes — click to expand/collapse)
Guardrail Notes (5)
- Latest FCF ($7.4B, net of stock-based compensation) is 14.9x net income ($0.5B) - using 3yr average FCF to reduce one-time inflation.
- The company retires ~0.9%/yr of its shares (a multi-year CAGR), but we do NOT add that to the growth rate: buybacks at fair value are value-neutral per current share, and adding them would double-count the same cash the DCF already values. We also do not model future buyback ACCRETION: repurchases below intrinsic value CAN raise value per remaining share, but only if they continue, are funded after debt service, and are made below intrinsic value — excluding that potential benefit keeps the model conservative.
- Statement inconsistency: operating cash flow materially exceeds revenue in 3 of the last 3 years — a real income statement cannot do this persistently. Revenue is likely a segment or partial concept, not the consolidated total. Valuation held until the data is repaired.
- VALUATION HELD (STATEMENT_INCONSISTENT): per-share values suppressed due to an internally inconsistent income statement (revenue likely under-scoped).
- Extreme valuation gap (P/IV null): result may be dominated by model assumptions, share count issues, or sector-specific dynamics. Treat as low confidence.
FINANCIALS
Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)
From Wise Group plc's SEC filings (EDGAR).
Income (5yr)
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9B | 498.7M | $48.43 |
| 2025 | 1.5B | 550.3M | $52.63 |
| 2024 | 1.3B | 501.5M | $47.81 |
Cash Flow (5yr)
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | − SBC | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.6B | 19.6M | 95.5M | 7.4B |
| 2025 | 5.7B | 44.1M | 74.6M | 5.6B |
| 2024 | 4.1B | 13.4M | 91.1M | 4.0B |
How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 7.6B − 19.6M − 95.5M (stock-based comp) = 7.4B. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses, though the DCF's starting value is a trailing 3-year average, not this single year.
Balance Sheet
| Total Assets | 33.3B |
| Total Liabilities | 31.3B |
| Equity | 1.9B |
| Total Debt | 328.7M |
