XBP Global Holdings, Inc. (XBPEW) Stock Analysis

Price updated today · SEC data refreshed 2 months ago ⓘ · Not investment advice

XBP Global Holdings, Inc.

XBPEW Technology Business Services📄 SEC filings ↗
Speculative
Long-term trend (200d) 20% below 200-day Risk 41/100 Elevated
▾ What's in the 41/100 risk score? (higher = riskier)
Fundamental health (43%) 46/100 → +19.7
leverage 62/100 · FCF trend 25/100 · Altman Z not scored — input unavailable (see Financial Health)
Smart money (short interest + insider buying) (31%) 44/100 → +13.8
Macro backdrop (VIX, curve, credit, fear/greed + week-over-week momentum) (26%) 28/100 → +7.2
Total41/100

Contributions (weight × component score) sum to the total. This near-term score now includes fundamental health (leverage, FCF trend). It excludes the the Altman Z score, whose retained-earnings input this filer does not report separately, which relies on a proxied (estimated) input. See the Financial Health section for the full balance-sheet read.

💵 Price $0.04 · today 📄 Financials SEC EDGAR · refreshed 2 months ago
📍 START HERE

How to read XBPEW (speculative micro-cap)

No model can pin a precise fair value on a company this small — but that does not mean there is nothing to learn. The useful questions are what the price is betting on, and whether the company can survive long enough to deliver it.

Where to start — the sections that matter most for this stock
  1. 1 Reverse-DCF — what growth the price assumes ↓
    The single most useful number here: it backs out the growth the market is paying for. If that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals.
  2. 2 Cash runway ↓
    A pre-profit micro-cap lives or dies on whether it can fund itself to profitability before running out of money and diluting you.
  3. 3 The raw financial statements + the 10-K ↓
    At this scale, the actual numbers, insider ownership, and share-count trend tell you more than any ratio.
Or — what are you trying to decide?
One rule first: never trade out of fear — and that includes the fear of missing out. A stock up 10% a day for three days is excitement, not data. If you can't point to the evidence behind a trade, you're more likely to lose. So whichever of these you are, check the data below before you act.
🚀
"It's surging — should I chase it?"
The momentum / FOMO trade. Before you chase, see whether the people who know it best are quietly selling into the rally.
🏷️
"Is it a cheap bargain?"
The deep-value trade. How far below assets and our value it trades — and whether it's cheap for a reason.
ⓘ Using the right valuation lens for this business type

Standard DCF doesn't fit XBPEW well — but that's expected for this kind of business. The Rule of 40 (Pre-Profit Growth) Lens below uses the metrics actually used by analysts who value business services. Reverse DCF + Football Field also work as cross-checks.

ⓘ Why does XBPEW trade at $0.04?

XBP Global Holdings, Inc. has 30.2 million shares outstanding. At $0.04 per share, the market values all outstanding XBPEW equity at $1 million. That's market capitalization, not enterprise value — enterprise value also accounts for debt and cash — and it matters here because XBPEW carries substantial debt. The share price by itself tells you almost nothing — a company can pick any share price by splitting or issuing more shares. What matters is the total value (Market Cap?Market Cap — The total dollar value the market is assigning to the entire company.
Why it matters: This is the number that actually matters when comparing companies. Two companies with the same business but different share counts have the same market cap.
Reference: Mega cap >$200B · Large $10–200B · Mid $2–10B · Small $300M–2B · Micro <$300M
Full explanation →) compared to what the business actually produces. This page values XBPEW in Per Share?Per Share — A company-level figure divided by total shares — what one share represents.
Why it matters: Per-share metrics are the only way to fairly compare two companies with different share counts.
Full explanation → economics — what each share represents of the underlying business. Play with the share-price calculator on the homepage →

Loading insider & short-seller data…
⚠️ BUSINESS-MODEL ADVISORY — SPECULATIVE NANO / MICRO-CAP

How to read a company this small

XBPEW is too small and/or too volatile for the valuation lenses we use on larger, more stable companies. The numbers shown below should be taken as rough orientation only.

✅ What actually drives value for this kind of company
  • Market cap $1.2M — nano-cap territory (below $50M)
❌ Metrics that DON'T apply (ignore these even if you see them below)

Growth percentages on tiny revenue bases (1000% going from $200K to $2M is not predictive). P/E and ROE swing wildly with small earnings changes. Peer comparisons fail because there often aren't comparable companies at this scale.

📚 Where to actually look

Start with the Reverse-DCF above — it backs out the growth the price is betting on; if that figure is "historically unprecedented," the price is running on hype, not fundamentals. Then the cash runway (can it fund itself to profitability before diluting you?). Then the raw Financials table and the 10-K on SEC EDGAR — at this scale, insider ownership and the share-count trend often matter more than any ratio.

Classified as Speculative Nano / Micro-cap (confidence 80%). Disagree? An admin can override via the post edit screen.

PEER BASKET — LIMITED COMPARABLES

⚠ Genuine comparables are scarce at this size, so peer multiples are unreliable here. Treat as rough context only — see 📍 What to focus on above.

How does XBPEW stack up against its closest peers?

Ideally we compare XBPEW only to same-industry peers, but too few exist in our universe right now, so the basket below mixes in broader-sector names. Treat the multiples as rough context, not a valuation. For a leveraged business, FCF yield (in the table) is usually more reliable than EV/Sales, because revenue multiples ignore differences in margins and debt.

▾ What's "EV / Sales" in plain English?

EV (Enterprise Value) = market cap + total debt − cash. It's "what you'd pay to buy the entire company outright" — you pay the market cap to shareholders and take over their debt, but you keep their cash. EV is fairer than market cap alone because it includes the debt the new owner inherits.

EV / Sales = EV ÷ annual revenue. So "2.5×" means investors pay $2.50 of enterprise value per $1 of yearly sales. Higher = market is paying more per dollar of sales (usually because they expect future growth or fat margins).

p25 / median / p75 are the 25th, 50th (middle), and 75th percentile of the peers' multiples. Half the peers fall between p25 and p75. The median (p50) is the typical peer — that's the benchmark we compare to.

What peers trade at (p25 / median / p75)

Bold middle number = median peer. Half the peers trade above it, half below. Computed over 2 peers (broad — see caveat); implausible multiples excluded.

What XBPEW would be worth at the median peer's multiple
We're not showing a peer-implied price for XBPEW: with only 0 genuine same-industry comparables, a median built partly from broader-sector names would be misleading. Lean on the DCF above; use the multiples table only as loose context.

⚠️ Important caveat: peer multiples only work if the peers are genuinely comparable. Always check the peer list below — if the auto-picker grabbed micro-caps or unrelated businesses, the comparison is noise. A medical-device giant priced against tiny biotech startups won't produce a useful signal.

▾ View peer list (2)
Ticker Company Industry Mcap EV/Sales EV/GP EV/EBIT FCF Yield
WAI Top KingWin Ltd Business Services ·fallback $2M 0.2x 2.5x — 56.5%
XHLD TEN Holdings, Inc. Business Services ·fallback $6M 1.8x 2.3x — 2.6%
FINANCIAL HEALTH SCREENS

Quality & solvency checks

Cheap stocks can be cheap for a reason. These screens warn when a low valuation comes paired with structural fragility.

Altman Z-Score?Altman Z-Score — A bankruptcy-risk score combining 5 financial ratios into one number. Predictive of bankruptcy within 2 years.
Why it matters: Cheap-looking stocks (low P/E or P/B) often have low Z-scores because the market knows the company is dying. Z-score warns you before you fall into a value trap.
Reference: > 3.0 = safe zone · 1.81–3.0 = grey zone · < 1.81 = distress zone
Full explanation →
n/a
Not reliably computable

We can't produce a trustworthy Altman Z here: retained earnings weren't separately reported in our data, so a core input would have to be fabricated. Rather than show a categorical "distress" verdict from an invented number, we mark it unavailable. The classic manufacturing-calibrated model also fits asset-light businesses like this one poorly. Judge financial health from the leverage, cash position, and the measurable Piotroski checks instead.

Piotroski checks
4 passed · 3 failed · 2 n/a
Partial result, not a standard F-score: 4 of 7 measurable checks passed. 2 of the 9 standard checks couldn't be measured, so this is scored out of 7, not 9 — it isn't comparable to a published F-score.
▾ The checks — what passed, what didn't (and what we couldn't measure)
  • ✗ Positive net income
    Net income -$215.2M in the latest year.
    Why this matters: Does the company actually earn a profit? Sustained losses eventually force it to raise money — diluting you — or take on debt.
  • ✓ Positive operating cash flow
    Operating cash flow $23.3M (was -$1.5M the prior year).
  • ✓ Cash flow backs up reported profit
    Operating cash flow $23.3M vs net income -$215.2M.
  • ✗ Return on assets improving
    Return on assets -23.8% vs -2.8% a year ago.
    Why this matters: Is the company squeezing more profit out of each dollar of assets than last year? Rising = getting more efficient; falling = the opposite.
  • ✓ Debt load (vs assets)
    Long-term debt is 43.0% of assets vs 367.5% a year ago ($387.6M now).
  • ✓ Short-term liquidity (current ratio)
    Current ratio 0.74x vs 0.07x a year ago — below 1.0, a caution flag.
  • ✗ Share count (dilution)
    Share count rose 33.9% (22.5M → 30.2M year-over-year).
    Why this matters: Issuing lots of new shares splits the pie into more pieces, shrinking your slice. Stable or falling share count protects existing owners.
  • · Pricing power (gross margin) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)
  • · Sales per asset (asset turnover) (n/a — data not reported; not scored)

Missing data is never counted as a pass or a fail — it's shown as n/a and excluded from the denominator. Each check compares the company against its own prior year.

INTERACTIVE — TWEAK YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

What if you assume different inputs?

Here's where we land — and what happens if you change the assumptions. Drag the sliders to set your own Discount Rate?Discount Rate — The annual return you demand for taking single-stock risk instead of buying a safe Treasury or index fund.
Why it matters: Higher discount rate = stricter valuation (a stock has to produce more cash to be worth holding). Lower = more generous.
Reference: 8–12% is standard · 9–10% matches S&P 500 historical return · Below 7% is illogical for single-stock risk
Full explanation → (the annual return you demand for single-stock risk) and terminal growth; the value updates live so you can see whether the stock looks cheaper or richer. The discount rate starts at 10.0%, the figure our model used for XBPEW. Open Advanced to also change beta, growth and the rate path.

Note: no headline intrinsic value is published for this stock (the valuation is held for a data-quality reason — see the notes above). The calculator below is a what-if tool: the values it produces are your assumptions played out, not our estimate.

4.5% (risk-free)9-10% normal18% (deep-risk)
0%2-3% (GDP)5% (rarely sustainable)

A full intrinsic value isn't shown for XBPEW because the valuation is currently held for a data-quality reason (see the guardrail notes above). The reverse-DCF reading still works — it needs only the price and cash flow — but we won't publish a forward value until the underlying data passes our checks.

For comparison — the revenue growth today's price already assumes
—
—

—

⚙ Advanced — tinker with every input (beta, growth, rate path, margin → full intrinsic value)
Where the discount rate comes from — discount rate = risk-free + beta × equity-risk-premium
What you'd earn risk-free from government bonds — the floor under every other rate. Slide it down to model the market expecting rate cuts (value rises); up for higher-for-longer.
The extra yearly return investors demand for owning stocks instead of safe bonds — the price of risk. History runs ~4.5–6.5%; we default to 5.5% (slightly conservative). It's an estimate, not a law — lower it if you think equities are less risky than that.
Inflation quietly eats returns: a 9% gain at 3% inflation is only ~6% in real purchasing power. The intrinsic value above is already in today's dollars (a nominal DCF cancels inflation out of both growth and the discount rate), so this doesn't change the value — it shows what's left of your return after the tax.
Higher beta → higher discount rate (sets the rate above). 1.0 = moves with the market.
What you think XBPEW can grow revenue for ~5 years, then fades to terminal.
For a pre-profit company: the % of revenue that eventually becomes free cash flow once mature. (Our published value uses the sector norm.)
All inputs start at the values our model used.

    Copy shareable link to this scenario →

    Price$0.04
    Model IVNot applicable — DCF couldn't price this stock. See Reverse DCF and Football Field below.

    A standard discounted cash flow?DCF — Discounted Cash Flow — sums up all future cash a business will produce, adjusted for the fact that future dollars are worth less than dollars today.
    Why it matters: It is the most fundamentally honest valuation method when applicable — but only works for companies with predictable, positive cash flow.
    Reference: Best for: mature, profitable businesses. Fails for: pre-profit growth, banks, REITs.
    Full explanation →     (DCF) valuation is not meaningful for XBP Global Holdings, Inc. due to extreme valuation flags and suppressed per-share data, indicating data or unit issues. The company has negative net income and a current ratio below 1, suggesting financial strain. Investors are likely focused on the potential for future operational improvements and resolution of data issues rather than current cash flow. The primary quantifiable risk is the rising long-term debt, which has increased from $19M to $388M.

    ⚠️ Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).

    As of 2 months ago

    ANATOMY

    Anatomy of a share

    What you're buying per share. Bars are at the same scale so you can see the relative size of revenue, costs, cash flow, and debt — not just read them in a table.

    XBPEW XBP Global Holdings, Inc. stock anatomy showing per-share revenue, operating expenses, free cash flow, and debt
    −24.7%
    loss
    Where each $1 of revenue goes
    For every $1 of revenue, XBPEW currently loses 24.7¢ — costs exceed sales. A money-losing business can still be a good investment if losses are shrinking toward profitability; check the trend, not just the snapshot.
    Net margin = net income ÷ revenue (most recent fiscal year).
    Plain English: $0/share buys $28.93 of revenue per share per year, generates $7.13 lost per share per year, and $0.51 of free cash flow per share. Each share carries $12.85 of debt.
    What's free cash flow / what do these mean?

    Revenue per share — how much the business earns from customers, divided by the number of shares outstanding. Top of the income statement.

    Earnings per share — profit left after operating costs, interest, and taxes, per share. Two versions appear on this page and are not interchangeable: GAAP diluted EPS uses the company's weighted-average diluted share count during the reporting period (this is the "earnings" in "price-to-earnings"); net income per current share divides annual net income by today's share count. They differ whenever the share count has changed.

    Owner-earnings free cash flow per share — the cash the business produces for shareholders. Savng's owner-earnings FCF subtracts capital expenditures and stock-based compensation from operating cash flow (SBC is a real dilution cost even though it's non-cash). This is deliberately more conservative than "standard" FCF, which subtracts only capital expenditures — so our figure is lower than the headline FCF you'll see elsewhere. FCF funds dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and acquisitions; a company can report positive earnings yet negative FCF.

    Debt per share — total interest-bearing borrowings divided by shares. High debt-per-share next to thin FCF-per-share is a fragility signal.

    THE KEY DEBATE

    What you actually need to decide

    Every stock price is a disagreement. Here's the single thing that must go right for the bulls, the single thing that breaks the thesis, and the concrete signposts to watch so you can update your view as real results arrive.

    🐂 The Bull Case
    Operating cash flow must consistently remain positive and grow to demonstrate a sustainable business model, moving beyond the current trend of being positive in only 2/4 years.
    🐻 The Bear Case
    The current ratio of 0.74, which is below 1, indicates that current liabilities exceed liquid assets, posing a significant liquidity risk if not improved.
    📌 Signposts to watch — update your view as these print
    • Improvement in the current ratio above 1.0
    • Consistent positive net income in future filings
    • Reduction in the rate of long-term debt accumulation
    MOMENTUM — WHAT'S GETTING BETTER & WORSE

    The trend, in plain numbers (2023 → 2024)

    Straight from the financial statements — no model, no opinion. For a small or unprofitable company, the direction of these numbers usually tells you more than any single valuation.

    ✅ Improving
    • Free cash flow turned positive at $15.4M.
    ⚠ Worsening
    • Still unprofitable at -$215.2M — loss widening.
    WHO

    Management & Leadership

    Limited executive data available. XBP Global Holdings, Inc. is a relatively obscure micro-cap company, and widely-known executive information is not readily available.

    WHAT

    What They Make

    XBP Global Holdings, Inc. operates in the business services sector, though specific products and customer base are not detailed in available public information.

    End Markets

    Business ServicesTechnology SolutionsEnterprise Clients

    Revenue Drivers

    Service contracts
    Project-based fees
    Consulting services
    Market Cap: 1.2MBeta: 0.60
    WHY

    Why Is It Priced Like This?

    Why Customers Pay

    Operational efficiency improvements
    Cost reduction solutions
    Specialized service delivery
    No discounted-cash-flow value for this filer We aren't publishing a discounted-cash-flow value here: the model's output failed our plausibility checks, so showing it would imply more precision than we have.

    What we use instead: earnings (P/E, EV/EBIT), book value (P/B) — computed from the figures this company does report, shown in the sections below. Those numbers are unaffected by the missing cash-flow data.

    The market's pricing for XBPEW is likely driven by speculative interest in its future potential, given its micro-cap status and the extreme valuation flags. The company's negative net income and current ratio below 1 suggest that current financial health is not the primary driver, but rather a bet on a turnaround or resolution of underlying data issues that currently suppress per-share values.

    HOW

    Business Model & Valuation

    How They Make Money

    Service subscriptions
    Consulting engagements
    Technology platform fees

    The company funds itself primarily through equity raises or debt, as evidenced by rising long-term debt, and does not appear to pay dividends or conduct buybacks.

    Free Cash Flow DCF

    Standard FCF DCF: positive free cash flow in a sector suited for cash-flow-based valuation. FCF negative in 2/4 years.

    Show advanced inputs
    HistoricalFcfGrowth3.4247
    SectorDefault12.0%
    BestEstimate12.0%
    Methodsector_default
    GrowthBasistotal

    What this model does NOT do: this is a consolidated owner-earnings FCF model. Standalone segment assumptions: none. It does not project product, services and recurring/cloud lines independently; their combined effect is embedded in the historical revenue and cash-flow trend the model extrapolates. The calculator above can only approximate a segment's impact through the single consolidated growth rate — it cannot model any one line separately. For a true segment-level view, build a separate model from the company's segment disclosures.

    WHEN

    Maturity & Competitive Position

    Growth stage

    Moat Signals

    Proprietary technology
    Customer relationships
    Specialized expertise

    Net income has been negative in the latest period and profitable in 0/4 years, while operating cash flow was positive in the latest period and 2/4 years.

    WHERE

    Geography & Markets

    Geographic mix data is not available from current data sources. The company's operations are likely concentrated in a specific region, but details are not publicly disclosed.

    Geographic Risks

    Concentration risk due to unknown geographic spread
    Liquidity risk from current ratio below 1
    SIGNALS

    Market Signals

    These are timing signals, not value signals — they describe the stock's recent price behavior, not what the business is worth. Use them for the "the thesis looks good, but is now the moment?" question. Each tile below explains what it's saying.

    Model neutral, tape neutral - aligned.
    RSI?RSI — Relative Strength Index — a 0-100 momentum gauge. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold.
    Why it matters: Short-term contrarian indicator. Extreme readings often precede mean reversion, though not always.
    Reference: 30–70 normal · >70 overbought · <30 oversold
    Full explanation →     (14)    41.0NeutralMomentum is balanced — neither overbought nor oversold.
    MACD?MACD — Moving Average Convergence Divergence — compares a fast and a slow price trend to gauge momentum direction.
    Why it matters: When the fast line crosses above the slow line, short-term momentum is turning up; below, turning down. A timing cue, not a value signal.
    Reference: Line above signal = bullish momentum · below = bearish
    Full explanation →    BearishLine below signalThe fast trend is below the slow trend — short-term momentum is currently downward.
    50-Day Average$0.06Price below (-33.2%)Price below its 50-day average = near-term downtrend.
    200-Day Average$0.05Price belowThe 200-day line is the long-term trend divider — above it is generally considered a bull market for the stock.
    50 vs 200 CrossGolden50-day above 200-dayA "golden cross" — the medium trend has overtaken the long trend (often read as bullish).

    Technicals describe price, not the business. A great company can have a "bearish" tape (a buying chance) and a weak one a "bullish" tape (a trap). Pair these with the valuation and health sections above.

    QUALITY

    Data Quality & Risk Flags (3 notes — click to expand/collapse)
    Guardrail Notes (3)
    • Illiquidity discount 25% applied (small/micro-cap — harder to exit, demand a margin).
    • Extreme valuation (P/IV 0.0044x, IV $13.58 vs price $0.06); output dominated by data/units issue (often a multi-class share-count mismatch). Suppressed.
    • DATA UNAVAILABLE: per-share values suppressed due to missing/unreliable shares data.
    FINANCIALS

    Financial Statements (5-year tables — click to expand)

    From XBP Global Holdings, Inc.'s SEC filings (EDGAR).

    Income (5yr)

    YearRevenueNet IncomeEPS
    2024872.7M-215.2M$0.41
    2023—-11.0M$0.49
    2022—-7.9M$-0.36
    2021—-1.7M$-0.15

    Cash Flow (5yr)

    YearOperating CFCapEx− SBC & adj.Free Cash Flow
    2024 23.3M 6.3M 1.6M 15.4M
    2023 -1.5M 2.3M — -3.9M
    2022 9.9M 6.4M — 3.5M
    2021 — — — -146,555

    How we define FCF: operating cash flow − capital expenditure − stock-based compensation (owner-earnings basis — SBC is a real cost to shareholders even though it's non-cash). Latest year: 23.3M − 6.3M − 1.6M (SBC & adj.) = 15.4M. This is the same owner-earnings FCF definition the valuation model uses.

    Balance Sheet

    Total Assets902.1M
    Total Liabilities814.8M
    Equity87.3M
    Total Debt387.6M
    YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

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    PG
    Methodology by Pouyan Golshani, MD — founder of Gighz. Savng was built by a physician for busy professionals: every number on this page comes from SEC filings (EDGAR) and FINRA data through transparent, rules-based models — no analyst opinions, no hidden inputs. How we calculate every number →
    ⚠️ Not investment advice. Automated model outputs, last refreshed May 30, 2026 (the analysis-refresh date, not the latest filing period). All models have blind spots. Full disclaimer →
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