Fairly valued stocks right now

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

"Fairly Valued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.7% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-08). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.4% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).

S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.

Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book 1–2 (fair band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months

Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +0.6 pts (2,157 entries, 430 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 44% of entries beat the S&P; 16% beat it by 30 points or more; 31% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −1.1 pts.

+0.6 ptsvs S&P, average

44%beat the S&P

16%up 30+ pts vs S&P

31%down 20+ pts vs S&P

+3.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo

−17.8 pts 2019worst year to buy ?

0.5luck check ?

Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.4 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.2 pts 43% beat12 mo: +0.6 pts 44% beat24 mo: −4.3 pts 38% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.6 pts 32% beat

Market state at entry	Company-years	vs S&P 12 mo	vs small caps
Calm ◀ today	1,915	−0.7 pts t -0.7	+2.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)	242	+10.6 pts t 1.7	+10.0 pts

Sector (SEC group)	n	vs S&P 12 mo	3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing	677	−0.2 pts t -0.1	−7.1 pts
Energy	209	−4.5 pts t -1.1	−12.2 pts
Tech hardware & semis	175	+6.3 pts t 1.4	−3.9 pts
Services	170	+3.5 pts t 0.8	+0.7 pts
Utilities	169	−3.6 pts t -2.0	−4.4 pts
Retail & consumer	148	+5.4 pts t 1.2	−1.8 pts
Other	99	−3.6 pts t -0.8	−6.6 pts
Finance & real estate	83	−4.1 pts t -1.6	−7.9 pts
Construction	71	+4.1 pts t 0.8	−2.0 pts
Medical devices	66	+11.1 pts t 1.0	+1.6 pts
Biotech & pharma	47	+3.7 pts t 0.5	−12.0 pts
Food, drink & tobacco	47	+1.6 pts t 0.3	−4.1 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2017: +2.2 pts (n 917, t 1.8). From 2017: −0.6 pts (n 1,240, t -0.3). Flips sign between halves — treat as noise.

Year	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
vs S&P	+1 pts	+4 pts	−1 pts	+6 pts	+9 pts	−6 pts	−6 pts	+8 pts	−3 pts	−8 pts	−18 pts	+41 pts	+3 pts	+3 pts	−13 pts	−13 pts	+2 pts
n	3	40	82	162	172	155	157	146	128	132	149	147	115	143	144	145	137

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

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