← All verdicts
Verdict

Fairly valued stocks right now

Recomputed daily from each company's filings and price. Cheap can mean overlooked or it can mean trouble: open any card for the failure-warning checks and insider activity before deciding which.

Every analyzed stock in Fairly Valued — 556 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Fairly Valued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Fairly Valued" here means IRR within 5 points over Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.22% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.7% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-08). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.4% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR within 5 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +1.4 pts (966 entries, 349 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 46% of entries beat the S&P; 15% beat it by 30 points or more; 25% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.3 pts.
+1.4 ptsvs S&P, average
46%beat the S&P
15%up 30+ pts vs S&P
25%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+5.3 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−11.5 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
0.9luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.4 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.2 pts 45% beat12 mo: +1.4 pts 46% beat24 mo: −0.6 pts 40% beat3 yr, per yr: −4.7 pts 35% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today840+0.8 pts t 0.6+4.7 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)126+5.4 pts t 0.7+8.8 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing355−1.5 pts t -0.9−7.0 pts
Services132+0.3 pts t 0.1−1.0 pts
Retail & consumer117+1.8 pts t 0.5−5.6 pts
Tech hardware & semis78+7.3 pts t 0.8−0.5 pts
Other43+11.9 pts t 0.8−8.5 pts
Biotech & pharma40+15.0 pts t 0.8−6.0 pts
Finance & real estate33+2.1 pts t 0.4+0.9 pts
Medical devices31+5.8 pts t 1.3+4.4 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +3.2 pts (n 385, t 2.3). From 2018: +0.2 pts (n 581, t 0.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+5 pts+5 pts+7 pts+4 pts−3 pts+9 pts+2 pts−1 pts+0 pts+23 pts−5 pts+7 pts−10 pts−11 pts+0 pts
n32548738873758374686878807159

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

ABM
ABM INDUSTRIES INC /DE/
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.4%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR10.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.18
Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +11.1% · in line
FICO
FAIR ISAAC CORP
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR10.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.67
Market implies +11.0%/yr vs model +15.2% · below model
ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corp
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield4.4%
Growth used11.0%
10-yr IRR10.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.83
Market implies +6.2%/yr vs model +11.0% · below model
COR
Cencora, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.9%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR10.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +4.2%/yr vs model +9.0% · below model
ALLE
Allegion plc
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.4%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR10.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.83
Market implies +5.9%/yr vs model +11.1% · below model
E
ENI SPA
Equity-like
Energy
Yield6.8%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR10.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +3.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
NTCT
NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC
Equity-like
Technology
Yield6.4%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR10.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.93
Market implies +2.0%/yr vs model +4.3% · in line
FTV
Fortive Corp
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield6.0%
Growth used5.3%
10-yr IRR10.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.03
Market implies +5.0%/yr vs model +5.3% · in line
KGC
KINROSS GOLD CORP
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.2%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR10.0%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.81
Market implies +23.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
CAH
CARDINAL HEALTH INC
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.2%
Growth used7.7%
10-yr IRR10.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.53
Market implies -1.1%/yr vs model +7.7% · below model
TTEK
TETRA TECH INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.2%
Growth used11.7%
10-yr IRR9.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.57
Market implies +4.5%/yr vs model +11.7% · below model
UPS
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.6%
Growth used3.5%
10-yr IRR9.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.08
Market implies +4.2%/yr vs model +3.5% · in line
GMHS
Gamehaus Holdings Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield9.9%
Growth used-3.8%
10-yr IRR9.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.71
Market implies -1.6%/yr vs model -3.8% · in line
STRA
Strategic Education, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.3%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR9.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies -3.0%/yr vs model +4.3% · below model
APA
APA Corp
Equity-like
Energy
Yield6.4%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR9.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +3.8% · below model
AVTR
Avantor, Inc.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.7%
Growth used6.1%
10-yr IRR9.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.29
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +6.1% · in line
OIS
OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL, INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.9%
Growth used5.4%
10-yr IRR9.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies -4.5%/yr vs model +5.4% · below model
FLXS
FLEXSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.4%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR9.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.80
Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line
DINO
HF Sinclair Corp
Equity-like
Energy
Yield5.1%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR9.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.56
Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
TILE
INTERFACE INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.7%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR9.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.14
Market implies +8.0%/yr vs model +5.9% · in line
KR
KROGER CO
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.3%
Growth used4.0%
10-yr IRR9.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +0.9%/yr vs model +4.0% · below model
FOXA
Fox Corp
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield6.7%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR9.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.46
Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
GRC
GORMAN RUPP CO
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield3.9%
Growth used12.9%
10-yr IRR9.7%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.17
Market implies +11.0%/yr vs model +12.9% · in line
JJSF
J&J SNACK FOODS CORP
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.2%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR9.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.59
Market implies -0.4%/yr vs model +7.4% · below model
BH
Biglari Holdings Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.6%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR9.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.77
Market implies +0.8%/yr vs model +6.2% · below model
GTX
Garrett Motion Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR9.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.93
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
RUSHB
RUSH ENTERPRISES INC TX
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.2%
Growth used11.0%
10-yr IRR9.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.55
Market implies -1.4%/yr vs model +11.0% · below model
DAC
Danaos Corp
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.1%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR9.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.44
Market implies -3.6%/yr vs model +7.5% · below model
TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.2%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR9.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.90
Market implies +7.9%/yr vs model +7.0% · in line
VTMX
Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.
Equity-like
Real Estate
Yield5.1%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR9.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.64
Market implies +0.8%/yr vs model +7.4% · below model
WYY
WIDEPOINT CORP
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.6%
Growth used13.8%
10-yr IRR9.4%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.40
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +13.8% · below model
EGAN
EGAIN Corp
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.7%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR9.4%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.6%/yr vs model +9.0% · above model
JKHY
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES INC
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.4%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR9.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.55
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +9.9% · below model
TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield6.6%
Growth used2.8%
10-yr IRR9.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies -0.8%/yr vs model +2.8% · below model
AGCO
AGCO CORP /DE
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.3%
Growth used3.5%
10-yr IRR9.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.93
Market implies +0.5%/yr vs model +3.5% · in line
HSIC
HENRY SCHEIN INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.3%
Growth used6.7%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.84
Market implies +4.6%/yr vs model +6.7% · in line
MXC
MEXCO ENERGY CORP
Equity-like
Energy
Yield6.6%
Growth used2.8%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.08
Market implies -0.9%/yr vs model +2.8% · below model
BIIB
BIOGEN INC.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.4%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.83
Market implies +2.7%/yr vs model +6.2% · below model
AZZ
AZZ INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.6%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.60
Market implies -2.7%/yr vs model +5.6% · below model
TPR
TAPESTRY, INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.2%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +3.1%/yr vs model +7.0% · below model
TXT
TEXTRON INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.6%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +2.4%/yr vs model +5.6% · below model
HSY
HERSHEY CO
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.4%
Growth used6.3%
10-yr IRR9.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.67
Market implies -1.7%/yr vs model +6.3% · below model
ENS
EnerSys
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.8%
Growth used8.4%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.49
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +8.4% · in line
GTES
Gates Industrial Corp plc
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.4%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +6.2% · above model
FCN
FTI CONSULTING, INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.5%
Growth used9.2%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.90
Market implies +5.0%/yr vs model +9.2% · below model
AIN
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP /DE/
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.0%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.55
Market implies +10.8%/yr vs model +7.5% · above model
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.8%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.92
Market implies +0.6%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
OPXS
Optex Systems Holdings Inc
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.53
Market implies +4.1%/yr vs model +22.9% · below model
ALKS
Alkermes plc.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield4.6%
Growth used8.8%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.71
Market implies +2.6%/yr vs model +8.8% · below model
XPEL
XPEL, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield3.6%
Growth used13.3%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.00
Market implies +9.2%/yr vs model +13.3% · below model
PAGP
PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP
Equity-like
Energy
Yield6.3%
Growth used3.2%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.44
Market implies +7.8%/yr vs model +3.2% · above model
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.8%
Growth used4.6%
10-yr IRR9.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +4.6% · in line
NATH
NATHANS FAMOUS, INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.7%
Growth used8.3%
10-yr IRR9.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +8.3% · in line
CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield3.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR9.1%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +14.5%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
MKC
MCCORMICK & CO INC
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.4%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR9.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies -1.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
WTI
W&T OFFSHORE INC
Equity-like
Energy
Yield6.7%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR9.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies -3.4%/yr vs model +2.0% · below model
VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used11.4%
10-yr IRR9.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.63
Market implies +3.1%/yr vs model +11.4% · below model
GEHC
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc.
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.4%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.31
Market implies +9.1%/yr vs model +5.9% · above model
CLX
CLOROX CO /DE/
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.3%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.90
Market implies +0.9%/yr vs model +3.3% · in line
ACIW
ACI WORLDWIDE, INC.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.2%
Growth used10.3%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.92
Market implies +7.5%/yr vs model +10.3% · in line