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Verdict

Fairly valued stocks right now

Recomputed daily from each company's filings and price. Cheap can mean overlooked or it can mean trouble: open any card for the failure-warning checks and insider activity before deciding which.

Every analyzed stock in Fairly Valued — 556 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Fairly Valued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Fairly Valued" here means IRR within 5 points over Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.22% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.7% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-08). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.4% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR within 5 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +1.4 pts (966 entries, 349 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 46% of entries beat the S&P; 15% beat it by 30 points or more; 25% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.3 pts.
+1.4 ptsvs S&P, average
46%beat the S&P
15%up 30+ pts vs S&P
25%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+5.3 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−11.5 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
0.9luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.4 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.2 pts 45% beat12 mo: +1.4 pts 46% beat24 mo: −0.6 pts 40% beat3 yr, per yr: −4.7 pts 35% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today840+0.8 pts t 0.6+4.7 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)126+5.4 pts t 0.7+8.8 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing355−1.5 pts t -0.9−7.0 pts
Services132+0.3 pts t 0.1−1.0 pts
Retail & consumer117+1.8 pts t 0.5−5.6 pts
Tech hardware & semis78+7.3 pts t 0.8−0.5 pts
Other43+11.9 pts t 0.8−8.5 pts
Biotech & pharma40+15.0 pts t 0.8−6.0 pts
Finance & real estate33+2.1 pts t 0.4+0.9 pts
Medical devices31+5.8 pts t 1.3+4.4 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +3.2 pts (n 385, t 2.3). From 2018: +0.2 pts (n 581, t 0.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+5 pts+5 pts+7 pts+4 pts−3 pts+9 pts+2 pts−1 pts+0 pts+23 pts−5 pts+7 pts−10 pts−11 pts+0 pts
n32548738873758374686878807159

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

DSGX
DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP INC
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.9%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR5.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.89
Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model +12.7% · below model
III
Information Services Group Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield5.9%
Growth used0.3%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.83
Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +0.3% · above model
KRT
Karat Packaging Inc.
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.0%
Growth used6.9%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.94
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +6.9% · above model
DXPE
DXP ENTERPRISES INC
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield2.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.59
Market implies +29.7%/yr vs model +17.0% · above model
PUBM
PubMatic, Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.4%
Growth used10.1%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.88
Market implies +17.1%/yr vs model +10.1% · above model
WLY
JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.
Bond-like
Communication Services
Yield5.8%
Growth used0.6%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.35
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +0.6% · above model
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu Inc.
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.2%
Growth used2.3%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.02
Market implies +3.4%/yr vs model +2.3% · in line
HCSG
HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.8%
Growth used7.9%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.68
Market implies -0.2%/yr vs model +7.9% · below model
JOYY
JOYY Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used6.9%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.59
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +6.9% · above model
ALGN
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.9%
Growth used7.2%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.32
Market implies +16.6%/yr vs model +7.2% · above model
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.5%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR5.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.17
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +9.3% · in line
CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.2%
Growth used10.9%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +15.1%/yr vs model +10.9% · above model
BHP
BHP Group Ltd
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.1%
Growth used2.7%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +8.1%/yr vs model +2.7% · above model
METCB
Ramaco Resources, Inc.
Bond-like
Energy
Yield3.7%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.61
Market implies -4.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
TWIN
TWIN DISC INC
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.8%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.61
Market implies +12.0%/yr vs model +7.8% · above model
DCI
DONALDSON Co INC
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.7%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.58
Market implies +13.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
AVY
Avery Dennison Corp
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield4.9%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.32
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
OFLX
Omega Flex, Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield7.0%
Growth used-2.9%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.76
Market implies +7.1%/yr vs model -2.9% · above model
KAI
KADANT INC
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.2%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.8%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.06
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +7.6% · in line
DHT
DHT Holdings, Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.7%
Growth used8.4%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +14.0%/yr vs model +8.4% · above model
NABL
N-able, Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.1%
Growth used11.4%
10-yr IRR5.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.44
Market implies +14.6%/yr vs model +11.4% · above model
FTI
TechnipFMC plc
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.0%
Growth used11.9%
10-yr IRR5.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.62
Market implies +3.5%/yr vs model +11.9% · below model
CBRL
CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.2%
Growth used5.7%
10-yr IRR5.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies +3.2%/yr vs model +5.7% · in line
ELMD
Electromed, Inc.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield2.6%
Growth used14.0%
10-yr IRR5.5%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.54
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model +14.0% · in line
HAE
HAEMONETICS CORP
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.2%
Growth used10.4%
10-yr IRR5.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.40
Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model +10.4% · below model
SBC
SBC Medical Group Holdings Inc
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield4.3%
Growth used5.4%
10-yr IRR5.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.28
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +5.4% · in line
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Bond-like
Financial Services
Yield3.3%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR5.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.29
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +9.9% · in line
V
VISA INC.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.9%
Growth used12.5%
10-yr IRR5.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.05
Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +12.5% · in line
EXTR
EXTREME NETWORKS INC
Bond-like
Technology
Yield4.2%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR5.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.2%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
SPSC
SPS COMMERCE INC
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.6%
Growth used13.9%
10-yr IRR5.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.09
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +13.9% · in line
RCMT
RCM TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.2%
Growth used10.3%
10-yr IRR5.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +11.9%/yr vs model +10.3% · in line
CCS
Century Communities, Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.1%
Growth used6.1%
10-yr IRR5.4%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +6.1% · in line
BVS
Bioventus Inc.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.4%
Growth used9.2%
10-yr IRR5.3%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.45
Market implies +11.2%/yr vs model +9.2% · in line
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.4%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR5.3%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.25
Market implies +19.2%/yr vs model +19.4% · in line
MAN
ManpowerGroup Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield4.8%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR5.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.39
Market implies -4.4%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
DSGR
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.5%
Growth used8.7%
10-yr IRR5.3%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.91
Market implies +15.2%/yr vs model +8.7% · above model
SKY
Champion Homes, Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.1%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR5.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.26
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +5.6% · in line
BDC
BELDEN INC.
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield4.4%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR5.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.19
Market implies +14.8%/yr vs model +4.8% · above model
TSN
TYSON FOODS, INC.
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.4%
Growth used4.7%
10-yr IRR5.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.67
Market implies -2.7%/yr vs model +4.7% · below model
AZO
AUTOZONE INC
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.7%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR5.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +9.1%/yr vs model +7.6% · in line