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Verdict

Fairly valued stocks right now

Recomputed daily from each company's filings and price. Cheap can mean overlooked or it can mean trouble: open any card for the failure-warning checks and insider activity before deciding which.

Every analyzed stock in Fairly Valued — 556 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Fairly Valued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Fairly Valued" here means IRR within 5 points over Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.22% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.7% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-08). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.4% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR within 5 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +1.4 pts (966 entries, 349 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 46% of entries beat the S&P; 15% beat it by 30 points or more; 25% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.3 pts.
+1.4 ptsvs S&P, average
46%beat the S&P
15%up 30+ pts vs S&P
25%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+5.3 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−11.5 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
0.9luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.4 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.2 pts 45% beat12 mo: +1.4 pts 46% beat24 mo: −0.6 pts 40% beat3 yr, per yr: −4.7 pts 35% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today840+0.8 pts t 0.6+4.7 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)126+5.4 pts t 0.7+8.8 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing355−1.5 pts t -0.9−7.0 pts
Services132+0.3 pts t 0.1−1.0 pts
Retail & consumer117+1.8 pts t 0.5−5.6 pts
Tech hardware & semis78+7.3 pts t 0.8−0.5 pts
Other43+11.9 pts t 0.8−8.5 pts
Biotech & pharma40+15.0 pts t 0.8−6.0 pts
Finance & real estate33+2.1 pts t 0.4+0.9 pts
Medical devices31+5.8 pts t 1.3+4.4 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +3.2 pts (n 385, t 2.3). From 2018: +0.2 pts (n 581, t 0.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+5 pts+5 pts+7 pts+4 pts−3 pts+9 pts+2 pts−1 pts+0 pts+23 pts−5 pts+7 pts−10 pts−11 pts+0 pts
n32548738873758374686878807159

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

XYL
Xylem Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.2%
Growth used12.2%
10-yr IRR6.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.25
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +12.2% · in line
EYE
National Vision Holdings, Inc.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield4.2%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR6.9%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.85
Market implies +13.8%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
CDRE
Cadre Holdings, Inc.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.7%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR6.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.47
Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +9.8% · in line
AMCR
Amcor plc
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.6%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR6.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies +4.0%/yr vs model +5.9% · in line
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.0%
Growth used8.4%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.97
Market implies +6.6%/yr vs model +8.4% · in line
JBTM
JBT MAREL Corp
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield2.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +21.6% · below model
ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.5%
Growth used10.7%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.27
Market implies +12.3%/yr vs model +10.7% · in line
EQT
EQT Corp
Bond-like
Energy
Yield4.7%
Growth used5.5%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.12
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +5.5% · in line
OLED
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP PA
Bond-like
Technology
Yield4.4%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.33
Market implies +14.1%/yr vs model +6.5% · above model
AMGN
AMGEN INC
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.7%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.09
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +9.7% · in line
DPZ
DOMINOS PIZZA INC
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.9%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.80
Market implies +1.6%/yr vs model +4.8% · below model
KMX
CARMAX INC
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.9%
Growth used1.6%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.97
Market implies +14.0%/yr vs model +1.6% · above model
SYY
SYSCO CORP
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.8%
Growth used5.1%
10-yr IRR6.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +4.3%/yr vs model +5.1% · in line
PSIX
POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL, INC.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.1%
Growth used7.9%
10-yr IRR6.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.50
Market implies +20.2%/yr vs model +7.9% · above model
ADEA
Adeia Inc.
Bond-like
Communication Services
Yield5.4%
Growth used3.1%
10-yr IRR6.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.94
Market implies +18.5%/yr vs model +3.1% · above model
DAR
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC.
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.1%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR6.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.85
Market implies +2.1%/yr vs model +3.8% · in line
IOSP
INNOSPEC INC.
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield4.8%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR6.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.77
Market implies +12.0%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
VIK
Viking Holdings Ltd
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.2%
Growth used12.3%
10-yr IRR6.7%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.38
Market implies +14.7%/yr vs model +12.3% · in line
VRSN
VERISIGN INC/CA
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.3%
Growth used11.6%
10-yr IRR6.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +11.6% · below model
OSW
ONESPAWORLD HOLDINGS Ltd
Bond-like
Communication Services
Yield2.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR6.6%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +18.5%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
IBEX
IBEX Ltd
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.5%
Growth used10.5%
10-yr IRR6.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.39
Market implies +12.4%/yr vs model +10.5% · in line
BSY
BENTLEY SYSTEMS INC
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.2%
Growth used11.9%
10-yr IRR6.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +10.6%/yr vs model +11.9% · in line
WMS
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.0%
Growth used4.1%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.58
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +4.1% · above model
WWW
WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE INC /DE/
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield8.4%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.50
Market implies +8.1%/yr vs model -5.5% · above model
LH
LABCORP HOLDINGS INC.
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield4.0%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.65
Market implies +3.4%/yr vs model +7.8% · below model
ALC
ALCON INC
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.8%
Growth used8.8%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.80
Market implies +3.9%/yr vs model +8.8% · below model
H
Hyatt Hotels Corp
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield2.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +41.7%/yr vs model +21.1% · above model
UFPT
UFP TECHNOLOGIES INC
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield2.7%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.49
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +24.5% · below model
MNST
Monster Beverage Corp
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield3.8%
Growth used8.9%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies +3.9%/yr vs model +8.9% · below model
LEVI
LEVI STRAUSS & CO
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.8%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR6.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.56
Market implies +14.5%/yr vs model +4.5% · above model
DOCS
Doximity, Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.9%
Growth used13.5%
10-yr IRR6.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.95
Market implies +11.6%/yr vs model +13.5% · in line
SLP
Simulations Plus, Inc.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.0%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR6.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.69
Market implies +16.3%/yr vs model +12.7% · above model
MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc.
Bond-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.2%
Growth used6.8%
10-yr IRR6.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.09
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +6.8% · in line
PPG
PPG INDUSTRIES INC
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR6.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.95
Market implies +11.0%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
KOP
Koppers Holdings Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield5.0%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR6.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.31
Market implies +7.1%/yr vs model +3.8% · above model
CASS
CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC
Bond-like
Technology
Yield3.5%
Growth used10.0%
10-yr IRR6.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.27
Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +10.0% · in line
PBI
PITNEY BOWES INC /DE/
Bond-like
Technology
Yield5.0%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR6.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.70
Market implies -1.0%/yr vs model +3.8% · below model
TGLS
Tecnoglass Holdings Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.5%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.50
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model +9.8% · above model
WLYB
JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.
Bond-like
Communication Services
Yield6.0%
Growth used0.6%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.31
Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +0.6% · above model
NVGS
Navigator Holdings Ltd.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.1%
Growth used7.1%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.75
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +7.1% · below model
NWPX
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield3.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.62
Market implies +16.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
CVI
CVR ENERGY INC
Bond-like
Energy
Yield5.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
GD
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.9%
Growth used8.1%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +8.1% · in line
RPM
RPM INTERNATIONAL INC/DE/
Bond-like
Basic Materials
Yield4.6%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.70
Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
GLBE
Global-E Online Ltd.
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR6.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.05
Market implies +23.7%/yr vs model +25.0% · in line
CTS
CTS CORP
Bond-like
Technology
Yield4.7%
Growth used4.6%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.69
Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +4.6% · above model
NYT
NEW YORK TIMES CO
Bond-like
Communication Services
Yield3.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
BRC
BRADY CORP
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.0%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.06
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +7.5% · in line
STE
STERIS plc
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield3.5%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.82
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +9.7% · below model
DORM
Dorman Products, Inc.
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.79
Market implies +20.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
FERG
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. /DE/
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.2%
Growth used6.6%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.81
Market implies +13.2%/yr vs model +6.6% · above model
PODD
INSULET CORP
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield2.6%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR6.1%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies +7.6%/yr vs model +20.7% · below model
CWK
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
Bond-like
Real Estate
Yield5.0%
Growth used3.5%
10-yr IRR6.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.77
Market implies +11.2%/yr vs model +3.5% · above model
IMAX
IMAX CORP
Bond-like
Technology
Yield2.7%
Growth used14.0%
10-yr IRR6.0%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.19
Market implies +16.4%/yr vs model +14.0% · in line
PFE
PFIZER INC
Bond-like
Healthcare
Yield4.5%
Growth used5.1%
10-yr IRR6.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.04
Market implies +4.5%/yr vs model +5.1% · in line
VIOT
Viomi Technology Co., Ltd
Bond-like
Technology
Yield8.1%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR6.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.91
Market implies +10.5%/yr vs model -9.0% · above model
WH
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC.
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.6%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR6.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.10
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +4.9% · in line
URBN
URBAN OUTFITTERS INC
Bond-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR6.0%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.28
Market implies +10.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
MWA
Mueller Water Products, Inc.
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield4.2%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR5.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +6.4% · in line
KEX
KIRBY CORP
Bond-like
Industrials
Yield3.9%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR5.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.90
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +7.4% · in line