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Verdict

Fairly valued stocks right now

Recomputed daily from each company's filings and price. Cheap can mean overlooked or it can mean trouble: open any card for the failure-warning checks and insider activity before deciding which.

Every analyzed stock in Fairly Valued — 556 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Fairly Valued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Fairly Valued" here means IRR within 5 points over Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.22% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.7% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-08). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.4% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR within 5 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +1.4 pts (966 entries, 349 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 46% of entries beat the S&P; 15% beat it by 30 points or more; 25% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.3 pts.
+1.4 ptsvs S&P, average
46%beat the S&P
15%up 30+ pts vs S&P
25%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+5.3 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−11.5 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
0.9luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −0.4 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.2 pts 45% beat12 mo: +1.4 pts 46% beat24 mo: −0.6 pts 40% beat3 yr, per yr: −4.7 pts 35% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today840+0.8 pts t 0.6+4.7 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)126+5.4 pts t 0.7+8.8 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing355−1.5 pts t -0.9−7.0 pts
Services132+0.3 pts t 0.1−1.0 pts
Retail & consumer117+1.8 pts t 0.5−5.6 pts
Tech hardware & semis78+7.3 pts t 0.8−0.5 pts
Other43+11.9 pts t 0.8−8.5 pts
Biotech & pharma40+15.0 pts t 0.8−6.0 pts
Finance & real estate33+2.1 pts t 0.4+0.9 pts
Medical devices31+5.8 pts t 1.3+4.4 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +3.2 pts (n 385, t 2.3). From 2018: +0.2 pts (n 581, t 0.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+5 pts+5 pts+7 pts+4 pts−3 pts+9 pts+2 pts−1 pts+0 pts+23 pts−5 pts+7 pts−10 pts−11 pts+0 pts
n32548738873758374686878807159

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

SBGI
Sinclair, Inc.
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield10.0%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.07
Market implies +1.2%/yr vs model -6.2% · above model
EMN
EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield7.5%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.46
Market implies +1.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · in line
BL
BLACKLINE, INC.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.8%
Growth used12.4%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +11.4%/yr vs model +12.4% · in line
HII
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.8%
Growth used7.9%
10-yr IRR9.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.71
Market implies +0.8%/yr vs model +7.9% · below model
AMX
AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield8.4%
Growth used-2.1%
10-yr IRR8.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.34
Market implies -0.3%/yr vs model -2.1% · in line
EML
EASTERN CO
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield7.5%
Growth used-0.1%
10-yr IRR8.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.66
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model -0.1% · above model
APT
ALPHA PRO TECH LTD
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.3%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR8.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +7.3%/yr vs model +5.9% · in line
SWIM
Latham Group, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield7.5%
Growth used-0.1%
10-yr IRR8.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.25
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model -0.1% · above model
SCI
SERVICE CORP INTERNATIONAL
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.0%
Growth used7.1%
10-yr IRR8.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.72
Market implies +2.1%/yr vs model +7.1% · below model
LII
LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.0%
Growth used7.1%
10-yr IRR8.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.87
Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +7.1% · in line
NSSC
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used11.1%
10-yr IRR8.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.32
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +11.1% · in line
BFAM
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.8%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR8.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.61
Market implies +0.9%/yr vs model +7.6% · below model
TRAK
ReposiTrak, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield5.4%
Growth used5.7%
10-yr IRR8.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.90
Market implies +7.5%/yr vs model +5.7% · in line
HLN
Haleon plc
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.1%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies 0.0%/yr vs model +3.3% · below model
EMBJ
EMBRAER S.A.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.4%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.12
Market implies +7.7%/yr vs model +9.0% · in line
HD
HOME DEPOT, INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.2%
Growth used6.3%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.25
Market implies +8.0%/yr vs model +6.3% · in line
GDOT
GREEN DOT CORP
Equity-like
Financial Services
Yield4.5%
Growth used8.6%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +8.6% · below model
MORN
Morningstar, Inc.
Equity-like
Financial Services
Yield4.2%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.66
Market implies +3.8%/yr vs model +9.8% · below model
NEU
NEWMARKET CORP
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.8%
Growth used4.1%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +4.1% · in line
ARHS
Arhaus, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield3.6%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.28
Market implies +16.4%/yr vs model +12.7% · above model
ADP
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used10.6%
10-yr IRR8.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.85
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +10.6% · below model
CACI
CACI INTERNATIONAL INC /DE/
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.8%
Growth used11.8%
10-yr IRR8.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.81
Market implies +6.4%/yr vs model +11.8% · below model
PFGC
Performance Food Group Co
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.3%
Growth used5.7%
10-yr IRR8.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.84
Market implies +3.1%/yr vs model +5.7% · in line
RXT
Rackspace Technology, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.8%
Growth used7.6%
10-yr IRR8.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.33
Market implies +16.7%/yr vs model +7.6% · above model
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.1%
Growth used10.4%
10-yr IRR8.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.25
Market implies +12.0%/yr vs model +10.4% · in line
FCFS
FirstCash Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.6%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR8.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.85
Market implies +4.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
CLBT
Cellebrite DI Ltd.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.4%
Growth used13.8%
10-yr IRR8.6%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.91
Market implies +9.0%/yr vs model +13.8% · below model
BSX
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.9%
Growth used11.2%
10-yr IRR8.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.62
Market implies +3.0%/yr vs model +11.2% · below model
AKAM
AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.2%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR8.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.58
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +9.9% · in line
BAX
BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield5.0%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR8.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.20
Market implies +21.3%/yr vs model +6.4% · above model
HQI
HireQuest, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used10.8%
10-yr IRR8.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.30
Market implies +9.9%/yr vs model +10.8% · in line
FSTR
FOSTER L B CO
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield6.1%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR8.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.08
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
AYI
ACUITY INC. (DE)
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.1%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.27
Market implies +8.0%/yr vs model +6.0% · in line
MTN
VAIL RESORTS INC
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield4.3%
Growth used9.1%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.11
Market implies +9.2%/yr vs model +9.1% · in line
CCEP
COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.0%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.85
Market implies +3.4%/yr vs model +6.4% · in line
ERIE
ERIE INDEMNITY CO
Equity-like
Financial Services
Yield4.3%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +3.2%/yr vs model +9.0% · below model
WSO
WATSCO INC
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.6%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.01
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +4.3% · above model
HGTY
Hagerty, Inc.
Equity-like
Financial Services
Yield3.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.47
Market implies +7.1%/yr vs model +16.6% · below model
NTR
Nutrien Ltd.
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield6.0%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.54
Market implies +7.9%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
QRVO
Qorvo, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield5.8%
Growth used3.6%
10-yr IRR8.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +8.9%/yr vs model +3.6% · above model
FUL
FULLER H B CO
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.7%
Growth used3.9%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.83
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
SGI
SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.1%
Growth used10.1%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model +10.1% · in line
EAT
BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.3%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +3.1%/yr vs model +9.0% · below model
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield3.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.58
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +21.2% · below model
UL
UNILEVER PLC
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.1%
Growth used2.9%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.08
Market implies +3.4%/yr vs model +2.9% · in line
SNA
Snap-on Inc
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.4%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.09
Market implies +4.9%/yr vs model +4.8% · in line
MYE
MYERS INDUSTRIES INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.0%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.35
Market implies +7.8%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
LMT
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield4.9%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.06
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +6.5% · in line
IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.0%
Growth used10.3%
10-yr IRR8.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.44
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model +10.3% · above model
CBZ
CBIZ, Inc.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.5%
Growth used12.6%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.94
Market implies +9.2%/yr vs model +12.6% · below model
MTX
MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield5.6%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +4.2%/yr vs model +4.3% · in line
BDX
BECTON DICKINSON & CO
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield4.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.86
Market implies +5.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.
Equity-like
Technology
Yield3.1%
Growth used14.8%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.53
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +14.8% · below model
THC
TENET HEALTHCARE CORP
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield4.6%
Growth used7.7%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.61
Market implies +0.2%/yr vs model +7.7% · below model
MCK
MCKESSON CORP
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield4.2%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.69
Market implies +3.3%/yr vs model +9.3% · below model
CLB
Core Laboratories Inc. /DE/
Equity-like
Energy
Yield5.9%
Growth used3.2%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.95
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +3.2% · above model
CCL
Carnival Corp Ltd.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.3%
Growth used9.0%
10-yr IRR8.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.01
Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +9.0% · in line
WLDN
Willdan Group, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield4.1%
Growth used9.5%
10-yr IRR8.1%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.60
Market implies +12.4%/yr vs model +9.5% · in line
APWC
ASIA PACIFIC WIRE & CABLE CORP LTD
Equity-like
Basic Materials
Yield4.8%
Growth used6.7%
10-yr IRR8.1%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.47
Market implies +15.6%/yr vs model +6.7% · above model
FIZZ
NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield5.7%
Growth used3.8%
10-yr IRR8.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.97
Market implies +2.9%/yr vs model +3.8% · in line