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Verdict

Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Overvalued — 234 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Overvalued" here means IRR up to 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

WINA
WINMARK CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Yield3.8%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.03
Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
MCD
MCDONALDS CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Yield3.8%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.47
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
LMAT
LEMAITRE VASCULAR INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used11.9%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.02
Market implies +7.5%/yr vs model +11.9% · below model
BF-B
BROWN FORMAN CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 63 · High
Yield4.5%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.89
Market implies +0.1%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
MSI
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used10.8%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.85
Market implies +9.2%/yr vs model +10.8% · in line
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.91
Market implies +36.8%/yr vs model +25.0% · above model
DOV
DOVER Corp
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield3.9%
Growth used4.3%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.11
Market implies +9.7%/yr vs model +4.3% · above model
ATR
APTARGROUP, INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.7%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR3.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.60
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
VALU
VALUE LINE INC
Below Treasuries
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield5.1%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR3.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.38
Market implies +3.1%/yr vs model 0.0% · above model
PEP
PEPSICO INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR3.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.26
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +4.5% · in line
ASH
ASHLAND INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 68 · High
Yield5.0%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR3.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.51
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
DHX
DHI GROUP, INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR3.5%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +5.6% · above model
FFIV
F5, INC.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.1%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR3.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.82
Market implies +15.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
FIGS
FIGS, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High
Yield2.8%
Growth used9.9%
10-yr IRR3.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 4.42
Market implies +30.6%/yr vs model +9.9% · above model
NTAP
NetApp, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 61 · High
Yield3.1%
Growth used7.9%
10-yr IRR3.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.44
Market implies +20.5%/yr vs model +7.9% · above model
APPF
APPFOLIO INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 32 · Moderate
Yield2.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.5%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.65
Market implies +15.0%/yr vs model +22.9% · below model
VLO
VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield4.3%
Growth used2.5%
10-yr IRR3.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.33
Market implies +14.1%/yr vs model +2.5% · above model
APP
AppLovin Corp
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.41
Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +16.5% · above model
MTD
METTLER TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC/
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.2%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR3.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.49
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +7.5% · above model
PG
PROCTER & GAMBLE Co
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield4.2%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR3.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.42
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
PAY
Paymentus Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 33 · Moderate
Yield2.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.4%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.43
Market implies +13.2%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
COO
COOPER COMPANIES, INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used9.2%
10-yr IRR3.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.38
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +9.2% · in line
FND
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 61 · High
Yield3.1%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR3.3%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.86
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ROAD
Construction Partners, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 64 · High
Yield2.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.3%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.75
Market implies +24.3%/yr vs model +24.6% · in line
DGII
DIGI INTERNATIONAL INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.8%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR3.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.74
Market implies +16.1%/yr vs model +9.7% · above model
BHP
BHP Group Ltd
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield4.9%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR3.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.95
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
VFF
Village Farms International, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield4.9%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR3.3%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +37.8%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield3.2%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR3.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +4.1%/yr vs model +7.5% · below model
RDVT
Red Violet, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.2%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.47
Market implies +21.9%/yr vs model +17.4% · above model
ARW
ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 65 · High
Yield4.8%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR3.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.98
Market implies +18.2%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
J
JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield4.6%
Growth used0.9%
10-yr IRR3.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.56
Market implies +16.5%/yr vs model +0.9% · above model
AIT
APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield3.0%
Growth used8.1%
10-yr IRR3.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.39
Market implies +11.9%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model
AME
AMETEK INC/
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 46 · Elevated
Yield3.0%
Growth used8.2%
10-yr IRR3.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.45
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model +8.2% · above model
CXM
Sprinklr, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield2.1%
Growth used14.0%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.45
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +14.0% · above model
WDFC
WD 40 CO
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield3.4%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.58
Market implies +10.0%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
SOLS
Solstice Advanced Materials Inc.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 60 · High
Yield3.8%
Growth used3.7%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.54
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model
PLOW
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.35
Market implies +6.3%/yr vs model +5.2% · in line
TR
TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 39 · Moderate
Yield3.4%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.87
Market implies +3.7%/yr vs model +6.0% · in line
PENG
Penguin Solutions, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used8.3%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +29.3%/yr vs model +8.3% · above model
WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield5.6%
Growth used-2.5%
10-yr IRR2.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.19
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model -2.5% · above model
HAS
HASBRO, INC.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 60 · High
Yield5.7%
Growth used-2.9%
10-yr IRR2.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.93
Market implies +5.9%/yr vs model -2.9% · above model
DHR
DANAHER CORP /DE/
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used3.7%
10-yr IRR2.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.40
Market implies +8.9%/yr vs model +3.7% · above model
WLK
WESTLAKE CORP
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield4.0%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR2.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.62
Market implies -7.2%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield3.3%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR2.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.24
Market implies +8.1%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
CSW
CSW INDUSTRIALS, INC.
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Yield2.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR2.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.58
Market implies +21.0%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
RGR
STURM RUGER & CO INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield5.0%
Growth used-0.9%
10-yr IRR2.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.12
Market implies +5.9%/yr vs model -0.9% · above model
KNF
Knife River Corp
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 68 · High
Yield3.0%
Growth used7.8%
10-yr IRR2.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.85
Market implies +16.9%/yr vs model +7.8% · above model
VMI
VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used4.9%
10-yr IRR2.6%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.57
Market implies +16.3%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
EAT
BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used11.3%
10-yr IRR2.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.81
Market implies +11.5%/yr vs model +11.3% · in line
THR
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 60 · High
Yield2.3%
Growth used11.7%
10-yr IRR2.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.57
Market implies +31.5%/yr vs model +11.7% · above model
NDSN
NORDSON CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield3.3%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR2.5%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.50
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +5.6% · above model
FDX
FEDEX CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR2.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.06
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
UNP
UNION PACIFIC CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Yield3.2%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR2.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
SHW
SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.0%
Growth used7.0%
10-yr IRR2.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +12.7%/yr vs model +7.0% · above model
XYZ
Block, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield2.6%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR2.4%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.14
Market implies +25.5%/yr vs model +9.3% · above model
MATX
Matson, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 70 · High
Yield3.8%
Growth used3.1%
10-yr IRR2.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.89
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +3.1% · above model
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield1.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR2.3%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.28
Market implies +21.5%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
MSA
MSA Safety Inc
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 47 · Elevated
Yield2.8%
Growth used8.3%
10-yr IRR2.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.07
Market implies +8.9%/yr vs model +8.3% · in line
ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 63 · High
Yield3.2%
Growth used6.1%
10-yr IRR2.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.07
Market implies +14.7%/yr vs model +6.1% · above model
RFIL
R F INDUSTRIES LTD
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used9.8%
10-yr IRR2.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +33.8%/yr vs model +9.8% · above model