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Verdict

Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Overvalued — 234 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Overvalued" here means IRR up to 3 points under Treasuries (10-yr Treasury 5.00% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR below Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
No edge Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by −2.5 pts (2,338 entries, 453 companies, unlikely to be luck). 42% of entries beat the S&P; 12% beat it by 30 points or more; 29% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −4.2 pts.
−2.5 ptsvs S&P, average
42%beat the S&P
12%up 30+ pts vs S&P
29%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+1.8 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2024worst year to buy ?
-3.0luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: −1.0 pts 46% beat6 mo: −1.9 pts 42% beat12 mo: −2.5 pts 43% beat24 mo: −6.5 pts 37% beat3 yr, per yr: −5.8 pts 31% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today2,081−2.7 pts t -3.3+1.5 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)257−0.2 pts t -0.1+3.9 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing890−4.3 pts t -3.3−7.4 pts
Tech hardware & semis201+7.2 pts t 1.7−5.7 pts
Services169−7.4 pts t -3.3−8.7 pts
Retail & consumer154+0.2 pts t 0.1−3.2 pts
Medical devices140−2.8 pts t -0.9−7.1 pts
Other130−0.7 pts t -0.3−1.6 pts
Software & IT services107−0.8 pts t -0.3+0.0 pts
Biotech & pharma94−0.8 pts t -0.2−5.1 pts
Finance & real estate92−3.5 pts t -1.2−2.6 pts
Energy75−9.2 pts t -2.2−12.9 pts
Food, drink & tobacco58−8.7 pts t -1.6−10.1 pts
Utilities54−4.0 pts t -1.1−4.9 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: −0.9 pts (n 837, t -0.8). From 2018: −3.4 pts (n 1,501, t -3.0). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−4 pts+2 pts−1 pts−8 pts−2 pts+1 pts+6 pts+1 pts−11 pts+15 pts−10 pts+3 pts−12 pts−14 pts+4 pts
n32789182168173195216189183231183168185146

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

OLED
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP PA
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used6.5%
10-yr IRR5.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.33
Market implies +16.0%/yr vs model +6.5% · above model
FTI
TechnipFMC plc
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 31 · Moderate
Yield2.8%
Growth used11.9%
10-yr IRR5.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.62
Market implies +4.1%/yr vs model +11.9% · below model
TDY
TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield3.4%
Growth used8.7%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.40
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +8.7% · in line
MMSI
MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 29 · Moderate
Yield3.3%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +9.3% · in line
DIS
Walt Disney Co
Below Treasuries
Communication Services Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield3.4%
Growth used8.6%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.00
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +8.6% · in line
EXE
EXPAND ENERGY Corp
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 38 · Moderate
Yield3.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.86
Market implies +4.7%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
SWK
STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 68 · High
Yield5.7%
Growth used-0.2%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.56
Market implies +13.7%/yr vs model -0.2% · above model
NOC
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield3.6%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.87
Market implies +3.2%/yr vs model +7.5% · below model
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used8.2%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.20
Market implies +9.0%/yr vs model +8.2% · in line
STRL
STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used12.4%
10-yr IRR4.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +28.9%/yr vs model +12.4% · above model
WAB
WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORP
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used11.3%
10-yr IRR4.8%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.53
Market implies +15.7%/yr vs model +11.3% · above model
DEO
DIAGEO PLC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield4.9%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR4.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.29
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
NESR
National Energy Services Reunited Corp.
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR4.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.95
Market implies +20.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
ACLS
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield3.5%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR4.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 4.91
Market implies +26.4%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
DE
DEERE & CO
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.7%
Growth used6.6%
10-yr IRR4.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.10
Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model +6.6% · above model
Q
Qnity Electronics, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 48 · Elevated
Yield3.1%
Growth used9.6%
10-yr IRR4.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.12
Market implies +22.3%/yr vs model +9.6% · above model
TT
Trane Technologies plc
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used12.4%
10-yr IRR4.6%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.44
Market implies +13.9%/yr vs model +12.4% · in line
NGVT
Ingevity Corp
Below Treasuries
Basic Materials Risk 57 · Elevated
Yield5.5%
Growth used0.0%
10-yr IRR4.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.50
Market implies +4.7%/yr vs model +0.0% · above model
GGG
GRACO INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 40 · Elevated
Yield4.2%
Growth used4.7%
10-yr IRR4.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.14
Market implies +6.1%/yr vs model +4.7% · in line
VLTO
Veralto Corp
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 42 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR4.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.87
Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +5.8% · in line
TRNS
TRANSCAT INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 65 · High
Yield2.7%
Growth used12.0%
10-yr IRR4.6%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 3.25
Market implies +24.7%/yr vs model +12.0% · above model
MWA
Mueller Water Products, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR4.6%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +6.4% · in line
KE
Kimball Electronics, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used6.1%
10-yr IRR4.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 3.36
Market implies +22.0%/yr vs model +6.1% · above model
CCS
Century Communities, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield3.8%
Growth used6.1%
10-yr IRR4.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +6.1% · in line
RIG
Transocean Ltd.
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield3.4%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR4.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.71
Market implies +12.5%/yr vs model +8.0% · above model
GVA
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.8%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR4.5%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.50
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +6.0% · in line
ICUI
ICU MEDICAL INC/DE
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 63 · High
Yield2.6%
Growth used12.9%
10-yr IRR4.5%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.66
Market implies +25.4%/yr vs model +12.9% · above model
VCYT
VERACYTE, INC.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Yield2.3%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR4.4%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.73
Market implies +21.2%/yr vs model +19.7% · in line
CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 59 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used10.9%
10-yr IRR4.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +16.5%/yr vs model +10.9% · above model
MAN
ManpowerGroup Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 36 · Moderate
Yield4.5%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR4.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.39
Market implies -3.5%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
HON
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used5.4%
10-yr IRR4.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.56
Market implies +8.3%/yr vs model +5.4% · in line
CPIX
CUMBERLAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 60 · High
Yield3.5%
Growth used7.3%
10-yr IRR4.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.22
Market implies +7.0%/yr vs model +7.3% · in line
FLS
FLOWSERVE CORP
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used7.1%
10-yr IRR4.4%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.96
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +7.1% · above model
TDG
TransDigm Group INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.5%
Growth used13.3%
10-yr IRR4.3%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.50
Market implies +14.9%/yr vs model +13.3% · in line
USFD
US Foods Holding Corp.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Defensive Risk 34 · Moderate
Yield4.0%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR4.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.77
Market implies +2.9%/yr vs model +5.0% · in line
AWI
ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 50 · Elevated
Yield2.7%
Growth used11.7%
10-yr IRR4.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.08
Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +11.7% · in line
EXPO
EXPONENT INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used6.8%
10-yr IRR4.3%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.49
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +6.8% · above model
CVX
CHEVRON CORP
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield4.2%
Growth used3.9%
10-yr IRR4.3%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.61
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
GPC
GENUINE PARTS CO
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used6.4%
10-yr IRR4.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.89
Market implies +7.6%/yr vs model +6.4% · in line
SPXC
SPX Technologies, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used13.5%
10-yr IRR4.2%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.23
Market implies +20.1%/yr vs model +13.5% · above model
ATEN
A10 Networks, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield3.2%
Growth used8.4%
10-yr IRR4.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.94
Market implies +17.6%/yr vs model +8.4% · above model
WYY
WIDEPOINT CORP
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield2.4%
Growth used13.8%
10-yr IRR4.1%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.40
Market implies +12.8%/yr vs model +13.8% · in line
CASS
CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 54 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used5.0%
10-yr IRR4.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.36
Market implies +9.8%/yr vs model +5.0% · above model
ITT
ITT INC.
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.9%
Growth used10.2%
10-yr IRR4.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.61
Market implies +15.5%/yr vs model +10.2% · above model
PNTG
Pennant Group, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 43 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR4.1%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.13
Market implies +15.9%/yr vs model +17.8% · in line
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR4.0%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.80
Market implies +30.0%/yr vs model +24.2% · above model
MANH
MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield2.3%
Growth used14.0%
10-yr IRR4.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.32
Market implies +19.8%/yr vs model +14.0% · above model
DXCM
DEXCOM INC
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 41 · Elevated
Yield2.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR4.0%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies +13.8%/yr vs model +16.6% · in line
MPTI
M-tron Industries, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 61 · High
Yield2.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR4.0%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.01
Market implies +20.5%/yr vs model +17.2% · above model
WSM
WILLIAMS SONOMA INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 66 · High
Yield4.4%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR3.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.35
Market implies +16.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · above model
XOM
EXXON MOBIL CORP
Below Treasuries
Energy Risk 37 · Moderate
Yield4.1%
Growth used3.9%
10-yr IRR3.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.59
Market implies +9.6%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
EHC
Encompass Health Corp
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 35 · Moderate
Yield2.9%
Growth used10.2%
10-yr IRR3.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +10.2% · below model
IEX
IDEX CORP /DE/
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 53 · Elevated
Yield3.7%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR3.9%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.48
Market implies +11.1%/yr vs model +5.8% · above model
JOUT
JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield5.7%
Growth used-1.6%
10-yr IRR3.9%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.38
Market implies +0.1%/yr vs model -1.6% · in line
TSCO
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 45 · Elevated
Yield3.6%
Growth used6.0%
10-yr IRR3.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.11
Market implies +7.2%/yr vs model +6.0% · in line
GTLS
CHART INDUSTRIES INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 30 · Moderate
Yield2.2%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR3.8%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.64
Market implies +12.9%/yr vs model +25.0% · below model
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
Below Treasuries
Healthcare Risk 51 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR3.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.24
Market implies +6.9%/yr vs model +4.5% · in line
PK
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.
Below Treasuries
Consumer Cyclical Risk 44 · Elevated
Yield4.3%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR3.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.40
Market implies -7.3%/yr vs model +3.0% · below model
CLFD
Clearfield, Inc.
Below Treasuries
Technology Risk 56 · Elevated
Yield3.9%
Growth used4.7%
10-yr IRR3.8%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.86
Market implies +16.3%/yr vs model +4.7% · above model
ITW
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC
Below Treasuries
Industrials Risk 55 · Elevated
Yield3.7%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR3.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.31
Market implies +9.3%/yr vs model +5.6% · above model