Overvalued Archives

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.

"Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).

S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.

Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months

Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.

+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average

50%beat the S&P

25%up 30+ pts vs S&P

30%down 20+ pts vs S&P

+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo

−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?

6.1luck check ?

Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat

Market state at entry	Company-years	vs S&P 12 mo	vs small caps
Calm ◀ today	1,245	+7.9 pts t 4.6	+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)	182	+44.5 pts t 4.0	+40.7 pts

Sector (SEC group)	n	vs S&P 12 mo	3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing	466	+13.0 pts t 4.0	−2.2 pts
Energy	126	+7.4 pts t 1.2	−7.8 pts
Other	115	+8.4 pts t 1.8	+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis	113	+10.9 pts t 1.6	+2.3 pts
Services	96	+11.9 pts t 2.7	+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer	87	+17.2 pts t 2.1	+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate	72	−1.7 pts t -0.5	−2.4 pts
Utilities	65	+5.6 pts t 0.6	−1.2 pts
Construction	53	+13.2 pts t 1.7	−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma	44	+47.1 pts t 1.6	+10.0 pts
Telecom & media	43	+14.0 pts t 0.7	−6.3 pts
Software & IT services	35	+39.9 pts t 1.8	+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
vs S&P	+13 pts	+5 pts	+14 pts	+18 pts	−4 pts	−4 pts	+22 pts	+12 pts	−3 pts	−15 pts	+87 pts	+8 pts	+17 pts	−9 pts	−7 pts	+15 pts
n	25	43	106	101	78	84	111	81	78	99	129	72	76	108	121	115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

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