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Verdict

Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Overvalued — 234 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.
+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average
50%beat the S&P
25%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
6.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today1,245+7.9 pts t 4.6+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)182+44.5 pts t 4.0+40.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing466+13.0 pts t 4.0−2.2 pts
Energy126+7.4 pts t 1.2−7.8 pts
Other115+8.4 pts t 1.8+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis113+10.9 pts t 1.6+2.3 pts
Services96+11.9 pts t 2.7+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer87+17.2 pts t 2.1+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate72−1.7 pts t -0.5−2.4 pts
Utilities65+5.6 pts t 0.6−1.2 pts
Construction53+13.2 pts t 1.7−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma44+47.1 pts t 1.6+10.0 pts
Telecom & media43+14.0 pts t 0.7−6.3 pts
Software & IT services35+39.9 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+13 pts+5 pts+14 pts+18 pts−4 pts−4 pts+22 pts+12 pts−3 pts−15 pts+87 pts+8 pts+17 pts−9 pts−7 pts+15 pts
n254310610178841118178991297276108121115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
CTRE
CareTrust REIT, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$38.62
Model IV$33.92
P/IV1.20
Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.2%
CUBE
CubeSmart
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$39.54
Model IV$47.26
P/IV1.18
Discount 16% Return to IV: +19.5%
CUZ
COUSINS PROPERTIES INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$28.19
Model IV$21.44
P/IV1.25
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.9%
DEO
DIAGEO PLC
Overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 35 · Moderate
Price$86.80
Model IV$66.96
P/IV1.29
Premium +30% Return to IV: -22.9%
Market implies +5.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
DERM
Journey Medical Corp
Overvalued
Healthcare Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$7.23
Model IV$5.06
P/IV1.18
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
Market implies +2.2%/yr vs model +5.5% · below model
DFDVW
DeFi Development Corp.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$0.97
Model IV$0.83
P/IV1.16
Premium +16% Return to IV: -14.0%
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
DFIN
Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$48.44
Model IV$33.98
P/IV1.17
Premium +43% Return to IV: -29.8%
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +3.2% · above model
DOMO
DOMO, INC.
Overvalued
Technology Risk 62 · High
Price$3.83
Model IV$3.32
P/IV1.25
Premium +15% Return to IV: -13.2%
Market implies +5.7%/yr vs model +5.4% · in line
DTCX
Datacentrex, Inc.
Fairly valued
Technology Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$2.00
Model IV$1.98
P/IV1.17
Premium +1% Return to IV: -1.0%
Market implies +1.4%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
DTM
DT Midstream, Inc.
Overvalued
Utilities Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$128.86
Model IV$109.71
P/IV1.28
Premium +17% Return to IV: -14.9%
E
ENI SPA
Overvalued
Energy Risk 33 · Moderate
Price$55.40
Model IV$44.25
P/IV1.27
Premium +25% Return to IV: -20.1%
Market implies +4.6%/yr vs model +1.6% · in line
EBMT
Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$22.40
Model IV$18.28
P/IV1.21
Premium +23% Return to IV: -18.4%
ECVT
Ecovyst Inc.
Overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 64 · High
Price$9.92
Model IV$10.26
P/IV1.29
Discount 3% Return to IV: +3.4%
Market implies +2.4%/yr vs model +4.5% · in line
EDAP
EDAP TMS SA
Overvalued
Healthcare Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$5.43
Model IV$3.55
P/IV1.22
Premium +53% Return to IV: -34.6%
Market implies -0.8%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
EEFT
EURONET WORLDWIDE, INC.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$72.18
Model IV$62.23
P/IV1.16
Premium +16% Return to IV: -13.8%
ENGS
Energys Group Ltd
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$2.92
Model IV$1.21
P/IV1.29
Premium +142% Return to IV: -58.6%
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
EQH
Equitable Holdings, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$53.34
Model IV$32.90
P/IV1.26
Premium +62% Return to IV: -38.3%
Market implies +18.0%/yr vs model +14.3% · above model
ESCA
ESCALADE INC
Overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 62 · High
Price$19.51
Model IV$14.55
P/IV1.29
Premium +34% Return to IV: -25.4%
Market implies -1.8%/yr vs model -2.1% · in line
EWBC
EAST WEST BANCORP INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$129.17
Model IV$98.26
P/IV1.25
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.9%
EXP
EAGLE MATERIALS INC
Fairly valued
Industrials Risk 65 · High
Price$182.67
Model IV$173.47
P/IV1.28
Premium +5% Return to IV: -5.0%
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +9.7% · in line
EZBC
Franklin Templeton Digital Holdings Trust
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$45.65
Model IV$33.75
P/IV1.26
Premium +35% Return to IV: -26.1%
FCAP
FIRST CAPITAL INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$62.65
Model IV$48.50
P/IV1.27
Premium +29% Return to IV: -22.6%
FCCO
FIRST COMMUNITY CORP /SC/
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$34.23
Model IV$23.54
P/IV1.28
Premium +45% Return to IV: -31.2%
FDMT
4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Healthcare Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$13.17
Model IV$8.25
P/IV1.20
Premium +60% Return to IV: -37.4%
Market implies +5.4%/yr vs model +47.4% · below model
FELE
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC CO INC
Overvalued
Technology Risk 60 · High
Price$97.83
Model IV$80.89
P/IV1.22
Premium +21% Return to IV: -17.3%
Market implies +9.7%/yr vs model +8.9% · in line
FFIC
FLUSHING FINANCIAL CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$15.49
Model IV$13.70
P/IV1.17
Premium +13% Return to IV: -11.6%
FGBI
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$8.36
Model IV$8.16
P/IV1.17
Premium +2% Return to IV: -2.4%
FHB
FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC.
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$25.76
Model IV$23.02
P/IV1.17
Premium +12% Return to IV: -10.6%
FHN
FIRST HORIZON CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$24.47
Model IV$18.75
P/IV1.29
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.4%
FIBK
FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$36.92
Model IV$28.40
P/IV1.25
Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.1%
FITB
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 71 · High
Price$54.72
Model IV$40.54
P/IV1.23
Premium +35% Return to IV: -25.9%
FIZZ
NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP
Overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 30 · Moderate
Price$31.81
Model IV$25.13
P/IV1.23
Premium +27% Return to IV: -21.0%
Market implies +5.0%/yr vs model +2.2% · in line
FLG
FLAGSTAR BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$13.18
Model IV$11.89
P/IV1.18
Premium +11% Return to IV: -9.8%
FMAO
FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$35.47
Model IV$22.58
P/IV1.24
Premium +57% Return to IV: -36.3%
FMBH
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$51.02
Model IV$38.12
P/IV1.16
Premium +34% Return to IV: -25.3%
FNKO
Funko, Inc.
Overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$5.47
Model IV$4.31
P/IV1.21
Premium +27% Return to IV: -21.2%
Market implies +6.8%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
FNRN
FIRST NORTHERN COMMUNITY BANCORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$17.38
Model IV$14.43
P/IV1.19
Premium +20% Return to IV: -17.0%
FOX
Fox Corp
Overvalued
Communication Services Risk 38 · Moderate
Price$60.34
Model IV$47.21
P/IV1.28
Premium +28% Return to IV: -21.8%
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +4.3% · in line
FRAF
FRANKLIN FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP /PA/
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 65 · High
Price$63.54
Model IV$47.05
P/IV1.24
Premium +35% Return to IV: -26.0%
FRST
Primis Financial Corp.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$16.15
Model IV$11.39
P/IV1.27
Premium +42% Return to IV: -29.5%
FSBC
FIVE STAR BANCORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 45 · Elevated
Price$45.55
Model IV$35.80
P/IV1.18
Premium +27% Return to IV: -21.4%
FTV
Fortive Corp
Overvalued
Healthcare Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$55.19
Model IV$45.34
P/IV1.29
Premium +22% Return to IV: -17.8%
Market implies +5.4%/yr vs model +3.3% · in line
FUN
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW
Overvalued
Communication Services Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$13.12
Model IV$17.91
P/IV1.17
Discount 27% Return to IV: +36.5%
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
GDRX
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$3.56
Model IV$2.44
P/IV1.20
Premium +46% Return to IV: -31.6%
Market implies +11.2%/yr vs model +8.2% · above model
GILT
GILAT SATELLITE NETWORKS LTD
Deeply undervalued
Technology Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$9.89
Model IV$14.75
P/IV1.16
Discount 33% Return to IV: +49.1%
Market implies -2.6%/yr vs model +20.4% · below model
GRC
GORMAN RUPP CO
Overvalued
Industrials Risk 50 · Elevated
Price$74.47
Model IV$64.18
P/IV1.17
Premium +16% Return to IV: -13.8%
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +12.9% · in line
GWRS
Global Water Resources, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Utilities Risk 64 · High
Price$8.71
Model IV$5.65
P/IV1.29
Premium +54% Return to IV: -35.1%
HBANM
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC /MD/
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$19.88
Model IV$18.34
P/IV1.17
Premium +8% Return to IV: -7.7%
HFBL
Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$25.00
Model IV$16.56
P/IV1.18
Premium +51% Return to IV: -33.8%
HFFG
HF Foods Group Inc.
Valuation N/A
Consumer Defensive Risk 27 · Moderate
Price$1.66
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +9.5% · below model
HFWA
HERITAGE FINANCIAL CORP /WA/
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$28.41
Model IV$21.38
P/IV1.27
Premium +33% Return to IV: -24.7%
HTB
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$48.30
Model IV$35.76
P/IV1.30
Premium +35% Return to IV: -26.0%
HWC
HANCOCK WHITNEY CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$75.25
Model IV$58.36
P/IV1.17
Premium +29% Return to IV: -22.4%
IART
INTEGRA LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS CORP
Overvalued
Healthcare Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$15.50
Model IV$13.17
P/IV1.22
Premium +18% Return to IV: -15.0%
Market implies +6.2%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model
IBEX
IBEX Ltd
Overvalued
Technology Risk 48 · Elevated
Price$39.80
Model IV$27.39
P/IV1.16
Premium +45% Return to IV: -31.2%
Market implies +13.3%/yr vs model +11.6% · in line
IDA
IDACORP INC
Overvalued
Utilities Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$135.54
Model IV$119.36
P/IV1.18
Premium +14% Return to IV: -11.9%
IDT
IDT CORP
Overvalued
Communication Services Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$70.51
Model IV$45.70
P/IV1.21
Premium +54% Return to IV: -35.2%
Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +0.4% · above model
IMAX
IMAX CORP
Overvalued
Technology Risk 41 · Elevated
Price$52.09
Model IV$33.32
P/IV1.19
Premium +56% Return to IV: -36.0%
Market implies +16.6%/yr vs model +14.0% · in line
INDB
INDEPENDENT BANK CORP
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$82.74
Model IV$62.38
P/IV1.27
Premium +33% Return to IV: -24.6%
ISTR
Investar Holding Corp
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$30.87
Model IV$22.76
P/IV1.24
Premium +36% Return to IV: -26.3%