← All verdicts
Verdict

Overvalued

Every analyzed stock in Overvalued — 234 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Overvalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: price against our probability-weighted DCF value (P/IV). Its own forward record began accruing on 2026-09-10 (daily snapshots); until a year of it exists, the panel below tests the nearest cousin we can measure point-in-time — cheap on book value — and says so.

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 3.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-09-16). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 7.2% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Proxy: price-to-book ≤ 1.2 (undervalued band has no point-in-time history yet) · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Probable Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +12.6 pts (1,427 entries, 311 companies, very unlikely to be luck). 50% of entries beat the S&P; 25% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is +10.9 pts.
+12.6 ptsvs S&P, average
50%beat the S&P
25%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+14.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−15.1 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
6.1luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +2.3 pts 49% beat6 mo: +4.6 pts 49% beat12 mo: +12.6 pts 50% beat24 mo: +21.8 pts 46% beat3 yr, per yr: +1.3 pts 40% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today1,245+7.9 pts t 4.6+10.1 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)182+44.5 pts t 4.0+40.7 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing466+13.0 pts t 4.0−2.2 pts
Energy126+7.4 pts t 1.2−7.8 pts
Other115+8.4 pts t 1.8+3.8 pts
Tech hardware & semis113+10.9 pts t 1.6+2.3 pts
Services96+11.9 pts t 2.7+12.2 pts
Retail & consumer87+17.2 pts t 2.1+10.2 pts
Finance & real estate72−1.7 pts t -0.5−2.4 pts
Utilities65+5.6 pts t 0.6−1.2 pts
Construction53+13.2 pts t 1.7−2.4 pts
Biotech & pharma44+47.1 pts t 1.6+10.0 pts
Telecom & media43+14.0 pts t 0.7−6.3 pts
Software & IT services35+39.9 pts t 1.8+1.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +10.7 pts (n 629, t 6.0). From 2018: +14.0 pts (n 798, t 4.1). Same sign in both halves.

Year2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P+13 pts+5 pts+14 pts+18 pts−4 pts−4 pts+22 pts+12 pts−3 pts−15 pts+87 pts+8 pts+17 pts−9 pts−7 pts+15 pts
n254310610178841118178991297276108121115

Read the research behind this screen: Price-to-book still sorts, across all sizes → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Our model values are recomputed daily but were never stored historically, so this band cannot be backtested honestly yet. Daily snapshots began 2026-09-10; a true record accrues from there. Until then the nearest tested cousin is shown — cheap on book value — and labelled as a proxy. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

Sort by: A–Z Riskiest Most overvalued Most shorted Buyers' strike Largest
RL
RALPH LAUREN CORP
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$341.43
Model IV$298.16
P/IV1.22
Premium +15% Return to IV: -12.7%
Market implies +11.3%/yr vs model +11.2% · in line
RMBI
Richmond Mutual Bancorporation, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 65 · High
Price$15.90
Model IV$11.17
P/IV1.30
Premium +42% Return to IV: -29.8%
ROCK
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Basic Materials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$46.16
Model IV$32.29
P/IV1.20
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.0%
Market implies +2.9%/yr vs model +0.0% · in line
SAFE
Safehold Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$14.03
Model IV$11.57
P/IV1.29
Premium +21% Return to IV: -17.5%
SAFT
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 64 · High
Price$103.42
Model IV$56.19
P/IV1.25
Premium +84% Return to IV: -45.7%
SCVL
SHOE CARNIVAL INC
Fairly valued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$14.49
Model IV$14.55
P/IV1.22
Discount 0% Return to IV: +0.4%
Market implies -0.8%/yr vs model +0.6% · in line
SCYX
SCYNEXIS INC
Valuation N/A
Healthcare Risk 55 · Elevated
Price$4.84
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies +23.2%/yr vs model +11.9% · above model
SFBC
Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$48.00
Model IV$32.88
P/IV1.27
Premium +46% Return to IV: -31.5%
SHEN
SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CO/VA/
Fairly valued
Communication Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$11.63
Model IV$12.66
P/IV1.26
Discount 8% Return to IV: +8.8%
Market implies -6.1%/yr vs model +9.9% · below model
SIBN
SI-BONE, Inc.
Overvalued
Healthcare Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$18.38
Model IV$10.92
P/IV1.29
Premium +68% Return to IV: -40.6%
Market implies +3.9%/yr vs model +22.2% · below model
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$56.74
Model IV$35.35
P/IV1.25
Premium +61% Return to IV: -37.7%
SKY
Champion Homes, Inc.
Overvalued
Industrials Risk 46 · Elevated
Price$83.16
Model IV$63.26
P/IV1.16
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.9%
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +5.2% · above model
SMA
SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$32.12
Model IV$24.88
P/IV1.26
Premium +29% Return to IV: -22.5%
SNA
Snap-on Inc
Overvalued
Industrials Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$375.44
Model IV$313.59
P/IV1.18
Premium +20% Return to IV: -16.5%
Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
SRE
SEMPRA
Overvalued
Utilities Risk 42 · Elevated
Price$83.34
Model IV$76.93
P/IV1.16
Premium +8% Return to IV: -7.7%
SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
Fairly valued
Industrials Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$173.03
Model IV$152.43
P/IV1.24
Premium +14% Return to IV: -11.9%
Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +10.0% · in line
STAG
STAG Industrial, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$37.14
Model IV$29.39
P/IV1.29
Premium +26% Return to IV: -20.9%
STBA
S&T BANCORP INC
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$50.53
Model IV$37.98
P/IV1.19
Premium +33% Return to IV: -24.8%
SUGP
SU Group Holdings Ltd
Valuation N/A
Technology Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$0.65
Model IV—
P/IV—
Market implies -50.0%/yr vs model +15.0% · below model
TBCH
Turtle Beach Corp
Overvalued
Technology Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$12.81
Model IV$11.27
P/IV1.16
Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.0%
Market implies +2.1%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
TCBK
TRICO BANCSHARES /
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$53.64
Model IV$41.30
P/IV1.23
Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.0%
TDS
TELEPHONE & DATA SYSTEMS INC /DE/
Overvalued
Communication Services Risk 62 · High
Price$37.83
Model IV$31.59
P/IV1.24
Premium +20% Return to IV: -16.5%
Market implies +8.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
TETH
21Shares Ethereum ETF
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$12.67
Model IV$7.87
P/IV1.28
Premium +61% Return to IV: -37.9%
TGT
TARGET CORP
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 65 · High
Price$155.83
Model IV$98.23
P/IV1.29
Premium +59% Return to IV: -37.0%
Market implies +10.4%/yr vs model +4.9% · above model
THG
HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$225.84
Model IV$157.49
P/IV1.18
Premium +43% Return to IV: -30.3%
TRAW
Traws Pharma, Inc.
Deeply undervalued
Healthcare Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$0.56
Model IV$1.16
P/IV1.26
Discount 51% Return to IV: +104.7%
Market implies -13.3%/yr vs model +50.0% · below model
TRMK
TRUSTMARK CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$46.98
Model IV$37.24
P/IV1.19
Premium +26% Return to IV: -20.7%
TROW
PRICE T ROWE GROUP INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 54 · Elevated
Price$106.29
Model IV$82.18
P/IV1.27
Premium +29% Return to IV: -22.7%
Market implies +7.0%/yr vs model +3.9% · above model
TRV
TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 56 · Elevated
Price$378.05
Model IV$230.59
P/IV1.27
Premium +64% Return to IV: -39.0%
TSBK
TIMBERLAND BANCORP INC
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 69 · High
Price$46.47
Model IV$37.50
P/IV1.20
Premium +24% Return to IV: -19.3%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$181.12
Model IV$139.06
P/IV1.30
Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.2%
Market implies +14.0%/yr vs model +13.6% · in line
UBCP
UNITED BANCORP INC /OH/
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$15.40
Model IV$12.56
P/IV1.23
Premium +23% Return to IV: -18.4%
UBSI
UNITED BANKSHARES INC/WV
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 65 · High
Price$47.22
Model IV$34.82
P/IV1.25
Premium +36% Return to IV: -26.3%
UL
UNILEVER PLC
Overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 52 · Elevated
Price$63.57
Model IV$50.95
P/IV1.22
Premium +25% Return to IV: -19.9%
Market implies +4.7%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
UMBF
UMB FINANCIAL CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$139.49
Model IV$125.64
P/IV1.18
Premium +11% Return to IV: -9.9%
UNP
UNION PACIFIC CORP
Deeply overvalued
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Price$284.40
Model IV$216.52
P/IV1.21
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.9%
Market implies +8.8%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
UPS
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC
Fairly valued
Industrials Risk 51 · Elevated
Price$102.35
Model IV$89.91
P/IV1.19
Premium +14% Return to IV: -12.2%
Market implies +5.1%/yr vs model +3.8% · in line
URBN
URBAN OUTFITTERS INC
Deeply overvalued
Consumer Cyclical Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$78.58
Model IV$57.36
P/IV1.27
Premium +37% Return to IV: -27.0%
Market implies +12.3%/yr vs model +9.9% · in line
UTI
UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC
Overvalued
Consumer Defensive Risk 39 · Moderate
Price$20.31
Model IV$31.35
P/IV1.19
Discount 35% Return to IV: +54.4%
Market implies +9.0%/yr vs model +19.5% · below model
UVSP
UNIVEST FINANCIAL Corp
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 62 · High
Price$42.67
Model IV$30.58
P/IV1.29
Premium +40% Return to IV: -28.3%
VLY
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$13.80
Model IV$12.04
P/IV1.24
Premium +15% Return to IV: -12.8%
VOYA
Voya Financial, Inc.
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 49 · Elevated
Price$103.14
Model IV$68.72
P/IV1.18
Premium +50% Return to IV: -33.4%
WABC
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$59.95
Model IV$50.69
P/IV1.19
Premium +18% Return to IV: -15.5%
WBS
WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 58 · Elevated
Price$77.57
Model IV$59.42
P/IV1.22
Premium +31% Return to IV: -23.4%
WERN
WERNER ENTERPRISES INC
Overvalued
Industrials Risk 60 · High
Price$37.58
Model IV$32.61
P/IV1.27
Premium +15% Return to IV: -13.2%
Market implies +1.9%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
WFC
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 47 · Elevated
Price$90.29
Model IV$64.94
P/IV1.19
Premium +39% Return to IV: -28.1%
WRB
BERKLEY W R CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 53 · Elevated
Price$69.90
Model IV$54.27
P/IV1.17
Premium +29% Return to IV: -22.4%
WSBC
WESBANCO INC
Fairly valued
Financial Services Risk 57 · Elevated
Price$40.38
Model IV$36.60
P/IV1.16
Premium +10% Return to IV: -9.4%
WSFS
WSFS FINANCIAL CORP
Deeply overvalued
Financial Services Risk 67 · High
Price$80.64
Model IV$56.58
P/IV1.26
Premium +43% Return to IV: -29.8%
WT
WisdomTree, Inc.
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$23.93
Model IV$14.89
P/IV1.28
Premium +61% Return to IV: -37.8%
Market implies +15.9%/yr vs model +11.4% · above model
WTFC
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORP
Overvalued
Financial Services Risk 59 · Elevated
Price$152.16
Model IV$117.18
P/IV1.28
Premium +30% Return to IV: -23.0%
XYL
Xylem Inc.
Overvalued
Industrials Risk 44 · Elevated
Price$106.96
Model IV$87.91
P/IV1.25
Premium +22% Return to IV: -17.8%
Market implies +12.2%/yr vs model +12.2% · in line
YOUL
Youlife Group Inc.
Fairly valued
Consumer Defensive Risk 43 · Elevated
Price$0.44
Model IV$0.41
P/IV1.28
Premium +9% Return to IV: -8.3%
Market implies +1.6%/yr vs model +5.0% · below model
ZIP
ZIPRECRUITER, INC.
Deeply overvalued
Technology Risk 74 · High
Price$3.86
Model IV$2.54
P/IV1.27
Premium +52% Return to IV: -34.2%
Market implies +11.0%/yr vs model +2.0% · above model