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Verdict

Undervalued stocks right now

Recomputed daily from each company's filings and price. Cheap can mean overlooked or it can mean trouble: open any card for the failure-warning checks and insider activity before deciding which.

Every analyzed stock in Undervalued — 229 companies. Each card shows price, our model's intrinsic value (IV), and how far price sits above or below it. Click any card for the full analysis. This is a research-triage view, not a buy/sell signal.

Educational use only — not investment advice. "Undervalued / fairly valued / overvalued" and every risk score reflect our models vs. price, which can be wrong or based on stale or incomplete data. Always review the company's own financials and SEC filings, and consult a licensed advisor, before acting.
"Undervalued" by: Model value (price vs DCF) Owner-earnings return (equity bond)

This lens: each stock is priced as a bond whose coupon is its owner earnings (operating cash flow − all capex − stock compensation, three-year average) growing at the model's capped rate; "Undervalued" here means IRR 5–10 points over Treasuries on a believable coupon (yield ≤ 25%) (10-yr Treasury 5.22% today). Full cross-comparison table →

Market state today: Calm — the S&P 500 closed 0.1% below its 1-year high (as of 2026-10-09). Our rule, the same one used to split every backtest on this site: sell-off = 10% or more below the 1-year high, borderline from 5%, calm otherwise. A further 9.9% fall from here would put us in a sell-off. Since 2006 the market has been in a sell-off 16.6% of the time, across 13 episodes (red bands).
2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
S&P 500 (SPY, adjusted) distance from its trailing 1-year high, weekly. Amber band: borderline (−5% to −10%). Red band: sell-off (below −10%). The dot is today. History to 2026-08-19 from the research database; today from the live feed.
Backtest · point in time · 8,702 entries in the study

Does this screen work? The record for exactly these filters

Screen tested: Owner-earnings 10-yr IRR 5–10 points over Treasuries · bought the day of the annual report, held 12 months
Could be luck ●●●●● Buy every company that met this screen on the day it filed its annual report, hold 12 months: on average it beat the S&P 500 by +1.0 pts (620 entries, 292 companies, indistinguishable from luck). 45% of entries beat the S&P; 15% beat it by 30 points or more; 30% trailed it by 20 points or more. Owning everything instead averaged +1.7 pts, so the screen's edge is −0.7 pts.
+1.0 ptsvs S&P, average
45%beat the S&P
15%up 30+ pts vs S&P
30%down 20+ pts vs S&P
+4.0 ptsvs small caps, 12 mo
−14.4 pts 2019worst year to buy ?
0.6luck check ?
Does the holding period matter?3 mo: +0.4 pts 49% beat6 mo: −0.6 pts 46% beat12 mo: +1.0 pts 45% beat24 mo: +1.5 pts 39% beat3 yr, per yr: −4.9 pts 34% beat
Market state at entryCompany-yearsvs S&P 12 movs small caps
Calm ◀ today543+0.5 pts t 0.3+3.8 pts
Sell-off (S&P ≥10% off high)77+4.9 pts t 0.9+5.4 pts
Sector (SEC group)nvs S&P 12 mo3 yrs / yr
Industrials & manufacturing222−1.1 pts t -0.4−8.9 pts
Services71+5.3 pts t 1.1−0.2 pts
Retail & consumer62+0.4 pts t 0.1−8.2 pts
Tech hardware & semis50+2.6 pts t 0.4−6.0 pts
Other33−3.0 pts t -0.4−4.0 pts
Energy25−2.8 pts t -0.3−6.2 pts

Holds up out of sample? Before 2018: +0.2 pts (n 268, t 0.1). From 2018: +1.6 pts (n 352, t 0.7). Same sign in both halves.

Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
vs S&P−6 pts−4 pts−1 pts−3 pts−1 pts+4 pts+3 pts+1 pts−14 pts+19 pts+14 pts+2 pts−11 pts−8 pts+9 pts
n42234525650503440424749454649

Read the research behind this screen: Ranking companies as equity bonds: the top fifth beats the bottom fifth by a wide margin → · Test your own combination in the Screen Lab →

Same definitions as the table: coupon = 3-yr average owner earnings, growth capped, 15× exit. Historical IRR uses a 5-yr revenue CAGR as the growth proxy where the DCF rate is not available point-in-time. Point-in-time: each entry is one company bought at the first close after its 10-K filing date, using only filings available that day, held 12 months; result = total return minus SPY over the same months (vs IWM for 12 months; 3-yr annualised). Survivorship-tilted universe; no costs; read spreads, not levels. Educational, hypothetical, before costs.

INSW
International Seaways, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield8.9%
Growth used0.8%
10-yr IRR12.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +5.5%/yr vs model +0.8% · above model
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.0%
Growth used11.6%
10-yr IRR12.2%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.89
Market implies +8.7%/yr vs model +11.6% · in line
PNR
PENTAIR plc
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield7.6%
Growth used3.6%
10-yr IRR12.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.23
Market implies +1.9%/yr vs model +3.6% · in line
BLBD
Blue Bird Corp
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.0%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR12.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.49
Market implies +10.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
NSP
INSPERITY, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield6.0%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR12.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.36
Market implies -3.9%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
NCT
Intercont (Cayman) Ltd
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield12.1%
Growth used-5.0%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.61
Market implies -3.7%/yr vs model -6.6% · in line
TNC
TENNANT CO
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield7.6%
Growth used3.5%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 3.48
Market implies +15.4%/yr vs model +3.5% · above model
UG
UNITED GUARDIAN INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive
Yield8.2%
Growth used2.0%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.11
Market implies -0.5%/yr vs model +2.0% · in line
FDS
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.9%
Growth used11.4%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.72
Market implies +5.4%/yr vs model +11.4% · below model
OXY
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/
Rich — check why
Energy
Yield8.5%
Growth used1.5%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.03
Market implies +2.0%/yr vs model +1.5% · in line
UTMD
UTAH MEDICAL PRODUCTS INC
Rich — check why
Healthcare
Yield6.9%
Growth used5.2%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.33
Market implies +6.2%/yr vs model +5.2% · in line
PEGA
PEGASYSTEMS INC
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield5.2%
Growth used10.3%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.00
Market implies +8.6%/yr vs model +10.3% · in line
AMX
AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/
Rich — check why
Communication Services
Yield8.7%
Growth used0.8%
10-yr IRR12.0%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.01
Market implies +0.8%/yr vs model +0.8% · in line
HSTM
HEALTHSTREAM INC
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield5.4%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR11.9%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies +8.2%/yr vs model +9.7% · in line
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield5.6%
Growth used8.9%
10-yr IRR11.9%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.61
Market implies +0.0%/yr vs model +8.9% · below model
HQY
HEALTHEQUITY, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.3%
Growth used14.0%
10-yr IRR11.9%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.78
Market implies +8.3%/yr vs model +14.0% · below model
PARR
PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC.
Rich — check why
Energy
Yield5.9%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.30
Market implies -4.3%/yr vs model +8.0% · below model
FPH
Five Point Holdings, LLC
Rich — check why
Real Estate
Yield7.3%
Growth used4.0%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.30
Market implies +4.9%/yr vs model +4.0% · in line
BCC
BOISE CASCADE Co
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield7.8%
Growth used2.6%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.52
Market implies -7.6%/yr vs model +2.6% · below model
PHIN
PHINIA INC.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.5%
Growth used6.2%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.92
Market implies +3.3%/yr vs model +6.2% · in line
VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Financial Services
Yield4.7%
Growth used12.2%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +9.7%/yr vs model +12.2% · in line
CXT
Crane NXT, Co.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield6.6%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.02
Market implies +5.8%/yr vs model +5.8% · in line
WLKP
Westlake Chemical Partners LP
Rich — check why
Basic Materials
Yield7.6%
Growth used3.2%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.25
Market implies +4.9%/yr vs model +3.2% · in line
MATV
Mativ Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Basic Materials
Yield7.4%
Growth used3.6%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.22
Market implies +4.2%/yr vs model +3.6% · in line
SE
Sea Ltd
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 0.72
Market implies +6.7%/yr vs model +15.4% · below model
CARG
CarGurus, Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.5%
Growth used12.7%
10-yr IRR11.8%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.55
Market implies +0.4%/yr vs model +12.7% · below model
MZTI
MARZETTI CO
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive
Yield6.4%
Growth used6.3%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.47
Market implies -5.2%/yr vs model +6.3% · below model
LNN
LINDSAY CORP
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield7.0%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.79
Market implies +0.2%/yr vs model +4.5% · below model
CHWY
Chewy, Inc.
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.6%
Growth used8.6%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.55
Market implies +12.1%/yr vs model +8.6% · above model
UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield5.8%
Growth used8.0%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.34
Market implies +10.2%/yr vs model +8.0% · in line
MCRI
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.4%
Growth used9.3%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.76
Market implies +3.2%/yr vs model +9.3% · below model
FOX
Fox Corp
Rich — check why
Communication Services
Yield7.6%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR11.7%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.30
Market implies +5.6%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
PCTY
Paylocity Holding Corp
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.6%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.44
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +20.1% · below model
NXT
Nextpower Inc.
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.0%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.6%
Grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.68
Market implies +22.2%/yr vs model +21.1% · in line
ECVT
Ecovyst Inc.
Rich — check why
Basic Materials
Yield6.9%
Growth used4.5%
10-yr IRR11.6%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.29
Market implies +2.5%/yr vs model +4.5% · in line
CRH
CRH PUBLIC LTD CO
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield5.2%
Growth used10.0%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.57
Market implies +10.3%/yr vs model +10.0% · in line
SLB
SLB LIMITED/NV
Rich — check why
Energy
Yield6.3%
Growth used6.3%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.94
Market implies +3.6%/yr vs model +6.3% · in line
LOGI
LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A.
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield5.9%
Growth used7.5%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.24
Market implies +8.4%/yr vs model +7.5% · in line
BBCP
Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield6.4%
Growth used5.9%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 2.26
Market implies +14.5%/yr vs model +5.9% · above model
EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield5.5%
Growth used8.5%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.74
Market implies +2.4%/yr vs model +8.5% · below model
MGNI
MAGNITE, INC.
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield4.7%
Growth used11.4%
10-yr IRR11.5%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.41
Market implies +22.1%/yr vs model +11.4% · above model
TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
Rich — check why
Communication Services
Yield7.6%
Growth used2.8%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.68
Market implies -2.8%/yr vs model +2.8% · below model
SFD
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Defensive
Yield7.4%
Growth used3.2%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.56
Market implies -8.2%/yr vs model +3.2% · below model
ARX
Accelerant Holdings
Rich — check why
Financial Services
Yield8.0%
Growth used1.9%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 3 yrs positive P/IV 1.37
Market implies +6.0%/yr vs model +1.9% · above model
PCAR
PACCAR INC
Rich — check why
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.4%
Growth used5.8%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.19
Market implies +6.2%/yr vs model +5.8% · in line
HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield7.3%
Growth used3.3%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV —
Market implies +26.3%/yr vs model +3.3% · above model
CVCO
CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC.
Rich — check why
Industrials
Yield4.7%
Growth used11.4%
10-yr IRR11.4%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.03
Market implies +9.4%/yr vs model +11.4% · in line
SND
Smart Sand, Inc.
Rich — check why
Basic Materials
Yield6.5%
Growth used5.3%
10-yr IRR11.3%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 0.96
Market implies +2.1%/yr vs model +5.3% · below model
LQDT
LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC
Rich — check why
Technology
Yield3.9%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.3%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.97
Market implies +14.2%/yr vs model +17.2% · in line
OPCH
Option Care Health, Inc.
Rich — check why
Healthcare
Yield4.8%
Growth used11.0%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.74
Market implies +8.5%/yr vs model +11.0% · in line
DAKT
DAKTRONICS INC /SD/
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield5.6%
Growth used8.1%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Moderate grower · 3 yrs positive P/IV 2.17
Market implies +16.6%/yr vs model +8.1% · above model
VIV
TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A.
Equity-like
Communication Services
Yield10.1%
Growth used-2.7%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.04
Market implies -3.0%/yr vs model -2.7% · in line
LOW
LOWES COMPANIES INC
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.7%
Growth used4.8%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.88
Market implies +1.8%/yr vs model +4.8% · in line
IBM
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP
Equity-like
Technology
Yield5.1%
Growth used9.7%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.98
Market implies +7.4%/yr vs model +9.7% · in line
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
Equity-like
Consumer Cyclical
Yield6.4%
Growth used5.6%
10-yr IRR11.2%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.94
Market implies +3.5%/yr vs model +5.6% · in line
ERII
Energy Recovery, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.4%
Growth used8.5%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Moderate grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 2.86
Market implies +18.5%/yr vs model +8.5% · above model
HRL
HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/
Equity-like
Consumer Defensive
Yield7.3%
Growth used3.0%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Steady compounder · 5 yrs positive P/IV 1.04
Market implies +0.7%/yr vs model +3.0% · in line
NBIX
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC
Equity-like
Healthcare
Yield3.8%
Growth used15.0%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Grower · 5 yrs positive P/IV 0.65
Market implies +8.9%/yr vs model +21.2% · below model
SITE
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.
Equity-like
Industrials
Yield5.8%
Growth used7.4%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Moderate grower · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.11
Market implies +6.5%/yr vs model +7.4% · in line
BTU
PEABODY ENERGY CORP
Equity-like
Energy
Yield8.6%
Growth used0.1%
10-yr IRR11.1%
Steady compounder · 4 yrs positive P/IV 1.21
Market implies +2.9%/yr vs model +0.1% · in line